系统传导与多元适应:北京控规单元的演进与探索

控规单元是控制性详细规划的基本要素,是规划管控的空间网格和实施管理的基本平台.系统梳理了北京控规及控规单元从定量迈向统筹的发展历程,总结了两级单元的规划要点及其面临的需求与挑战,并立足国土空间规划体系构建的时代背景,创新提出了街区、街坊、地块的三级控规单元,详细论述了新一轮控规编制与管理的基本思路与模式方法,以全面加强控规在规划体系中有序传导以及面向实施、面向治理的多元适应能力.控规单元的探索实践有助于加深对特大城市国土空间发展建设的规律认知,为详细规划的改革探索提供思路借鉴.     

Business characteristics and efficiency of rural tourism enterprises: an empirical study from China

The booming rural tourism (RT) has broadened ways for rural revitalization and poverty alleviation strategy in China. Rural tourism enterprises (RTEs), as the core operator and a hinge delivering its benefits to rural communities, play a critical role in the achievement of RT expectation on rural revitalization. To address the research gap in business characteristics and efficiency of RTEs, and make the theoretical contribution to rural business and tourism management, this study collected and analyzed the business data with investors or managers of 60 national-class RTEs in Jiangsu Province, north Yangtze River Delta of China. The results showed that business characteristics of RTEs varied with their property, business strategy, and rural industrial base. Flexible and sustainable business operation and comprehensive regional development have a profound influence on business efficiency that presented multi spatial disparity from inter-regional and intra-regional views, respectively. In addition, the political and practical implications on rural business and RTEs for research and practice were also discussed.     

基于MaxEnt模型评估赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适生空间分布

［目的］川西横断山河谷是我国乃至世界高山酿酒葡萄的新兴产区，赤霞珠是该区域主栽品种之一。复杂的地理条件使得该区域与其他酿酒葡萄主产区的自然环境差异显著。科学评估川西横断山河谷区赤霞珠适宜空间分布，可促进该区域酿酒葡萄可持续发展。［方法］文章综合运用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术，构建了赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型，筛选出主导环境变量，利用存在概率划分适宜等级，预测了赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适宜分布。［结果］赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型准确度非常好（AUC>090）。在川西横断山河谷，主导环境变量依次为最热月平均气温、海拔、pH、秋季降雨量、年日照时数、年温差、全氮。川西横断山河谷大部分地区为不适宜区，低适宜区约为2 2752km2，中适宜区约1 29608km2。高适宜区面积为1 16428km2，且集中分布在丹巴县、小金县、金川县、九寨沟县和巴塘县。［结论］MaxEnt模型通过存在概率进行作物分布模拟和预测，对作物适宜区划具有较强应用价值和指导意义。对于不同区域和作物应注意环境变量，空间尺度，物种采样位置等问题，提高作物适宜区划精度。最后应加快该区域生产空间调整，在丹巴县、九寨沟县、金川县、小金县、巴塘县赤霞珠还有很大潜力空间，在黑水县、马尔康市、松潘县、白玉县、德荣县、康定县需适度发展，在汶川县、理县、茂县、稻城县、乡城县，应加强生产管理，减少不利环境影响。仁和区不宜再进行规模扩张。     

Conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand via QRNN model

We propose a new method for conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand through quantile regression neural network (QRNN). This method has at least two advantages. First, it is flexible to explore the true nonlinearity in the energy demand system via neural network structure. Second, it is able to describe the whole conditional distribution of energy demand via quantile regression. In the empirical study on China’s energy demand, QRNN outperforms several classical methods in terms of forecast accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. Considering China’s economic and social environment, we set a scenario for predictors and forecast the conditional density of China’s energy demand from 2015 to 2020. The empirical results show that the conditional density curve moves to right and its dispersion increases over time, which indicates that the energy demand in China will keep growing with an average annual rate of 9.672% and its uncertainty is enlarged with 42.210%.     

平台战略内核：网络效应概念演进、测度方式与研究前沿

大量研究虽以平台战略为主题，但并未将网络效应这一平台内核特征纳入分析建模，使得研究缺乏理论深度。采用文献计量和内容分析相结合的方法对网络效应相关研究进行梳理。分析发现：网络效应研究经历了3次理论演进，即同边网络效应向跨边网络效应演进（内容）、网络效应是什么向网络效应有何影响演进（作用）、网络正效应向网络负效应演进（后果）。三大演进从网络效应测度方式和行业情境中亦可窥见。结合关键词突变分析，发现网络效应最新研究已开始从关注网络效应“后果”转向“前因”考察。结合战略管理最新研究趋势，提出未来网络效应前因研究可以从个体行为、关系嵌入、种群生态、制度环境4个层面展开。特别是随着平台模式从消费互联网向产业互联网延伸，网络效应作用和激发方式是亟待关注的研究议题。     

世界经济两大板块变化趋势研判

百年变局在经济上的一个重要表现就是,发展中国家作为一个整体自20世纪90年代初冷战结束以来,获得了显著高于发达国家的经济增长率.在21世纪第一个十年,发展中国家继续保持了对发达国家的经济增速优势.但在第二个十年中,这种增速优势有所减少.资源价格、发达国家进口需求和国际直接投资流动,在最近十年出现了与经济全球化黄金时期不同的表现.2020年发生的疫情及其宏观经济政策效应,从长远看也可能给发展中国家的相对经济增长带来不利影响.针对发展中国家经济发展外部环境的重要变化,中国提出的"双循环"新发展格局应是一种积极和及时的回应.在新方针指导下,发展中国家需要以更加有效的方式做好改革开放.     

自主研发、技术改造与技术引进生态关系研究——以中国高技术产业为例

基于创新生态理论和Lotka-Volterra模型，构建高技术产业技术自主研发、技术改造与技术引进3种技术创新方式间的生态关系模型，以《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》中技术创新相关数据为样本进行实证研究，基于模型参数估计值，从自然增长率、规模限制性数、相互作用关系3个方面分析高技术产业技术创新生态关系。结果表明：高技术产业整体自主研发与技术改造的生态关系是偏利技术改造竞争，自主研发与技术引进的生态关系是协同共赢，技术改造与技术引进的生态关系是偏利技术改造竞争；不同高技术产业细分行业3种技术创新方式生态关系的差异性较大。     

浅析内部经济责任审计风险与防范

当今国家注重开展廉洁教育,因此对领导干部的经济收支进行严格监控的工作便应运而生。各国对于审计情况的规定各不相同,我国把审计工作的重心放在了行政事业单位的内部,行政机关工作人员的工作过程受到严格的规制,是对党政机关从事各种活动进行监督和管控的有效方式。内部经济责任审计是一种特殊的审计形式,它独具风格的审计体系建立在受托性质的责任关系上。因此本文将对内部经济责任审计制度进行深入分析,首先了解内部经济责任审计概念特点,从而掌握这项制度存在的风险,以此提出具体的解决措施。通过完善内部经济责任审计制度,推动风险调控系统的建立,实现行政事业系统健康持续发展。     

Government Initiated Corporate Social Responsibility Activities: Evidence from a Poverty Alleviation Campaign in China

Journal of Business Ethics - In 2016 the Chinese government initiated a nationwide campaign aiming to eliminate poverty in China by 2020. Over 20% of listed firms in China have made significant...     

Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: Evidence from Domestic Helpers in Urban China

This paper addresses the reactions of domestic helpers to the Wuhan (Hubei Province) lockdown that began on January 23, 2020. We use a novel dataset containing the information of over 40,000 Chinese domestic helpers registered on a leading professional website from November 2019 to June 2020. The results indicate a declining pattern of short-term labor supply of domestic helpers across 11 major Chinese cities, which shows an increase in the expected monthly wage of domestic helpers in these cities. More importantly, using a difference-in-difference (DID) model, this paper provides some evidence on the existence of labor market discrimination against domestic helpers born in Hubei Province due to employers’ fear of infection.