Die Bedeutung der monetären Analyse für die Europäische Zentralbank

Die geldpolitische Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank beruht auf der wirtschaftlichen und der monetären Analyse von Risiken für die Preisstabilität im Euroraum. Sollte der monetären Analyse eine prominente Rolle zugewiesen werden?Eva-Ulrike Feldkord, 31, Dipl.-Volkswirtin, ist wis senschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Internationale Makroökonomie im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).     

Spurious principal components

The principal component regression (PCR) is often used to forecast macroeconomic variables when there are many predictors. In this letter, we argue that it makes sense to pre-whiten the predictors before including these in a PCR. With simulation experiments, we show that without such pre-whitening, spurious principal components can appear and that these can become spuriously significant in a PCR. With an illustration to annual inflation rates for five African countries, we show that non-spurious principal components can be genuinely relevant in empirical forecasting models.     

The relationship between principals’ configuration of a bundle of HR practices for new teachers and teachers’ person–organisation fit

Abstract

Based on studies in the private sector showing the positive effects of strategic human resources management (SHRM) on performance, many stress the value of adopting SHRM in the public sector. However, until now, the argument for applying SHRM in the public sector remains largely theoretical. Especially in educational contexts, it is unclear through which mechanisms SHRM affects performance. Therefore, this paper zooms in on the relationship between the configuration of a bundle of human resources (HR) practices and person–organisation (P–O) fit. A mixed methods design was used to collect both qualitative and quantitative data from principals and teachers in 56 Flemish primary schools. The qualitative data, which provides insight into principals’ configuration of HR practices, were converted into numerical scores and analysed, together with the quantitative teacher data, using multilevel analysis. The results show that both principals’ strategic and HR orientation are associated with teachers’ P–O fit. This study contributes to the research field of SHRM in education by studying a bundle of HR practices and how this relates to the fit of teachers’ own values with the school culture. The practical implications for schools are discussed.     

Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time,Methods and Disciplines

This paper examines how significance inflation has varied across time, methods and disciplines. Leveraging a unique data set of impact evaluations on 20 kinds of development programmes, I find that results from randomized controlled trials exhibit less significance inflation than results from studies using other methods. Further, randomized controlled trials have exhibited less significance inflation over time, but quasi‐experimental studies have not. There is no robust difference between results from researchers affiliated with economics departments and those from researchers affiliated with other predominantly health‐related departments. Overall, the biases found appear much smaller than those previously observed in other social sciences.     

Matte matters: when matte packaging increases perceptions of food naturalness

Matte surfaces, that is, those that are dull or lusterless not glossy and shiny, are a current trend in packaging. But does packaging surface affect what consumers think about the product inside it? We focus on consumers’ perception of packaged food products at the point of sale. Using three experiments, we show that food in matte packaging can be perceived as more natural. Notably, the effect of matte packaging only holds for rather artificial products. When matte packaging increases perceptions of product naturalness, consumers also expect the product to be tastier and are more likely to buy it.

     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

Epistemic habits: primary school teachers’ development of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) in a design-based research project

Generalist primary school teachers often have little or no training in school subjects such as science and technology. Not surprisingly, several studies show that they often experience difficulties when teaching these subjects, in fact some primary teachers even avoid teaching them. The over all aim of this study is to contribute to new theoretical and methodological tools for the study of how teachers develop knowledge for teaching, i.e. pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). And based on this, elaborate on implications for the professional development of primary school teachers. The teachers in the study participated in a design-based research project concerning technology education in Grade 1. We were especially interested in whether the teachers displayed any habits that contributed to the development of their personal PCK. We found three significant patterns in how the teachers, together with the researcher, developed knowledge of how to teach a specific topic in technology. We argue that these patterns tell us something about the teachers’ epistemic habits in relation to the teaching of technology. The existence of these habits could help to explain how teachers with little or no experience of teaching a subject can develop relevant PCK.     

Shareholder Protection,Ownership, and Dividends: Russian Evidence

This article investigates the relation between corporate governance mechanisms and dividend policy in Russian firms. Using a sample of Russian listed firms over the period 1998–2003, we estimate models for dividend pay probability and payout size. We find that there has been a significant increase in dividend payout levels which coincide with improvements in legal shareholder protection. State controlled firms are more frequent dividend payers as compared to other majority owned firms. We also find that dual share firms, in which corporate charters protect minority interests, have a higher dividend pay probability; while firms reporting according to US GAAP, which may be less likely to manipulate earnings, have a lower dividend payout.     

The Effects of Food Color on Perceived Flavor: A Factorial Investigation in India

We extend research testing the effects of food color on flavor to a new cultural setting—India. We test color’s effect at three levels: flavor identification, perception, and preference. One hundred twenty-two graduate students at an Indian business school enrolling students from all parts of India were assigned the task of tasting and evaluating an orange-flavored carbonated water. Color at two levels (purple and orange) and label information at two levels (told orange flavor, told grape) were manipulated in a full factorial, between-subjects design. Results confirm that food color affects the consumer’s ability to correctly identify flavor as well as to form distinct flavor profiles and preferences. Food color dominates other flavor information including labeling and taste, though the strength of the effect is less pronounced in this setting. Strategic alternatives for the effective deployment of food color for promotional purposes are recommended.