Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa.
(J.E.L.: F31).     

Poverty—A structural problem of developing countries

The contrast between industrialized and developing countries is often seen as one between two opposites: Rich countries—poor countries. But the poverty in the developing countries is by no means identical with the need for help as perceived in the industrialized societies. Poverty in the Third World is, as the following article shows, a structural problem.     

RESEARCH ON THE MOTION PICTURE INDUSTRY: STATE OF THE ART AND NEW DIRECTIONS OFF THE BEATEN TRACK AWAY FROM THEATRICAL RELEASE

The motion picture industry has been subject of extensive academic research over the last decades. However, most scholars focused on the U.S. theatrical motion picture market. The number of research activities regarding even more profitable release windows, such as home video or television, has been substantially lower. Although international distribution is essential for a motion picture project to break even, there has been little significant re-search on most other markets. This paper aims at summarizing the current state of research on the motion picture industry, particularly from marketing and management perspective, revealing research gaps, and proposing recommendations for future research endeavors. Therefore, a three-pillar scheme is developed to systemize previous findings: Research on intraorganizational decision making, contractual relationships between national stakeholders, and international market competition are differentiated. Since these insights are mainly derived from U.S. theatrical exhibition, they can hardly be applied to other markets and exhibition windows. Thus, potential research areas are identified to expand knowledge of posttheatrical and international markets.     

Constrained Indirect Estimation

We develop generalized indirect estimation procedures that handle equality and inequality constraints on the auxiliary model parameters by extracting information from the relevant multipliers, and compare their asymptotic efficiency to maximum likelihood. We also show that, regardless of the validity of the restrictions, the asymptotic efficiency of such estimators can never decrease by explicitly considering the multipliers associated with additional equality constraints. Furthermore, we discuss the variety of effects on efficiency that can result from imposing constraints on a previously unrestricted model. As an example, we consider a stochastic volatility process estimated through a garch model with Gaussian or  t  distributed errors.     

Constitutional choice and European immigration policy

The EU’s immigration policy is evaluated from the standpoint of constitutional economics. The main conclusion is that European immigration policy is trapped in a system of constitutional regulations that is too rigid as it is exclusively oriented towards the protection and securitisation of European borders. As such, it is not capable of allowing the development of a problem-solving capacity based on successive trials, and this produces negative outcomes for the whole of the EU.

Age effects in Okun’s law with different indicators of unemployment

We reassess the results from the literature on the relationship between the youth unemployment rate and GDP growth (Okun’s law), based on the concern that the unemployment rate is not an ideal indicator for teenagers and young adults. Using the unemployment ratio instead, we find that youth unemployment (15–24 years old) is not significantly more responsive to economic growth than prime-age (25–64) unemployment. However, compared to prime-age unemployment, teenagers’ unemployment (15–19) is relatively unresponsive, whereas young adult’s (20–24) unemployment is more strongly correlated with economic growth. These results are quite different than those obtained with the unemployment rate as the dependent variable.