The U.S. Treasury Buyback Auctions: The Cost of Retiring Illiquid Bonds

We study an important recent series of buyback auctions conducted by the U.S. Treasury in retiring $67.5 billion of its illiquid off‐the‐run debt. The Treasury was successful in buying back large amounts of illiquid debt while suffering only a small market‐impact cost. The Treasury included the most‐illiquid bonds more frequently in the auctions, but tended to buy back the least‐illiquid of these bonds. Although the Treasury had the option to cherry pick from among the bonds offered, we find that the Treasury was actually penalized for being spread too thinly in the buybacks.     

Dual Trading in Futures Markets

With dual trading, brokers trade both for their customers and for their own account. We study dual trading and find that customers who are less likely to be informed have higher expected profits with dual trading while customers who are more likely to be informed have higher expected profits without dual trading. We also examine the effects of frontrunning. We test the major empirical implications of our model. Consistent with the model, dual traders earn higher profits than non-dual traders, and customers of dual-trading brokers do better than customers of non-dual-trading brokers.     

An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate

We estimate and compare a variety of continuous-time models of the short-term riskless rate using the Generalized Method of Moments. We find that the most successful models in capturing the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are those that allow the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the riskless rate. A number of well-known models perform poorly in the comparisons because of their implicit restrictions on term structure volatility. We show that these results have important implications for the use of different term structure models in valuing interest rate contingent claims and in hedging interest rate risk.     

Advance Refundings of Municipal Bonds

The advance refunding of debt is a widespread practice in municipal finance. In an advance refunding, municipalities retire callable bonds early and refund them with bonds with lower coupon rates. We find that 85% of all advance refundings occur at a net present value loss, and that the aggregate losses over the past 20 years exceed $15 billion. We explore why municipalities advance refund their debt at loss. Financially constrained municipalities may face pressure to advance refund since it allows them to reduce short‐term cash outflows. We find strong evidence that financial constraints are a major driver of advance refunding activity.     

Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions

We consider policies intended to accelerate recoveries by analyzing the duration of recoveries of U.S. states. Studying multiple recessions for a state and multiple states for a recession controls for differences in the economic conditions and the causes of recessions. Expansionary monetary policy at the national level helps to stimulate the exit of individual states from recession. Exogenous measures of decreases in taxes or targeted increases in federal spending reduce state recovery times, while ambient economic conditions (other states in the same region suffering from recession, the length of the preceding recession, and increases in oil prices) extend recovery times.