The role of demographic factors in interest rate forecasting

Slowly moving fundamental time series can be mistaken for time trends. Use of this series can increase credibility of medium-term and long-term forecasts. This paper introduces a new slowly moving fundamental time series—the age distribution of the US population—to explain trends in real US interest rates over the past 35 years. We argue that lifecycle consumption patterns at the individual level can influence aggregate saving and real interest rates. Empirical evidence is presented that supports the relationship between age distribution and expected real interest rates. Simulations of future interest rates are developed.     

The effect of CEO pay deviations on CEO withdrawal,firm size,and firm profits

We build upon previous work on the effects of deviations in CEO pay from labor markets to assess how overcompensation or undercompensation affects subsequent voluntary CEO withdrawal, firm size, and firm profitability, taking into account the moderating effect of firm ownership structure. We find that CEO underpayment is related to changes in firm size and CEO withdrawal, and that the relationship between CEO underpayment and CEO withdrawal is stronger in owner‐controlled firms. We also show that when CEOs are overpaid, there is higher firm profitability; a relationship that is weaker among manager‐controlled firms. We then discuss the implications that these findings have for future research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring New Product Success: The Difference that Time Perspective Makes

Management is often criticized for overemphasizing short-term profits at the expense of long-term growth. On the other hand, although numerous studies have explored the factors underlying new product success and failure, such studies rarely distinguish between short- and long-term success. In fact, little research has been conducted to explore the relationship between a company's time perspective and its choice of criteria for measuring new product success. For that matter, little consensus exists as to just what we mean by the term success. Expanding on work done by a PDMA task force on measurement of new product success and failure, Erik Jan Hultink and Henry S.J. Robben identify 16 core measures of new product success. In a survey of large Dutch companies, they explore managers' perceptions of new product success, hypothesizing that the importance attached to each of the 16 core measures depends on the company's time perspective. For example, they propose that criteria such as development cost and speed-to-market are more important in the short term, and return-on-investiment (ROI) is more important in the long term. The study also examines the type of market served, the innovation strategy, and the perceived innovativeness of the company's products. It is hypothesized that these factors will influence the importance the company attaches to the core measures of new product success. For example, it is expected that speed-to-market is probably more important for technological innovators than for fast imitators or cost minimizers. The findings support the hypothesis that the firm's time perspective influences the perceived importance of the core measures of success. For the short term, the respondents emphasize product-level measures such as speed-to-market and whether the product was launched on time. In the long term, the focus is on customer acceptance and financial performance, including attaining goals for profitability, margins, and ROI. Four factors are perceived as being equally important for short-term and long-term success: customer satisfaction, customer acceptance, meeting quality guidelines, and product performance level. Customer satisfaction was found to be the most important measure, regardless of a company's time perspective. Contrary to expectations, the perceived importance of the 16 core measures does not differ on the basis of the type of market, the innovation strategy, or the product's perceived innovativeness. In addition, the firm's functional orientation—technology push or market pull—does not affect the importance attached to the core measures of new product success.     

The economics of standardized patient education materials with veteran patients

With an increasing number of veterans seeking care, it becomes imperative that the resources within the system are used efficiently and effectively and in a manner that maintains access, safety, and quality of care. Veterans who are able to manage their own care may utilize provider services less frequently, thereby increasing access for others who require more care. The objective of this quality improvement study was to determine the effectiveness of providing a standardized self-management textbook of health information with the intent that it would decrease demand on primary care providers' time for minor health care issues. This initial quality improvement study clearly demonstrated the potential of the return on investment and the subsequent potential for increased access for veteran patients, appropriate use of limited resources, and improved patient outcomes. It also clearly demonstrated the value of interaction with the veterans to educate them about their care and the increased satisfaction individualized attention to their needs creates. That finding alone has a greater value than just economics.     

政体周期：前苏联地区各国的民主、专制与颜色革命

对前苏联地区各国的政体变更的研究,常常陷于追逐该地区发生的各种政治事件中。这些研究经常假定政体变更,如果不是简单的不稳定,则意味要么是朝向民主体制要么是朝向专制制度变化。本文提出政体“周期”的理论（类似于经济周期）,认为政体变更可能是循环性的,而不是简单的用进步、倒退或毫无规则等概念来定义。事实上,前苏联地区各国中,政体周期的现象非常常见。一些国家已经从专制制度向更加民主的制度转变,然后又回到更加专制的制度。随着最近发生的“颜色革命”,这些国家又向更加民主的方向转变。本文提出一个政治精英集体行动的制度主义逻辑,集中关注“大佬总统制”在其中的作用,十分有助于我们理解这种政体周期的规律。这一概念也有助于解释为什么2003年到2005年之间,乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、吉尔吉斯斯坦等国发生了“颜色革命”,而俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆和乌兹别克斯坦等国则未发生。     

Micro Convergence and Macro Convergence: Factor Price Equalization and Per Capita Income

Factor price equalization implies the equality of prices of the same productive factors across countries owing to free trade. The present paper examines the relationship between factor price equalization and the equality of per capita (per worker) incomes in the contexts of the static Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and the dynamic two-sector neoclassical growth model. Factor price equalization is shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient for equality of per capita incomes across trading countries.     

Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders

We analyze competition among informed traders in the continuous-time Kyle(1985) model, as Foster and Viswanathan (1996) do in discrete time. We explicitly describe the unique linear equilibrium when signals are imperfectly correlated and confirm the conjecture of Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992) that there is no linear equilibrium when signals are perfectly correlated. One result is that at some date, and at all dates thereafter, the market would have been more informationally efficient had there been a monopolist informed trader instead of competing traders. The relatively large amount of private information remaining near the end of trading causes the market to approach complete illiquidity.