Externalities, expectations, and growth

Summary. The paper studies a model of accumulation and growth where a continuum of heterogeneous firms play dynamically optimal strategies along a (rational expectations) equilibrium. The key feature of the model is that firms' technological decisions are assumed subject to both friction and external effects. This gives rise to a wide multiplicity of equilibrium behavior, any path of sustained growth requiring that the economy tackle a never-ending chain of fresh coordination problems. This setup is modelled as a (non-atomic) dynamic game, suitable conditions being provided that partially characterize when sustained growth is a possible (never the unique) equilibrium outcome. Received: May 25, 1995; revised version: March 25, 1998     

Existence of steady – state equium in an overlapping-generations model with production

Summary This paper establishes an existence theorem of a non-trivial (positive capital stock) steady-state equilibrium in Diamond's (1965) overlapping-generations model with production by employing the steady-state consumption curve introduced in Ihori (1978). The assumptions on preferences and production technologies that ensure the existence of a nontrivial steadystate equilibrium are separated from each other, unlike in Galor and Ryder (1989). We also provide two simple examples which illustrate the importance of two conditions in the theorem.Detailed comments by Tomoichi Shinotsuka and the referees of the journal were quite helpful. We also thank Marcus Berliant, Mark Bus, John H. Boyd III, Ban Chuan Cheah, Rajat Deb, Jim Dolmas, Oded Galor, Greg Huffman, Toshihiro Ihori, Radhika Lahiri, Lionel McKenzie, Arundhati Sen, and the seminar participants at the Midwest Mathematical Economics Conference in Ann Abor and at University of Rochester. The second author gratefully acknowledges the financial supports from the European Community Human Capital Mobility Program.     

Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

We examine the real convergence hypothesis for 14 OECD countries looking at the fractional order of integration of the differences of real GDP per capita in these countries with respect to the United States. Using parametric procedures, the results vary depending on how we specify the I(0) disturbances. If they are white noise, convergence is achieved for Canada and Australia, and with autocorrelated disturbances, this hypothesis is satisfied for France and the Netherlands. However, allowing for a break at World War II, evidence of convergence is obtained for all countries. JEL no. C32, O41     

An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.     

Real options with unknown-date events

The real options literature has provided new insights on how to manage irreversible capital investments whose payoffs are uncertain. Two of the most important predictions from such theory are: (i) greater risk delays a firm’s investment timing, and (ii) greater risk increases the option value of waiting. This paper challenges such conclusions in a setting in which the relevant random variable is the arrival time of an unfavorable event. In particular, we model situations in which a firm must choose the time at which to invest in a project whose profit grows at a known rate until a random date is reached and decays thereafter, which may be representative of stochastic product or industry life cycles. This is a novel framework in which a firm can update its beliefs about the profitability of an investment opportunity by simply waiting to invest. Thus, a wait-and-see approach allows the firm to capitalize on favorable market evolutions and avoid adverse ones to some extent. Our framework is simple and does not require using stochastic calculus, which allows for an economic interpretation of optimal investment policies for the cases of one-time and sequential investments.     

Noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta distributions

In this paper, we determine the density functions of nonsymmetrised doubly noncentral matrix variate beta type I and II distributions. The nonsymmetrised density functions of doubly noncentral and noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta type I and II distributions are also obtained.     

Using the economics of platforms to understand the broadband-based market formation in the New Zealand Ultra-Fast Broadband Network

The government of New Zealand is currently building a nation-wide fibre-optics network, a project known as the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) initiative. The UFB network will cover 75 percent of New Zealanders over 10 years and will cost NZD $1.5 billion to the New Zealand government. The technical and economic characteristics of the new network will have a deep impact on the current landscape of the telecommunications markets. Institutional arrangements are in place for the development of the New Zealand's UFB: a government-owned agency, Crown Fibre Holdings (CFH); private investors who jointly with CFH own the Local Fibre Companies (LFCs) which will operate the UFB; and Retail Service Providers (RSP) that will provide end-user services by purchasing wholesale services to the LFCs. Relying on a normative economics approach that uses recent advances in the theory of platform-based markets with cross-network effects – also known as theory of two-sided platforms – the paper proposes a novel view of the way markets over the UFB will unfold. On one hand, the theory is used to explain the rationale behind regulatory decisions already made and their effect on the development of UFB-based markets for contents and services. Such analysis is followed, on the other hand, by the introduction of a simple taxonomy for the RSPs which provides the framework to argue about the most likely scenarios for service deployment and competition to develop over the UFB. The analytical framework reveals that the UFB ecosystem will be fraught with cross-network externalities which are the basis for regulatory decisions already adopted and the source of particular forms of strategic behavior adopted by the UFB-based market innovators.     

Limits to Arbitrage and Value Investing: Evidence From Brazil

ABSTRACT

In this article we show that the results obtained by accounting-based fundamental analysis strategies observed in the US market cannot be directly extended to emerging markets with less developed institutional environments and narrow equity markets as found in Latin America. We use Brazil as a special case and through standard tests show the apparent usefulness of financial statement analysis as an effective investment tool. We show that an investor could have changed his/her high book-to-market (HBM) portfolio one-year (two years) market-adjusted returns from 5.7% (42.4%) to 26.7% (120.2%) by selecting financially strong HBM firms listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange. Our tests were performed using stock returns from 1995 to 2007 and financial and accounting data from 1994 to 2004. When one considers low book-to-market (LBM) firms, the results of the study indicate that an investor could change his/her mean (median) one-year market adjusted return from ?11.9% (?7.4%) to 8.1% (2.5%) by adopting the strategy proposed. However, additional investigation demonstrates that the returns generated by these strategies are significantly dependent on stock's liquidity, and when we consider only stocks where arbitrage is possible, the previous results do not hold. These findings contribute to the literature that tries to address the impact of limits to arbitrage on some well reported capital markets phenomena related to financial reporting.     

Banks’ Net Interest Margin in the 2000s: A Macro-Accounting international perspective

This paper re-examines the determinants of Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the banking industries of 15 developed and emerging economies. It presents three main contributions with respect to previous studies: first, we analyze the determinants of NIM in the years leading to the 2008 financial crisis; second, we account for the role of different accounting standards across countries; third, we use multi-way cluster estimation methodologies which control for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in macroeconomic and banking variables. We find that the introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) contributed to lower NIM variations unexplained by standard accounting variables. Interest rate volatility is found to be positively and strongly related to NIM dynamics, whereas inflation risk is often found to be a relevant driver of NIM cross-country differences.     

Reopening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics

There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.