Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data

We construct factor models based on disaggregate survey data for forecasting national aggregate macroeconomic variables. Our methodology applies regional and sectoral factor models to Norges Bank’s regional survey and to the Swedish Business Tendency Survey. The analysis identifies which of the pieces of information extracted from the individual regions in Norges Bank’s survey and the sectors for the two surveys perform particularly well at forecasting different variables at various horizons. The results show that several factor models beat an autoregressive benchmark in forecasting inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the factor models are most successful at forecasting GDP growth. Forecast combinations using the past performances of regional and sectoral factor models yield the most accurate forecasts in the majority of the cases.     

The Role of Small Firms in the Technology Development of China

Science & Technology (S&T) is high on the Chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation‐driven economy. Small firms have been important in technology development in other East Asian countries but the situation in Chinese small firms has been far less explored. We examine how much S&T has been accounted for by small firms and how their S&T intensity differs across industries and ownership groups. We also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and S&T status. This study is based on newly processed micro‐level data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics with information on a large number of S&T indicators for manufacturing firms in China in 2000 and 2004. Our results suggest that the role of small firms in Chinese S&T is similar to that in many other countries. They account for a comparably small share of total S&T and most small firms are not engaged in any S&T. However, those small firms that do engage in S&T tend to be more S&T intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger Chinese S&T firms.     

POVERTY AND RECOVERY: THE HISTORY OF AID AND DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AFRICA

Poor countries are believed to be trapped in a vicious circle of poverty where low incomes lead to low savings and insufficient resources for investments. Foreign aid is supposed to boost investment and link poor countries to a virtuous circle of growth. But real per capita growth has not been present in the modern history of Kenya and Tanzania ‐ even though foreign aid has increased many times over. Does the recent history in Uganda pave the way for new principles of efficient aid, or is it just a rare occasion of aid‐induced behavioural change?     

The compulsory public pension and the demand for life insurance: the case of Sweden, 1884–1914

We employ cost‐of‐living surveys, business archives, and firm data to examine the impact of the compulsory pension on the demand for life insurance in Sweden from 1884 to 1914—a period that covers the implementation of the first public compulsory old‐age pension reform and the take‐off of industry life insurance. As predicted on the basis of the contemporary literature on crowding‐out effects, we find that the compulsory pension reduced the demand for life insurance. Our panel‐data analysis of lapse rates on insurance policies shows a significant crowding‐out effect of pension payments. We conclude that the introduction of the general compulsory pension had a crowding‐out effect on households’ holdings of insurance policies.     

Is Passive Farming A Problem for Agriculture in the EU?

We address a new agricultural policy concern following the decoupling of CAP direct payments in 2005: passive farming, whereby landowners maintain their agricultural area to collect payments without producing commodities. It is claimed that passive farming is hindering agricultural development by ‘blocking’ access to farmland for expanding farmers. We evaluate the links between the EU's Single Payment Scheme (SPS), passive farming, land use and agricultural development. Following identification of the rational landowners’ optimal land‐use choice, we evaluate the effects of the SPS using a spatial, agent‐based model that simulates farmers’ competition for land in a case‐study region of Sweden. We show that passive farming does not constrain land from being used in production; on the contrary more land is used than would be the case without the SPS. We conclude that passive farming is not a problem for agriculture, but provides public goods that would otherwise be under provided: preservation of marginal farmland and future food security. However SPS payments on highly productive land inflate land values (capitalisation) and slow structural change, which hinder agricultural development. Consequently CAP goals could be better served by targeting payments on marginal land and phasing out payments to highly productive land.     

EU Trade Preferences and Export Diversification

Since at least the 1960s, the European Union (EU) has offered various kinds of non‐reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries. Originally, these trade preferences had at least two policy goals: (i) to increase export volumes for developing countries and thereby boost their export earnings and (ii) to facilitate export diversification. While extensive research has confirmed that the first of these goals is typically met, the second goal seems to have been largely forgotten by researchers as well as in policy circles. The aim of this paper was therefore to analyse the impact of the EU's non‐reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries on export diversification. Our estimation results suggest that some trade preference programmes, such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), lead to increasing ranges of export products. By contrast, preferences offered to Mediterranean countries typically have no significant effects, and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preferences actually have negative effects towards the end of our time period, suggesting that ACP countries may respond to preferences by specialising into fewer goods.     

National and international spillovers from R&D: Comparing a neoclassical and an endogenous growth approach

National and International Spillovers from R&;D: Comparing a Neoclassical and an Endogenous Growth Approach.— Two models where productivity growth is caused by spillovers from R&;D are analyzed using a sample of nine manufacturing industries in six large OECD countries between 1979 and 1991. The first model is based on traditional productivity analysis, the second model on the endogenous growth theory. The empirical results indicate stronger support for the latter. The results suggest that spillovers from R&;D exist within industries, both nationally and internationally, confined to industries that are relatively R&;D-intensive. There is, however, little evidence of spillovers between industries. Finally, FDIs seem to facilitate the diffusion of R&;D results, but the authors do not find any effect on growth from R&;D embodied in intermediate products. JEL no. O32, O40     

WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT IN ZIMBABWE: EVIDENCE FROM A CONTINGENT VALUATION STUDY

If communities living adjacent to the elephant see it as a burden, then they cannot be its stewards. To assess their valuation of it, a contingent valuation method study was conducted for one CAMPFIRE district in Zimbabwe. Respondents were classified according to their preferences over the elephant. The median willingness to pay for the preservation of 200 elephants is ZW$260 (US$4.73) for respondents who considered the elephant a public good and ZW$137 (US$2.49) for those favouring its translocation. The preservation of 200 elephants yields an annual net worth of ZW$10,828 (US$196) to CAMPFIRE households. However, the majority of households (62%) do not support elephant preservation. This is one argument against devolution of elephant conservation. External transfers constitute one way of providing additional economic incentives to local communities.     

Consumer Benefits of Labels and Bans on GM Foods—Choice Experiments with Swedish Consumers

The European Union has been relatively cautious about using biotechnology in food production. A label regime combined with the right of individual member states to ban introduction of new genetically modified (GM) strains means that GM food products in effect are banned in many countries. We show how it is possible to empirically test whether a ban can be motivated by reference to potential negative externalities. This is followed up by results from a choice experiment. We cannot reject the hypothesis of equal WTP for a ban and a labeling scheme.     

Healthcare resource utilization in patients receiving idarucizumab for reversal of dabigatran anticoagulation due to major bleeding,urgent surgery,or procedural interventions: interim results from the RE-VERSE AD™ study

Aims: Patients treated with anticoagulants may experience serious bleeding or require urgent surgery or intervention, and may benefit from rapid anticoagulant reversal. This exploratory analysis assessed healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in patients treated with idarucizumab, a specific reversal agent for dabigatran etexilate.

Materials and methods: RE-VERSE AD? (NCT02104947), a prospective, multi-center open-label study, is evaluating idarucizumab for dabigatran reversal in patients with serious bleeding (Group A) or undergoing emergency surgery/procedures (Group B). HCRU outcome measures evaluated in the first 90 patients enrolled were use of blood products and pro-hemostatic agents, length of stay (LOS) in hospital, and LOS in intensive care unit (ICU).

Results: Blood products or pro-hemostatic agents were given to 63% (32/51) of patients in Group A and 23% (9/39) of patients in Group B on the day of/day after surgery. An overnight hospital stay was reported for 82% (42/51) of patients in Group A with median LOS?=?7 (range?=?1–71) bed-days. For Group B, 92% (36/39) had an overnight hospital stay with a median LOS?=?9 (range?=?1–92) bed-days. In Group A, 17 patients were admitted to the ICU for at least 1?day with median LOS?=?4 (range?=?1–44) days; in Group B the number was 15 with median LOS?=?2 (range?=?1–92) days.

Limitations: The lack of a control group and the small patient numbers limit the strength of the conclusions.

Conclusions: The use of idarucizumab may simplify emergency management of dabigatran-treated patients with life-threatening bleeds and reduce perioperative complications in patients undergoing emergency surgery.