STRATEGIC INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING: COMPLEXITIES, POLITICS AND PROCESSES*

This article is a preliminary report on an investigation into the processes of investment decision-making. Three case studies from three firms are presented which show disparities in a number of aspects of process, for example, the length of time taken to arrive at a decision, the number and intensity of disagreements and uncertainties encountered. Data were collected for these cases through semi-structured interviewing from multiple informants in the three organizations, thereby permitting the use of analysis of variance techniques of the different perspectives given by informants. Perceptions of the effectiveness of the decisions were also gathered. One finding from the study is that the decisions with the lowest perceived effectiveness (in firm HE) also lost support from those involved in making the decision during the process, although the decision was eventually implemented. This decision also had the least agreement amongst informants as to the main sources of disagreements. Informants of all three decisions saw effect upon product quality and productivity, fit with business strategy and competitive position of the company as the most important factors to take into account in evaluating the decisions. In firm CG, however, there were disagreements as to how the investment should be evaluated. In the conclusions to the article a disucssion is given as to the nature of evaluation procedures in relation to the developing theory of information systems.     

Legalization of drugs: Effects on the workplace

In the last few years bipartisan support for legalizing drugs has grown to a surprising level. Because of the lack of involvement of the business community in this debate, we surveyed the human resource managers of 127 firms about their perceptions of the effects of legalization. Their responses were uniformly negative, with expectations that drug use, absenteeism, worksite crime, and liability costs would increase, while the quality and quantity of work would decline. They also forecast increases in drug testing, performance monitoring, and education and rehabilitation programs as a result.     

Streets, Malls, and Supermarkets

We develop a model of competition between shopping centers, comparing competitive outcomes in three alternative modes of retail organization, namely: streets (in which neither developers or retailers internalize agglomeration effects between products); malls (in which developers internalize); and supermarkets (in which both developers and retailers internalize). For a fixed number of centers: (i) converting streets to malls intensifies developer (but not retailer) competition, which increases product range (i.e., the number of shops built by the developers) and consumer surplus, reduces profits, and has ambiguous effects on welfare; (ii) converting streets to supermarkets intensifies retailer and developer competition, has ambiguous effects on product range (number of shops), reduces profits, and increases social welfare. With free entry both conversions reduce the number of centers and, if there is excess entry, conversion to supermarkets (but not malls) unambiguously increases welfare.     

An analysis of some aspects of regulatory risk and the required rate of return for public utilities

This paper uses a modification of the continuous time asset pricing model of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross to analyze the effect of regulatory risk on the cost of capital. Analysis shows that random errors in setting the allowed rate of return can either increase or decrease the cost of capital depending on other regulatory parameters. However, the analysis suggests that regulatory risk is not material.     

Asymmetric FDI and tax-treaty bargaining: theory and evidence

Tax treaties are often viewed as a mechanism for eliminating tax competition, however, this approach ignores the need for bargaining over the treaty's terms. This paper focuses on how bargaining can affect the withholding taxes set under the treaty. In a simple framework, we develop hypotheses about patterns in treaty tax rates. A key determinant for these patterns is the relative size of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. In plausible situations, more asymmetric countries will negotiate treaties with higher tax rates. This theory is then tested using 1992 data from US and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) bilateral tax treaties. Overall, the data supports the prediction that greater asymmetric FDI activity increases the negotiated tax rates.     

Developing Theories of Strategy Using Dominance Criteria

This article identifies key features of the strategy concept as a basis for reviewing existing theories of strategy. It also provides an agenda for future research. the article argues that there is a decision hierarchy in a firm, and defines strategy as the highest-level decision in the hierarchy. Consequently, strategy has to exhibit what may be called three features of dominance: vertical dominance, horizontal dominance, and dynamic dominance. A vertically dominant strategy is one that determines, directly or indirectly, other decisions of a firm. A horizontally dominant strategy seeks to optimize the value of the firm according to some criteria. Dynamic dominance implies that strategy should affect the subsequent decisions of a firm over a relevant period of time. With few exceptions, existing theories of strategy are issue-oriented and focus largely on horizontal dominance. More research should, therefore, be directed towards vertical and dynamic dominance criteria. If a comprehensive theory of strategy which satisfies the three dominance features cannot be developed, it is suggested that development should be directed towards integrating behavioural and economic approaches.     

Retroactive Liability or the Public Purse?

The article addresses the question of whether responsibility for pollution created in the past should be retroactively applied to firms, or if the costs of cleaning up existing pollution should be financed by the public. We show that making firms liable for retrospective environmental costs can weaken the incentive to take precautions against future environmental costs. This follows since public financing of these costs can lead to greater prospective risk deterrence by allowing firms to more fully internalize the costs of future environmental risks. However, an analysis of existing public financing approaches highlights a set of dangers associated with their practical use.     

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 2: Formal model of the resolution process

In a drama, characters' preferences and options change under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus they undergo change and development. A formal model of dramatic transformation is presented that shows how the core of a drama is transformed by the interaction among the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process is seen to be driven by actors' reactions to various paradoxes of rationality.