INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC CRISIS: CONTAGION AND FUNDAMENTALS

The severe and unanticipated economic downturn in Indonesia mirrored the regional economic fallout following the 1997 financial crisis. Although it is likely that the crisis in neighboring countries had an adverse impact on Indonesia, the issue has so far received little attention. This paper examines whether contagion from the economic crisis in Thailand triggered the crisis in Indonesia. Evidence of such a contagion is revealed, and the contagion was possibly exacerbated by increasing imbalances in the Indonesian economy. The paper also examines the channels through which the economic difficulties of Thailand might have been transmitted to Indonesia. Investors’behavior, rather than real links, is identified as one important channel for the contagion.     

How to draft ‘good’ minutes of monetary policy decisions

The minutes of monetary policy decisions at central banks vary substantially. A common norm does not exist. To ensure accountability and guide policy expectations, the minutes should satisfy some basic requirements. In search of criteria for ‘good’ minutes, it is relevant to look at how supreme courts write their decisions. Four criteria for ‘good’ minutes are proposed. The minutes of six central banks are assessed against the proposed criteria. In spite of the substantial variation in format, their minutes largely satisfy the criteria. The central banks' minutes seem to reflect their individual communication histories. The central banks could learn from each other, but also from the supreme courts, especially in terms of how they organise the writing of the minority view.     

The influence of feedback and awareness of consequences on the development of corporate sustainability action over time

The current level of corporate sustainability is insufficient for overcoming pressing environmental and social issues. Research is therefore needed about processes that lead to increased corporate action that fosters sustainable development. This study investigates the influence of feedback and corporate awareness of consequences on the development of corporate sustainability action over time. It uses action regulation theory to quantitatively analyse data of 59 large German companies measured at two points in time. The results reveal a positive temporal development of corporate sustainability action, and awareness of consequences positively mediates the relationship between corporate sustainability actions in two different time periods. Feedback acts as a moderator between the positive effect of corporate sustainability action in the first period on corporate awareness of consequences in the second period. Based on these findings, recommendations for organisations include the importance of seeking and processing feedback.     

Determinants of organizational performance in a reinventing government setting: evidence from the Milwaukee school voucher programme

This paper advances the institutional entrepreneurial literature by exploring how, and when, the institutional entrepreneurial concepts embedded in theories of Reinventing Government and New Public Management are successful. Specifically, organizational level data from the nation’s oldest and largest urban school voucher programme are used to test how fundraising, reliance on government revenue, and membership in an umbrella organization impact different measures of performance. The analysis shows that organizations that fundraise, establish diverse revenue streams, and/or are members of established networks have certain performance advantages. The results are relevant to policymaker considering governance reforms premised on entrepreneurial activity.     

An historical wealth assessment – measuring the Swedish national wealth for the nineteenth and twentieth centuries

This article provides historical account of wealth accumulation and composition in Sweden during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. A detailed account on capital formation during the industrialisation process shows that produced capital grew faster than natural capital from the 1850s. Natural capital was changing from a predominance of forest towards crop land as the main asset in the early twentieth century. Produced capital was largely bounded in the agriculture sector up till the second half of the nineteenth century. Heavy investments in the infrastructure sector and later in the manufacturing section changed the produced capital structure and thereby lowered transport costs and return of investment in manufacturing and services; providing incentives for accumulating the stock of produced capital and enhance consumption and living standard. The return on capital was dispersed from the outset of the period but has converged over time.     

Trends and cycles in regional economic growth: How spatial differences shaped the Swedish growth experience from 1860–2009

Using a novel dataset of regional GDP per worker from 1860 to 2009, this paper analyzes communalities in regional long-term growth trajectories for 24 Swedish regions. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Component Analysis are used to decompose regional growth trajectories and assess the extent that regional growth patterns share common trends and cyclical properties. The study found that regional growth trends show strong common features among groups of regions in Sweden. Natural-resource-rich regions benefited from the First Industrial Revolution. Contrary to regional development in many other European economies, a growth surge in Sweden later benefited virtually the whole country during the Second Industrial Revolution. The countrywide trend of growth slowed in the 1970s when the metropolitan regions became the main growth engines. In mid- and short-term cyclical movements, regions display more heterogeneous growth patterns, and we find evidence of mid-term, sequential lead–lag patterns in regional growth, especially between urban cores and the periphery.     

The influence of spouses on household decision making under risk: an experiment in rural China

We study household decision making in a high-stakes experiment with a random sample of households in rural China. Spouses have to choose between risky lotteries, first separately and then jointly. We find that spouses’ individual risk preferences are more similar the richer the household and the higher the wife’s relative income contribution. A couple’s joint decision is typically very similar to the husband’s preferences, but women who contribute relatively more to the household income, women in high-income households, and women with communist party membership have a stronger influence on the joint decision.     

Power mapping with dynamical adjustment for improved portfolio optimization

For financial risk management it is of vital interest to have good estimates for the correlations between the stocks. It has been found that the correlations obtained from historical data are covered by a considerable amount of noise, which leads to a substantial error in the estimation of the portfolio risk. A method to suppress this noise is power mapping. It raises the absolute value of each matrix element to a power q while preserving the sign. In this paper we use the Markowitz portfolio optimization as a criterion for the optimal value of q and find a K/T dependence, where K is the portfolio size and T the length of the time series. Both in numerical simulations and for real market data we find that power mapping leads to portfolios with considerably reduced risk. It compares well with another noise reduction method based on spectral filtering. A combination of both methods yields the best results.     

Über das Makeham'sche Gesetz und das Zinsfussproblem bei der Leibrente

Abstract

In dem Folgenden werde ieh einige praktisehe Folgen einigen der vielen bis heute ersehienenen Arbeiten ü das MAKEHAM'sche Sterblichkeitsgesetz und das versicherungstechnische Problem bei Zinsänderungen andeuten. Es handelt sich um einige Zusammenstellungen für die praktische Verwendung einigen der vielen schönen theoretischen Resultaten in diesem Gebiete der Versicherungsmathematik; praktische Zusammenstellungen, die mir bekannt nicht früher klar ausgesprochen worden sind.