Mean and Variance Causality between Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries

This paper examines the issue of mean and variance causality across four Latin American official and black markets for foreign currency using monthly data for the period 1976–1993. We apply a recent test developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) in order to test for mean and variance spillovers. The main findings are: (1) In contrast to the findings of previous studies, EGARCH-M processes characterize each bilateral exchange rate series in both markets; (2) There is substantial evidence of causality in both mean and variance with the causality in mean largely being driven by the causality in variance; and (3) The results indicate that the major exporter of causality is the Mexican black market with the black market of Argentina and the black and official markets of Brazil being the smallest contributors.     

Accounting for Net Entry into Greek Manufacturing by Establishments of Varying Size

Adopting the view that size matters in understanding entry (exit) patterns, this research explores the nature and causes of net entry patterns of various size-defined groups of establishments in the case of a less industrialised country – Greece. The hypothesis to be tested is that the determinants of entry are not independent of firm size. Throughout this paper the analysis has had to confront difficulties arising from the use of net entry rates defined at the size class level. The degree of size disaggregation used in this paper is considerably finer than used before. Five employment-defined size classes have been used instead of sliding cut-off points discriminating between small and large firms. Unlike other research using pooled models to explain variation in entry (exit) rates across industries, the data used here are characterised by the absence of significant industry-specific systematic variation. Overall, the results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a gradation in the responses of different size classes to stimuli defined at the industry level. Evidence is offered that small firms are different in that they manage to overcome entry barriers, perhaps adopting different survival strategies, and that large firms are well aware of market conditions and are in an advantageous position to overcome many of the problems imposed by entry barriers. Size classes in the middle of the size class distribution offer a rather mixed result due to size-related advantages and disadvantages.     

The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries

Over the last twenty years the statistical properties of inflation persistence has been the subject of intense investigation and debate without reaching a unanimous conclusion yet. In this article we attempt to shed further light to this debate using a battery of econometric techniques in order to provide robust evidence on the degree of inflation persistence and whether this has changed during the period in which several countries have followed inflation-targeting regimes or new monetary regimes. We consider the inflation rates of thirty developed and emerging economies using quarterly data for the period 1958 to 2007 which include alternative monetary policy regimes. The coefficient of the inflation parameter is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models. Furthermore, the grid-bootstrap Median Unbiased (MUB) estimator approach developed by Hansen (1999) is used to estimate the finite sample OLS estimates coupled with the 95% symmetric confidence interval. We also examine parameter stability of persistence coefficients by estimating a model with time-varying parameters.     

COMMON STOCHASTIC TRENDS AMONG THE CYPRUS STOCK EXCHANGE AND THE ASE,LSE AND NYSE

Common stochastic trends among major international stock price indices have been an intensively analysed issue mainly as a result of the 1987 stock market crash and the need for policy coordination in financial markets. This paper investigates the existence of common stochastic trends among an emerging equity market, the Cyprus Stock Exchange, and three mature equity markets, namely the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).     

Are Full Employment and Social Cohesion Possible Under Financialization?

Unemployment and unequal income distribution were singled out by J.M. Keynes, in the General Theory, as major faults of capitalist economies. This paper argues that there is a negative relationship between financialization and unemployment. In particular, we develop a simple Post Keyneian/Kaleckian model and explore distribution as well as institutional channels through which financialization might have negatively affected the employment performance of capitalist economies, undermining the social cohesion and egalitarian development. Furthermore, we argue that in the face of financialization full employment is likely to be attainable under the institutionalization of an Employer of Last Resort (hereafter ELR) policy strategy.     

Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

It is a well-accepted empirical result that forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests using the “differences regression” of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward discount. We model the forward discount as an AR(1) process and argue that its persistence is exaggerated due to the presence of structural breaks. We show using a stochastic multiple break model that the forward discount persistence is substantially less if one allows for multiple structural breaks in the mean of the process. We argue that these breaks could be identified as monetary shocks to the central bank's reaction function. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that if we do not account for structural breaks that are present in the forward discount process, the forward discount coefficient in the “differences regression” is severely biased downward, away from its true value of 1.