Low Mortgage Rates and Securitization: A Distinct Perspective on the US Housing Boom*

In this paper, we analyse the impacts of low interest rates and lax underwriting standards on the US housing boom around the beginning of the new millennium. We suggest a time-varying mean of the log price-to-rent ratio (PtR) to capture the persistent changes in housing prices. We show that the increasing latent trend in the PtR was significantly affected by the increased securitization of residential mortgage loans and decreasing interest rates, with the former effect being about three times larger than the latter. In the absence of securitization, negative interest rates would have been needed to reproduce an equally large housing boom since 2003.     

From carry trades to curvy trades

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of currency portfolios, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry returns fail to explain curvy trade returns.     

Avoiding household food waste,one step at a time: The role of self-efficacy,convenience orientation,and the good provider identity in distinct situational contexts

A primary cause of food waste in households is a lack of food capabilities. Yet, the antecedents of food capabilities and its relationship with causes of food waste across different situational contexts remain poorly understood. We apply self-efficacy theory in combination with convenience orientation and good provider identity in a mixed-methods study. Findings reveal that the sequential structure of self-efficacy explains how capabilities contribute to food waste avoidance. A good provider identity, however, increases food waste, and also turns out to further convenience orientation. Food capabilities, in turn, reduce convenience orientation. Qualitative insights shed light on consumer's own accounts of their abilities. The findings contribute to a theory-based understanding of how consumers manage the complex issue of food waste. Findings imply that public policy and marketing should aim to strengthen consumers' self-efficacy beliefs and redefine the good provider identity, in particular in social contexts, to reverse its effect on waste.     

Measuring Spot Variance Spillovers when (Co)variances are Time‐varying – The Case of Multivariate GARCH Models

We propose global and disaggregated spillover indices that allow us to assess variance and covariance spillovers, locally in time and conditionally on time‐t information. Key to our approach is the vector moving average representation of the half‐vectorized ‘squared’ multivariate GARCH process of the popular BEKK model. In an empirical application to a four‐dimensional system of broad asset classes (equity, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities), we illustrate the new spillover indices at various levels of (dis)aggregation. Moreover, we demonstrate that they are informative of the value‐at‐risk violations of portfolios composed of the considered asset classes.     

Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures

Review of World Economics - This paper surveys measures of economic openness, the latter being understood as the degree to which non-domestic actors can or do participate in a domestic economy....     

A web-based system architecture for ontology-based data integration in the domain of IT benchmarking

In the domain of IT benchmarking (ITBM), a variety of data and information are collected. Although these data serve as the basis for business analyses, no unified semantic representation of such data yet exists. Consequently, data analysis across different distributed data sets and different benchmarks is almost impossible. This paper presents a system architecture and prototypical implementation for an integrated data management of distributed databases based on a domain-specific ontology. To preserve the semantic meaning of the data, the ITBM ontology is linked to data sources and functions as the central concept for database access. Thus, additional databases can be integrated by linking them to this domain-specific ontology and are directly available for further business analyses. Moreover, the web-based system supports the process of mapping ontology concepts to external databases by introducing a semi-automatic mapping recommender and by visualizing possible mapping candidates. The system also provides a natural language interface to easily query linked databases. The expected result of this ontology-based approach of knowledge representation and data access is an increase in knowledge and data sharing in this domain, which will enhance existing business analysis methods.     

EU-Regulierung von Bitcoin und anderen virtuellen Währungen: erste Schritte

Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are becoming increasingly important. They are not money but are being used by a growing group of people as a means of payment and investment. Central banks and regulatory authorities have identified risks and see a need for regulation. Regulation areas with a high priority in the EU concern consumer protection, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT). The EU institutions are currently revamping the AML Directive in order to include virtual currencies for the first time. An international coordination on the regulation of virtual currencies is on the agenda of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of G20 countries.     

Still more on the speed of adjustment in inventory models: A lesson in aggregation

Applied econometric research has been troubled by the fact that estimated adjustment speeds from stock-adjustment models of inventory investment turn out to be “implausibly slow”. The paper presents new empirical evidence using business-survey data colfected by the IFO Institute Munich, Germany. It is shown empirically that there is no such a thing as an “implausibly slow” adjustment speed if estimation is done at the same level of aggregation as is requested by the underlying microeconomic theory, that is, at the level of the individual firm. Slow adjustment speeds turn out to be an artifact due to aggregation.     

The changing pattern of international trade in manufactures: A logit analysis

Zusammenfassung Ver?nderungen im Welthandel mit Industriegütern: Eine LogitAnalyse. — Dieser Aufsatz berichtet über die Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung, in der die güterm?\ige Zusammensetzung des internationalen Handels mit Industrieerzeugnissen im Wandel der Zeit geprüft wird. Die Hypothesen für eine Analyse des Konzepts der „revealed comparative advantages“ für eine L?nderquerschnittsanalyse mit vielen Gütern werden in “schwacher” Form aufgestellt und mit Hilfe des Logit-Verfahrens getestet. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen, daβ die statische Handelsstruktur ma\geblich von den Proportionen zwischen Humankapital und dem Faktor Arbeit bestimmt wird. Nicht gestützt wird die Faktorproportionenhypothese auf der Grundlage des Verh?ltnisses zwischen physischem Kapital und Arbeit. Au\erdem zeigt sich, da\ sowohl das technologische Alter der Erzeugnisse als auch wiederum die Humankapitalintensit?t wichtige Bestimmungsgründe für die Dynamik der Handelsstruktur im Sinne des Produktzyklus sind.

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Résumé La structure changeante du commerce international des produits manufacturés: une analyse logit. — Cet article rapporte les résultats d’une investigation empirique sur la composition par produit du commerce en biens manufacturiers et sur ses changements au cours du temps. L’auteur formule des hypothèses du type ?faible? et les teste en se servirant de la méthode logit et une analyse trans-pays et multi-biens de l’avantage comparatif révélé. Les résultats soulignent la dominance des proportions entre le capital humain et la main d’oeuvre comme déterminants des structures statiques du commerce, mais ne supportent pas une hypothèse des proportions de facteur basée sur le capital physique et la main-d’∄uvre. De plus, les résultats montrent que l’age technologique du produit et encore une fois l’intensité au capital humain sont des déterminants importants de la dynamique de la structure commerciale du type du cycle de bien.

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Resumen La estructura cambiante del comercio internacional en manufacturas: un análisis del tipo ?logit?. — Este artículo informa sobre los resultados de una investigación empírica de la composición de productos del comercio de manufacturas y sus cambios a través del tiempo. Para un análisis multi-productos a través de países de ventajas comparativas reveladas, se establecen hipótesis en forma ?débil? y se someten a prueba a través de un análisis de tipo ?logit?. Los resultados subrayan el dominio de proporciones capital humanomano de obra como déterminantes de las estructuras de comercio estatico, pero no sustentan una hipótesis de proporciones de factures basada en capital físico versus trabajo. Más aún, ellos sugieren la edad tecnológica del producto y de nuevo la intensidad de capital humano como los mayores determinantes de la dinámica de la estructura de comercio del tipo ciclo productivo.