The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.     

Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country’s current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country’s current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The effects of purchases of foreign assets spill over to other countries in proportion to their degree of international financial integration. We also find that increases in US bond yields are associated with increases in foreign bond yields and in stock prices, as well as with depreciations of foreign currencies, but that all of these effects are smaller on days of US unconventional monetary policy announcements. We develop a theoretical model that is broadly consistent with our empirical results and that highlights the potential usefulness of domestic unconventional policies as responses to the effects of foreign policies of a similar type.     

Does measurement invariance hold for the official Mexican multidimensional poverty measure? A state-level analysis 2012

One of the main goals in poverty measurement is making comparisons of prevalence and severity across geographical units. This is attained by merely disaggregating the index in question. The underlying assumption is that comparisons across units are tenable, inasmuch as the same indicators are utilised for constructing the index. Nonetheless, in practice, this assumption is very rarely tested. From the statistical perspective, measurement invariance (MI) must hold for comparisons to be valid, and violations thereof indicate that a given poverty index measures different things across different countries, states, counties, etc. Consequently, differentials in severity and prevalence cannot be attributed exclusively to the underlying construct (i.e. poverty) but to factors not considered in the measure. This article tests whether MI holds for two indexes: the Mexican official multidimensional measure (MPM) and an adjusted multidimensional measure (MPM-A) that uses less severe thresholds. The analysis is conducted using a novel method called the ‘alignment method’. It uses these two measures and the method as an illustration of why it is vital to introduce MI tests into poverty measurement. The results suggest that partial strong MI holds for the official measure and MI is violated when the thresholds are adjusted. Partial strong MI guarantees making valid comparisons across the 32 states. Should the official measure requires to be updated with other thresholds, it would be necessary to adjust the threshold or drop the indicator for water deprivation.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Regulations on the Business Community: A System Dynamic Approach

Based on the business environmental literature and system dynamics, this paper develops a simulation model for managing the business risks derived from climate change. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to transform the valuable findings from the literature regarding climate change and corporate implications into an effective business management model with a broad applicability, regardless of the size of the business or the sector in which it operates. A methodology consistent with the basic principles of the system dynamic modeling process is developed, and a case study is designed to determine the level of completeness of the simulation model and its ability to address different aspects of business performance. To do so, three different scenarios have been simulated to analyze the reactive, proactive and inactive stance of managers against climate change risks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Optimality results on orthogonal arrays plus <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> runs for <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis><Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis></Superscript> factorial experiments

The optimality of designs obtained by adding p runs to an orthogonal array is studied for experiments involving m factors each at s levels. The optimality criterion used here, is the Type 1 criterion due to Cheng (1978) which is an extension of Kiefer (1975) universal optimality criterion. Unlike what happens with orthogonal array plus one run designs, the behavior of designs obtained via augmentation of an orthogonal array by p runs depends on the particular runs added.     

Helping behavior in a virtual crisis situation: effects of safety awareness and crisis communication

Incident evaluations show that bystanders tend to help: they do not wait for professionals to arrive, but act as required by the situation at hand. In the present study, we investigated how safety awareness (induced before an accident happened) and providing a course of action by emergency services affect helping behavior after witnessing a virtual accident with two victims. The main task of the participants was to arrive at a job interview in time. Safety awareness was manipulated by the specific organization they went to: either promoting safe traffic or healthy living. The results show that all participants were inclined to help. Participants who were primed towards safe traffic more often called the emergency number, but talked to the victim less often. Participants who had received specific courses of action moved the victim less often. In all, the results clearly indicate the value of effective risk communication (before an event occurs) and crisis communication (after an event has occurred), as both types of information improve the quality of actual helping behavior at the scene.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of rivaroxaban for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism in the Netherlands

Background: Until recently, standard treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) concerned a combination of short-term low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) and long-term vitamin-K antagonist (VKA). Risk of bleeding and the requirement for regular anticoagulation monitoring are, however, limiting their use. Rivaroxaban is a novel oral anticoagulant associated with a significantly lower risk of major bleeds (hazard ratio?=?0.54, 95% confidence interval?=?0.37–0.79) compared to LMWH/VKA therapy, and does not require regular anticoagulation monitoring.

Aims: To evaluate the health economic consequences of treating acute VTE patients with rivaroxaban compared to treatment with LMWH/VKA, viewed from the Dutch societal perspective.

Methods: A life-time Markov model was populated with the findings of the EINSTEIN phase III clinical trial to analyze cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban therapy in treatment and prevention of VTE from a Dutch societal perspective. Primary model outcomes were total and incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), as well as life expectancy and costs.

Results: Over a patient’s lifetime, rivaroxaban was shown to be dominant, with health gains of 0.047 QALYs and cost savings of €304 compared to LMWH/VKA therapy. Dominance was robustly present in all sensitivity analyses. Major drivers of the differences between the two treatment arms were related to anticoagulation monitoring (medical costs, travel costs, and loss of productivity) and the occurrence of major bleeds.

Conclusion: Rivaroxaban treatment of patients with venous thromboembolism results in health gains and cost savings compared to LMWH/VKA therapy. This conclusion holds for the Dutch setting, both for the societal perspective, as well as the healthcare perspective.     

Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a field experiment

The house money effect predicts that individuals show increased risk-seeking behavior in the presence of prior windfall gains. Although the effect’s existence is widely accepted, experimental studies that compare individuals’ risk-taking behavior using house money to individuals’ risk-taking behavior using their own money produce contradictory results. This experimental field study analyzes the gambling behavior of 917 casino customers who face real losses. We find that customers who received free play at the entrance showed not higher but significantly lower levels of risk-taking behavior during their casino visit, expressed through lower average wagers. This study thus provides field evidence against the house money effect. Moreover, as a result of lower levels of risk seeking, endowed customers yield better economic results in the form of smaller own-money losses when leaving the casino.     

Causal complexity for passengers’ intentions to re-ride

This study explores the relationship among service range, ride convenience, motivation to ride, satisfaction with facilities, service satisfaction, and intention to re-ride. The conveyance of interest is the Puyuma Express because its transport service last year carries out the overall electrified era in eastern Taiwan and its vast passenger capacity breaks the record over the past 128 years. The very high passenger capacity includes passengers who are on their first ride but, to a much greater extent, passengers who are re-riding. This fact motivates this research. This work involves a carefully designed questionnaire, and uses both web-based and paper-based questionnaire surveys to collect data. The number of valid samples thus obtained was 228. Multiple regression analysis (MRA) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) are utilized to test proposed research framework. The two methods yield completely different results. MRA reveals that satisfaction with facilities, service satisfaction, ride convenience, and service range are together responsible for the strong intentions of passengers to re-ride. FsQCA identifies seven complex antecedent paths that are responsible for strong intentions to re-ride. The latter explains outcome more comprehensively than the former. The motivation to ride is an important condition in fsQCA and should not be eliminated as MRA suggests. This empirical study elucidates the causal complexity for passengers’ intentions to re-ride, and contributes to theory and practice in the domains of both transportation marketing and consumer behavior.