Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation: Why the Wage Contracts Length Matters?

Recent empirical contributions demonstrate that countries with less independent central banks enjoy lower output losses during disinflationary cycles. To explain these somewhat surprising empirical findings, some authors suggest that independent central banks probably face a flatter short-run Phillips curve. In this paper, we provide both theoretical and empirical arguments to rationalize this intuition. We demonstrate that, since central bank independence reduces the mean inflation rate and its variance, wage setters opt for a lower degree of nominal wage indexation leading to more wage and price inertia and, thus, to a flatter short-run Phillips curve. Consequently, this paper put forward a channel of positive influence of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio through its impact on nominal wage indexation. Empirical tests, performed using a sample of 19 OECD countries during the 1960–1990 period, show that these theoretical results hold also empirically.     

EFFICIENT MECHANISMS FOR MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS*

We characterize incentive‐efficient merger outcomes when payments can be made both in cash and stock. Each firm has private information about both its stand‐alone value and a component of the (possibly negative) potential synergies. We study two cases: when transfers can, and cannot, be made contingent on the value of any new firm. When they can, we show that redistributing shares of any nonmerging firm generates information rents and provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the implementability of efficient merger rules. When they cannot, private information undermines efficiency more when it concerns stand‐alone values than synergies. Here, acquisitions emerge as optimal mechanisms.     

How does firm diversification impact innovation?

This study sheds light on the relationship between business diversification and innovation. A diversification strategy is both a driver of sunk costs and strategic slack. Strategic slack is a valuable reserve of knowledge, usable to foster innovation. Using linear models, we explore the interplay between research and development (R&D) and organisational slack in large and diversified companies listed on the Euronext 100 Index. We consider the diversification pattern over time, and its interactions with the following three categories: sunk costs, slack resources, and R&D. The results show an antithetic effect of diversification and slack on R&D expenditures. In contrast to unabsorbed and potential slack, diversification and sunk costs hinder innovation. However, diversification is a huge source of strategic slack and, thus, has a positive effect on innovation, indirectly.     

Equity-settled share-based payments and their (strategic) use under asymmetric information

Share-based payments are of widespread use in today's economy. Consulting firms are increasingly accepting equity compensation for their services (particularly from startups) and many governments provide fiscal incentives to support this choice. Likewise, profit-sharing licensing is an on-trend business practice by innovative firms and patent holders when transferring their technology to interested adopters. This paper unveils strategic considerations according to which an agent/seller designs its optimal policy in regard to the equity share to request in exchange for its service, technology, or trademark. The model assumes a fringe of interested users/customers differentiated by both the support they need from the seller and the value of the underlying relationship; and also holding an informational disadvantage on their own type. Given the seller's cost configuration, equilibrium outcomes entail entering a profit-sharing relationship either with the high-type customers only or with all customers. Yet, in this case, equity-based payment claims are —for rent extraction purposes— common (i.e., not differentiated) across types.     

Human capital mobility patterns in the European Union and the financial crisis

This paper provides new evidence on the quantification of economic losses and/or gains from skilled human capital mobility in terms of GDP and productivity in several EU countries during and after the Great Recession. We construct two novel indicators to quantify and compare the economic effects of human capital mobility across EU countries in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Through hierarchical clustering, we created groups of countries to perform a non-parametric MANOVA. The results suggest the existence of three groups of countries aggregated by similar economic and mobility patterns. The differences between these groups are significant and allow us to delineate the countries’ gains and losses.

     

Climate change shocks and socially responsible investments

Climate change's impact on investor behavior is a scantly investigated area in finance. This paper examines the performance of socially responsible exchange trade funds (ETFs) concerning conventional ETFs, in response to climate change events. We proxy climate change signals with a list of natural disaster events that NASA scientists relate to climate change. We contribute to existing literature, by using a very extensive information set of ETF strategies, not influenced by rating agencies' subjective evaluation policies, and covering almost 90% of the universe of worldwide sustainability thematic-oriented ETFs. This sample allows us to identify the socially responsible investment behavior in response to unpredictable climate change shocks. Our identification strategy accounts for endogeneity concerns and relies on two-stage least square (2SLS) approach finding that responsible investors react to climate change events by purchasing socially responsible investments. The relationship between climate change signals and return of investment in themes linked to the development of sustainability is positive. Interestingly enough, the sign of this relationship is different, when we disentangle the empirical results according to the asset type, confirming that investors shift their investments from equity funds to bond funds when market sentiment worsens. Our results indicate that policymakers should increase the support of firms adopting environmentally conscious business practices, while managers should boost a sustainable business strategy.     

The use of smart biosensors during a food safety incident: Consumers' cognitive-behavioural responses and willingness to pay

Intelligent and active packaging could allow consumers to control cognitive reactions linked to the risk of consuming food products contaminated by microbiological pathogens and thus mitigating negative consequences of food safety incidents. However, despite advances in technology, consumers' reactions and willingness to pay for active and intelligent packaging in the absence and presence of food safety incidents remain somewhat unexplored. To fill such a gap this study incorporates protection motivation theory (PMT) within a contingent valuation survey conducted in the UK to explore consumers' behavioural responses to risk communication in the absence and presence of a food safety incident. These responses were moderated by the possibility of buying hypothetical meat products marketed with biosensors informing consumers of the presence of bacteria post-purchase. A singular approach was developed to identify the following four behavioural responses of the PMT's cognitive mediating process: no response, fear, low response and danger control. Results indicate that the theoretical components of PMT play a different role in the absence and presence of food safety incidents. Respondents who receive risk information are willing to pay more than other participants to adopt precautionary behaviour and that purchasing behaviour varied across these four cognitive-behavioural responses. Governmental institutions, the food industry and retailers should consider working together to reassure consumers by investing in technology that may help consumers to mitigate fear during a food safety incident, but also to develop appropriate risk communication strategies that should focus more on the cognitive-behavioural outcomes analysed in this study.     

Optimality and duality in nonsmooth semi-infinite optimization,using a weak constraint qualification

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Variational analysis, a subject that has been vigorously developing for the past 40 years, has proven itself to be extremely effective at describing nonsmooth...     

Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.

     

The effect of female representation on political budget cycle and public expenditure: Evidence from Italian municipalities

This study analyzes the impact of the gender composition of political institutions on the political budget cycle (PBC) and on the size and structure of public expenditure. An instrumental variable approach is implemented to evaluate the influence of female politicians in municipal councils. The introduction of gender quotas for Italian municipalities is used as an exogenous variation in female participation in politics. The results show that: (i) fluctuations in local public spending are only slightly affected by the presence of a wider female representation; (ii) an increase in the number of elected women reduces the overall amount of public expenditure; (iii) this reduction involves fields typically affected by PBC (e.g., roads' maintenance) except those related to females' needs (e.g., kindergarten, primary education, and social care).