The Displacement Effect of Labour‐Market Programs: MONASH Analysis*

A key question concerning labour‐market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour‐market programs. Our simulation results suggest that: (i) labour‐market programs can generate significant long‐run increases in employment; (ii) displacement percentages depend on how a labour‐market program affects the income trade‐off faced by target and non‐target groups between work and non‐work; and (iii) displacement percentages are larger in the short run than in the long run.     

DOUBLING U.S. EXPORTS UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS OF SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION

President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import‐demand curves and domestic export‐supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy‐wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession‐relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor‐demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export‐promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1‐year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)     

Analyzing Income Distribution in Australia*

This paper contains an analysis of the sources of income inequality in Australia, based on data from the ABS income survey for 1978-79. The analysis proceeds by progressive decomposition of the population into component groups differentiated by characteristics such as sex, age, employment status and occupation. At each stage of the decomposition, total inequality is partitioned into contributions from within and between the component groups, as measured by the Shorrocks Iq index. The importance of the characteristic in question as a source of inequality can then be assessed. While the results of the analysis are described in some detail, the emphasis of the paper is primarily methodological.     

THE TIMING OF REAL OPTION EXERCISE: SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

This paper briefly reviews one recent development in real options modeling. This development aims to extend traditional real options models. We show that previous models are incomplete in that only the optimal action threshold is derived. The new literature aims to provide, further information on optimal option exercise. By introducing the first passage time approach, empirically testable propositions on the probability of option exercise and the expected waiting time before an option is exercised are provided.     

ECONOMY‐WIDE EFFECTS OF REDUCING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN U.S. EMPLOYMENT

We use an economy‐wide model to analyze the effects of three broad programs to reduce illegal immigrants in U.S. employment: tighter border security; taxes on employers; and vigorous prosecution of employers. After looking at macroeconomic industry and occupational effects, we decompose the welfare effect for legal residents into six parts covering changes in: producer surplus and illegal wage rates; skilled employment opportunities for natives; aggregate capital; aggregate legal employment; the terms of trade; and public expenditure. The type of program matters. Our analysis suggests a prima facie case in favor of taxes on employers. (JEL J61, C68)     

A Decomposition of Changes in Labour Productivity in Australia: 1970-71 to 1989-90*

We show that business-cycle phenomena, climatic conditions and industrial structure are important determinants of annual variations in Australia's labour productivity growth. Another finding is that Australia's productivity slowdown in the 1980s was associated with a reduction in capital growth per unit of labour. The methodology relies on production functions at the industry level We analyze the sensitivity of results to the specification of these functions.