The management of R & D technological progress as an object for applied systems analysis

Mankind's prospects both for finding new types of resources and for ensuring efficiency in resource utilization and substitution depend upon our success or failure in solving the problems of organizing and managing technological systems. A generalized scheme describing interaction among the basic elements of the management of national science and technology (ST) activity is outlined, and one particular element isolated for detailed examination: the system analysis and systematic assessment of new technology (SANT). The role of SANT in the context of decision-making in the management of ST progress is described, together with the methodological arsenal available. No one technique is universally good; the problem is to find systematic means of using a selection of methods which mutually compensate for each other's weaknesses. Further difficulties are encountered over the non-comparability or absence of initial data, and a framework for viewing the various classes of data available and making use of them is outlined. Examples are given of the practical application of SANT to problems such as the development of a macro-model., for the planning of national ST policy, and a model of technological change in the area of the science, technology, and exploitation of computers. A system is described which handles the data stores and information flows necessary for performing SANT routines.     

Multimarket trading and liquidity: a transaction data analysis of Canada–US interlistings

We use transaction data for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) listed stocks to examine the impact on trading costs of the decision to interlist on a US exchange. We measure trading costs using both ‘posted’ bid-ask spreads and ‘effective’ bid-ask spreads that measure actual transaction prices relative to standing bid-ask quotes. After controlling for price level, trade size and trading volume effects, we find that overall posted and effective spreads in the domestic (TSE) market decrease subsequent to the interlisting. However, the decrease in trading costs is concentrated in those TSE stocks that experience a significant shift of total trading volume (TSE and US) to the US exchange after listing. We interpret this result in the context of theories of multimarket trading as a competitive response by TSE market makers to the additional presence of US market makers.     

Designing and managing employer-sponsored long-term care plans

Due to prevalent demographic factors, long-term care is an issue of increasing concern to American workers. The cost and time involved in ever-expanding long-term care responsibilities for many employees has resulted in increased indirect employer costs. The authors argue that providing' long-term care as part of the employee benefit plan is an efficient and effective way to manage these increasing costs for both the employer and the employee. The article offers discussion of plan design for long-term care, including issues to be considered and strategy for plan management.     

An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.