Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP

To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces a choice between iterating one-step-ahead forecasts (the IMS technique), or directly modeling the relationship between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known that structural breaks, unit-root non-stationarity and residual autocorrelation may improve DMS accuracy in finite samples, all of which occur when modelling the South African GDP over the period 1965–2000. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of 779 multivariate and univariate models that combine different techniques of robust forecasting. We find strong evidence supporting the use of DMS and intercept correction, and attribute their superior forecasting performance to their robustness in the presence of breaks.     

Endogenous transfers in the Prisoner's Dilemma game: An experimental test of cooperation and coordination

We test a two-stage compensation mechanism for promoting cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma games. Players first simultaneously choose binding non-negative amounts to pay their counterparts for cooperating, and then play the induced game knowing these amounts. In our games, all payment pairs consistent with mutual cooperation in subgame-perfect equilibrium transform these games into coordination games, with both mutual cooperation and mutual defection as Nash equilibria in the second stage. When endogenous transfer payments are not permitted, cooperation is much less likely. Mutual cooperation is most likely when the (sufficient) payments are identical, and it is also substantially more likely with payment pairs that bring the mutual-cooperation payoffs closer together. Both the Fehr–Schmidt and Charness–Rabin models predict that transfers that make final payoffs closer are preferred; however, they do not explain why equal transfers are particularly effective. Transfers are also effective in sustaining cooperation even when they are imposed and not chosen.     

Rejecting New Technology: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

Canada has stringent regulations covering the release of new wheat varieties, but the United States has virtually no regulations in this area. Monsanto Co. developed genetically modified (GM) spring wheat for North America, and made a commitment to the U.S. industry to release this new technology simultaneously in both Canada and the United States, or not at all. The Canadian regulatory bias against new varieties acted as a veto against GM wheat and caused Monsanto to shelve the technology in both countries in 2004. Substantial economic rents were foregone in North America due to the rejection of this new technology.     

Land degradation in the Lao PDR: Discourses and policy

While there is an important body of research on environmental discourses and policy in Southeast Asia, the situation in the Lao PDR remains understudied. This paper builds on debates related to environmental change and knowledge production and examines the socio-political construction of the current mainstream discourse on land degradation in Laos. It highlights that, despite significant uncertainties as regard the extent and severity of the issue, land degradation in the uplands is represented by the Laotian authorities and many of their development partners as a major and imminent threat to the development of the country. The paper also examines the way this perspective is translated into policies specifically aimed at resolving the upland issue and proposes an alternative reading of this process where mainstream discourse and associated policy appear partly shaped by the subjectivities and political economic projects of Laos’ policy-makers. Finally, drawing on the case of Laos, the paper provides a critical reflection on conventional approaches to assessing socio-environmental issues and defining policy interventions.     

The collective action problem: Within-group cooperation and between-group competition in a repeated rent-seeking game

This paper analyzes the ability of group members to cooperate in rent-seeking activities in a context of between-group competition. For this purpose, we develop an infinitely repeated rent-seeking game between two groups of different size. We first investigate Nash reversion strategies to support cooperative behavior in both groups, before analyzing double-edge trigger strategies which support cooperation in one group only. These last strategies have the property that cheating on the agreement in the cooperative group is followed by non-cooperation in this group and cooperation in the rival group. The main conclusion is that the set of parameters for which cooperation can be sustained within the larger group as a subgame perfect outcome is as large as that for which cooperation can be sustained in the smaller group. Hence, in contrast to Olson?s (1965) celebrated thesis, but in accordance with many informal and formal observations, larger groups can be as effective as smaller groups in furthering their interests.     

How can our cars become less polluting? An assessment of the environmental improvement potential of cars

This paper presents a systematic overview of the environmental impacts of new average diesel and petrol cars from a life cycle perspective. An analysis of different technical and non-technical improvement options that could be achieved at each stage of a car’s life cycle was performed. The consequences of the adoption of these options on the environment were estimated. The results show that some of the options analysed could have a major positive impact on the vehicle efficiency and induce large improvements of the environmental profile of passenger cars. The highest improvements are achievable through more efficient power trains (including hybrid car), and through lightweight cars. For some options, burden shifts from one car life cycle phase to another, or from one environmental problem to another, can occur. The results show that besides the purely technological options, those that imply behavioural changes by the driver may also reduce the environmental burden substantially.     

Making the best of best-of

This paper extends the analytical valuation of options on the maximum or the minimum of several risky assets in several directions. The first extension consists in including more assets in the payoff and making the latter more flexible by adding knock-in and knock-out provisions. The second extension consists in pricing these contracts in a multivariate jump-diffusion framework allowing for a stochastic two-factor term structure of interest rates. In both cases, explicit formulae are provided which yield prices quasi instantaneously and with utmost precision. Hedge ratios can be easily and accurately derived from these formulae.     

Der deutsche Bankensektor

Although Germany’s banking sector has experienced a wave of consolidation, especially since the financial crisis, the country is still home to a high number of banking institutions. When domestic economic activity was sluggish in the mid-2000s, German banks searched for sources of income abroad; some of them have massively invested in structured products. As a consequence, the financial crisis of 2007–2009 has hit German banks harder than those from other eurozone countries. The European Commission has played a key role in restructuring the sector, asking in particular that banks which have received state aid strongly reduce their balance sheets — and ordering the liquidation of one of them. Since 2010 the German banking sector has returned to the profit zone and appears more robust thanks to an increase of equity and a reduction of balance sheets. The leverage ratio remains nevertheless significant, profitability remains low in a context of strong competition on the domestic market, and some banks find themselves deeply affected by the crisis of the shipping sector.     

The labor of reputation building: Creating,developing and managing individual reputation

ABSTRACT

Reputation has become a highly valuable commodity in multiple labor markets such as sports, the arts, academia, knowledge work and fashion modelling. While reputation has always played a key role in orienting the decision-making process, what has gained increasing importance are the efforts deployed by a growing number of people to create, develop and manage their individual reputation. Building on a two-year ethnographic study with high profile professional rock climbers, this article analyzes the labor of creating and managing individual reputation. The argument follows that reputational labor revolves around the strategic convergence of work activities enabling the assemblage of concrete and tangible things subtly selected and articulated. The output of this labor, the reputation, is intelligible but has practical implications on everyday work and life that need to be acknowledged and coordinated in order to perform work effectively. Finally, I suggest an operational definition of reputational labor with the aim of providing a framework for analyzing the work tasks involved in reputation building, both directly and indirectly, while acknowledging the role of the context in this process.