TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION: CAN IT WORK?

Market events of the past ten years have sparked an interest in tactical asset allocation. In the current study we develop and test a model that incorporates currently available information into the tactical asset allocation process. The model provides an estimate of the probabilities that the upcoming market period will be bullish or bearish. Logit analysis is employed to determine which of the various timely and readily available data significantly affect these probabilities. These estimated probabilities are used to suggest the optimal allocations of funds over time between the risk-free asset and the market portfolio. Then, several timing strategies are compared with a buy-and-hold portfolio. An asset allocation strategy based on the probabilities assigned by the logit model appears to achieve greater terminal wealth with less variability of returns. Similar results are obtained for both an initial sample (1962–76 in our model) and a holdout sample (1977–88).     

Development, Present Status and Some Prospects of the Financial Markets in Korea

This paper describes the historical background and the present structure of Korea's financial markets to provide the basic understanding of issues facing the Korean financial system. The financial system in Korea has been introduced and developed to serve specific political or economic purposes, putting the financial markets in a tight control of government. As a result of the government-controlled financial policies market mechanism has oftentimes been ignored or distorted, making the Korean financial market inefficient and not competitive. To increase the efficiency of the financial system the Korean government plans to launch a Big Bang style financial reform. Attention is paid to the ongoing efforts of the Korean government for financial reforms. As the financial reform takes effect in the near future there will be far fewer regulations and government interventions in financial sector.     

Hallyu Revisited: Challenges and Opportunities for the South Korean Tourism

The tourism industry in South Korea has undergone unprecedented growth and faced multiple changes since 2000, thanks to the recent emergence and growing popularity and influence of the Hallyu phenomenon. Although an earlier research paper in Tourism Geographies in 2009 provided insights into the relationship between the Hallyu and patterns of inbound tourism, little scholarly effort has been made to investigate how the Korean tourism industry has evolved in response to the challenges and opportunities generated by the Hallyu. The findings suggest that until recently, the government did not have a comprehensive mid- and long-term tourism policy dedicated to the Hallyu and its impacts on tourism. Diversified trends and patterns of Hallyu-related tourism, a paucity of longitudinal approaches to market segmentation research and long-term trend analyses, and a lack of coordination between the Korean government and key tourism agencies have been also identified as key issues and challenges.     

The time difference effect of a measurement unit in the lead-lag relationship analysis of Korean financial market

This paper investigates Korean financial markets for the study of market microstructure of price discovery in the KOSPI 200 stock index and its related derivatives markets using different time-interval price data. The Granger causality test and vector error correction model are used to analyze the empirical relationship between markets. The lead-lag relationship between the KOSPI 200 stock index and its derivatives markets can be supported by the trading cost hypothesis and leverage effect hypothesis. This paper also shows the congruent lead-lag results in various time-intervals, but as the time-interval becomes large, more information loss and spurious results are induced. The correlations among 1-minute data, 5-minute data, and 10-minute data are significant under a 1% significance level, however, in the case of 60-minute data, the correlations with any other time-interval data are not significant. The 60-minute data even have negative correlations with others. These results are consistent regardless of the raw data or the innovation data. Therefore, we can conclude that the previous research using the 60-minute data due to an insufficiency of trading volume can be biased considerably.     

Whose voice is it anyway? Rethinking the oral history method in accounting research on race, ethnicity and gender

Drawing on contemporary feminist and postcolonial writings, this paper endeavors to provide a critique of some underlying assumptions of the oral history method. The very methodology of the oral history method re-enforces hegemonic Western ideologies about race/ethnicity, gender and class perpetuated through the connection between the cultural identity of the speaker and the notion of authenticity as a ground for academic authority. Without recognizing the inherent subjectivities of the research methods we use, we may unwittingly perpetuate these hegemonic ideologies, despite our good intention. If other histories are to be heard, this bias and viewpoint needs to be challenged, not in a threatening way but in an enlightening way, so that the “Other” voices can tell their stories in a more, if not fully, liberated way.     

APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS TO TAX EVASION

The paper reviews recent models that have applied the techniques of behavioural economics to the analysis of the tax compliance choice of an individual taxpayer. The construction of these models is motivated by the failure of the Yitzhaki version of the Allingham–Sandmo model to predict correctly the proportion of taxpayers who will evade and the effect of an increase in the tax rate upon the chosen level of evasion. Recent approaches have applied non‐expected utility theory to the compliance decision and have addressed social interaction. The models we describe are able to match the observed extent of evasion and correctly predict the tax effect but do not have the parsimony or precision of the Yitzhaki model.     

The effect of trust on value on travel websites: enhancing well-being and word-of-mouth among the elderly

Despite older adults’ potential for engagement in e-commerce, there is limited understanding of what makes them achieve well-being while using a travel website. In addressing this research gap relating to older adults’ travel website experiences, this study highlights the important role of trust generating value in the context of travel websites. Specifically, this paper examines the relationships between trust, functional and hedonic values, well-being, and word-of-mouth (WOM). We analyzed 300 older adults in the United States (US) who used travel websites and purchased package tours, employing the structural equation modeling technique. The results show that trust significantly influences both functional and hedonic values, both of which result in well-being. Interestingly, hedonic value has a stronger effect on well-being than functional value, leading to WOM.     

An Extended Ricardian Model Incorporating a Consumption Time Constraint

This paper investigates the impact of incorporating a Gossenian?Beckerian consumption time constraint into a simple Ricardian model. It is shown that in such a model the consumption gain from trade is zero, the specialization gain can be negative and a small nation devotes less labor to production after trade.     

An alternative approach to evaluating the agreement between financial markets

This research investigates that the price relationship between a stock index and its associated nearby futures markets can be explained by the cost-of-carry model using the concordance correlation (CC) coefficient in the US financial markets. The main purpose of this research is to confirm that the CC coefficient is an appropriate methodology to determine ex post arbitrage opportunities and to maximize ex ante arbitrage profits through the analysis of the price relationship derived from the cost-of-carry model. To increase the robustness of the results and to enable us to generalize our conclusions, this analysis is carried out in consideration of external uncertainty, including the marking-to-market procedure of futures contracts and the transaction cost on the stock index and its futures markets, under several assumptions related to the conditions of transactions. Examining transaction price data on the S&P 500 stock index and its futures markets shows that the CC coefficient gives a good result for ex ante arbitrage profits and is appropriate for analyzing the relationship between the observed stock index futures market price and its theoretical price derived from the cost-of-carry model.     

Climate impacts on geographical changes in the energy industry

Owing to global warming, ice in the Arctic Ocean has shrunk by 2.7% every 10 years since 1978, resulting in tremendous damage. This study uses the Cobb–Douglas production function to analyze the impact of abnormal weather on energy industry production using temperature and precipitation indicators. In particular, the government identified the impact of abnormal weather conditions on manufacturing and public works related to the Korean energy industry. The results showed that the numbers of freezing days and heavy rain days adversely affect public works, whereas hot and cold days and heavy rain days all positively affect the production of coal, petroleum, and chemical products. These results also led to regional risk assessments of the energy industry. This study can help in developing the 2030 industry climate change adaptation plan.