How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns

We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms’ monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information. Only passive net buying follows negative returns, consistent with traders providing liquidity and benefiting from the reversal of transitory price movements. These actions contribute to market efficiency.     

The Pricing of Default-free Interest Rate Cap,Floor, and Collar Agreements

The paper focuses on the valuation of caps, floors, and collars in a contingent claim framework under continuous time. These instruments are interpreted as options on traded zero coupon bonds. The bond prices themselves are used as the underlying stochastic variables. This has the advantage that we end up with closed form solutions which are easy to compute. Special attention is devoted to the choice of the stochastic process appropriate for the price dynamics of the underlying zero coupon bonds.     

COLLEGE MAJOR CHOICE AND CHANGES IN THE GENDER WAGE GAP

The distribution of college majors changed markedly between the 1970s and 1980s as fewer students completed degrees in low-skill fields such as education and letters and more graduated in high-skill fields such as engineering and business. This shift was most dramatic for females, who previously were concentrated in low-skill fields relative to those of males. This paper examines how this education-related skill upgrade, as represented by changes in the major distribution, affected the gender wage gap for college graduates during the 1980s. The results show that convergence in major distribution between males and females contributed to a decline in the gender wage gap for college graduates.     

Investment Policy and Exit-Exchange Offers Within Financially Distressed Firms

This article examines the conflict of interest between shareholders and bondholders in a setting in which firms can renegotiate the terms of existing debt with public debtholders. In particular, we consider one of the most common types of debt restructuring: the exit-exchange offer. Our analysis explores the relation between exit-exchange offers and investment choice by the manager, and it concludes that managers, acting strategically on behalf of shareholders, may select inefficient investment projects in order to enhance their bargaining position vis-a-vis creditors. Holding the upside potential of an investment project fixed, managers/shareholders prefer projects with lower payoffs in states of bankruptcy because it induces individual bondholders to accept poorer terms in a debt-for-debt exit-exchange offer, thus generating a greater residual for shareholders in states of solvency. Additionally, we show how the investment inefficiencies in our analysis depend on (i) the inability of bondholders to coordinate their actions; (ii) the ability of managers to commit to suboptimal investment projects; and (iii) the coupling of an individual bondholder's decision to tender and her decision to consent to allow the firm to strip fiduciary covenants. We suggest conditions under which a ban on coupled exit-exchange offers—or alternatively, constraints on “debt-for-debt” exchanges—would be efficiency-enhancing.     

THE IMPACT OF NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FIRM VALUE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCING INDUSTRIES: AN EXAMINATION OF INDUSTRY-LEVEL EVOLUTIONARY ERAS

We explored the market reaction to new IT product announcements by the hard drive manufacturing industry in relation to that industry's evolutionary cycle of innovation. In the short-term, there was no effect. In the long-term however, announcements made during an era of incremental technical change had more favorable reactions than announcements made during an era of ferment EXCEPT where those announcements represented an attempt to develop the emerging technology rather than further developing the existing dominant design.     

Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in the New Keynesian model and analyze optimal policy under uncertainty about private sector expectations and the degree of inflation persistence. The novel result of our paper is that for large deviations of inflation from its target, the active learning policy is less activist—in the sense of responding less aggressively to the state of the economy—than a myopic policy, which ignores the learning channel. Moreover, for most initial beliefs, the incentive for active learning increases as monetary policy’s leverage over the long‐term interest rate increases.     

How Effective Were the Federal Reserve Emergency Liquidity Facilities? Evidence from the Asset‐Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility

The events following Lehman's failure in 2008 and the current turmoil emanating from Europe highlight the structural vulnerabilities of short‐term credit markets and the role of central banks as back‐stop liquidity providers. The Federal Reserve's response to financial disruptions in the United States importantly included the creation of liquidity facilities. Using a differences‐in‐differences approach, we evaluate one of the most unusual of these interventions—the Asset‐Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. We find that this facility helped stabilize asset outflows from money market funds and reduced asset‐backed commercial paper yields significantly.     

LOCAL AND STATEWIDE SMOKE‐FREE LAWS IN NEBRASKA: THE EFFECTS ON KENO ESTABLISHMENTS

This study examines how smoke‐free laws influence cross‐border keno shopping in Nebraska. We exploit smoke‐free law variation in timing and location to identify keno revenue gains and losses between neighboring smoke‐free and smoke‐friendly areas. We find the Lincoln municipal smoke‐free law reduced keno revenue by 23.5% in Lincoln and increased keno revenue by 30.0% in smoke‐friendly Surrounding Lincoln counties. The Omaha municipal smoke‐free law reduced keno revenue by 14.8% in Omaha and increased keno revenue by 7.1% in smoke‐friendly Surrounding Omaha counties. Following the Nebraska statewide law, no Nebraska areas had a smoke‐friendly advantage and keno revenue fell by an insignificant 1.0% and 5.2% in the surrounding Lincoln and Omaha counties, respectively. Our results may be of interest to local policy makers interested in understanding the amount of business activity and tax revenue that may be migrating out of a community or even the state. (JEL l18, K32)