Practical Problems with Reduced‐rank ML Estimators for Cointegration Parameters and a Simple Alternative*

Johansen's reduced‐rank maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for cointegration parameters in vector error correction models is known to produce occasional extreme outliers. Using a small monetary system and German data we illustrate the practical importance of this problem. We also consider an alternative generalized least squares (GLS) system estimator which has better properties in this respect. The two estimators are compared in a small simulation study. It is found that the GLS estimator can indeed be an attractive alternative to ML estimation of cointegration parameters.     

Can a Wealthy Economy Gain from an EU Membership? Adjustment Costs and Long Term Welfare Effects of Full Integration—The Norwegian Case

We employ a large scale macroeconometric model to study adjustment problems and long term welfare effects of a Norwegian EU-membership. Accession costs depend significantly on the country's level of GDP, the size of its agricultural sector and tariff and VAT revenues as these elements determine the net membership contribution. Without the transfers, integrating the economy into EU generates a small welfare gain. This result is strongly affected by a long period with under-utilisation of resources. With the net contribution included, we identify a welfare loss. This is especially so if fiscal policy is changed to maintain the public sector budgetary balance.     

Unified structural adjustment policy in Europe?

Low growth and high unemployment have induced the European Union (EU) to outline an economic programme in which long-term effective growth and structural policy measures play a central role. Simultaneously, the German government adopted an “action programme aiming at more growth and employment”, in which the efforts on the EU level play hardly any role. Is international coordination of growth and structural adjustment policy legitimated from an economic point of view or is competition between national policies more efficient?     

Increasing risk and equilibrium under uncertainty

The impact of increasing risk on social welfare and resource allocation is analysed in a general equilibrium model with endowment uncertainty. It is shown that the equilibrium allocation of resources is affected only by an increase in those risks which are important for society as a whole. In contrast, increases in purely individual risk do not influence achievable social welfare and have no effect on the utility of traders in a competitive market.     

An empirical examination of the role of vertical product differentiation in north-south trade

Conclusions Our results indicate that the general line of reasoning embodied in the recently developed models of North-South IIT would seem to be valid. The various measures of income and size similarity do seem to affect North-South IIT in the theoretically predicted way. Further, this type of trade is positively impacted by the direction of quality differences and, to a lesser degree, the extent of quality differences. Finally, it would appear that modeling this type of trade on a bilateral basis using data detailed by both industry and country has not only theoretial appeal, but is empirically useful. The results, however, do not address the mechanism which generates these quality differences between the exports of the North and South. The theoretical models use different assumptions concerning the process which generates the quality differences. Such differences may be related to capital abundance as in Falvey [1981]; a Ricardian form of comparative advantage as in Flam and Helpman [1987]; or a complex combination of the two.¹⁵ Some preliminary evidence on the role of quality differences has been given in this paper. The difficult task of explaining what generates these differences is an important issue left unaddressed at this point.