The local economic impact of construction projects in a small and relatively self-contained economy: The case of Lancaster University

Whilst the local multiplier impacts of the annual operation of universities has been the subject of intensive research, the economic impacts of capital construction projects have been almost completely ignored. This paper presents the results of detailed analysis of capital projects at Lancaster University in 1993-The reasons for the radically different annual operation and construction multipliers estimated in the Lancaster study are examined. Despite the smaller size of construction multipliers it is argued that it is a serious mistake to estimate local construction multipliers by making simplifying assumptions on the size of the key parameters in the multiplier equations.     

Two-Part Trade Policy under Imperfect Competition

In this paper we consider the potential gain of a government pursuing a two-part trade policy: an import license for entry, along with a per-unit tariff on imports. The model is a two-stage game of complete but imperfect information. In the first stage, the domestic government sets trade policy, while in the second stage the home and foreign producers behave as Cournot competitors. The paper demonstrates that the optimal trade policy depends upon the number of firms, the degree of heterogeneity in cost functions, and the degree of convexity in cost functions.     

Information technology developments and implications for national policies

A review is made of the global status of information technology (IT) development and new opportunities identified for government IT policies. Despite operational problems, IT innovations continue apace. Poor human-computer interaction, user friendliness and lack of standardization are all key issues which must be addressed. Globalization trends, east-west politicomilitary changes and third world development, all have implications for government IT policies over the coming decade—and the right directions must be pursued now to derive real benefits from IT and move towards a true information economy.     

Firm-level interactions between exporting and productivity: Industry-specific evidence

This paper investigates interactions between exporting and productivity at the firm level, using a panel of firms in the UK chemical industry. This is both highly technology intensive and the UK’s largest exporting sector. We find exporters are more productive than non-exporters, but are also on average smaller. This superior productivity performance among exporters appears to be caused by both self-selection and learning-by-exporting effects. In contrast to other studies, we find learning effects are significantly positive among new entrants, weaker for more experienced exporters and negative for established exporters. JEL no. F14, D21, L65     

Ex-Day Price Behaviour, Market Microstructure and Settlement Costs

It is well documented that share prices on ex-dividend days drop by less than the value of the dividends paid. However, the explanations offered to date remain inconclusive. This study examines the behaviour of share prices on ex-dividend days using data from the UK after the introduction of the 1988 Income and Corporation Taxes Act. Following [10] we sub-divide the data conditional on the size of the dividend paid. We find that for the large dividend sub-sample, when the impact of market micro-structure is taken into account, the ex-dividend price drop is not significantly different to the value of the dividend paid.     

Finding Pareto Optimal Insurance Contracts

This paper deals with on-line computation—or step-wise learning—of Pareto optimal insurance contracts. Our approach tolerates that the loss distribution might be unknown, intractable, or not well specified. Thus we accommodate fairly inexperienced parties. Losses are here simulated or observed, one at a time, and they cause iterated revisions of the premium. The mechanical and global nature of probability calculus thereby yields to more tentative, myopic procedures, possibly closer to how humans operate or reason in face of risk. Sequential revisions may also reduce the expense of insurers' time and money in seeking sufficient statistics. Emphasized below is the remarkable simplicity and stability of the resulting adaptive procedures. Special attention goes to catastrophic risks, and to subsidized or competitive insurance.     

Habilitation von Ralf Hohlfeld

Ohne Zusammenfassung