ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND INCOME INEQUALITY REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

We investigate the causal relationship between income inequality and economic freedom using data from U.S. states over the period 1981 to 2004 within a panel error correction model framework. The results indicate bidirectional causality between income inequality and economic freedom in both the short and the long run. These results suggest that high income inequality may cause states to implement redistributive policies causing economic freedom to decline. As economic freedom declines, income inequality rises even more. In other words, it is quite possible for a state to get caught in a vicious circle of high income inequality and heavy redistribution. (JEL D63, H11)     

WHEN DOES DETERMINACY IMPLY EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY?

Since the introduction of rational expectations, there have been issues with multiple equilibria and equilibrium selection. We study the connections between determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium and learnability of that equilibrium in a general class of purely forward‐looking models. Our framework is sufficiently flexible to encompass lags in agents' information and either finite horizon or infinite horizon approaches to learning. We are able to isolate conditions under which determinacy does and does not imply learnability and also conditions under which long‐horizon forecasts make a clear difference for learnability. Finally, we apply our result to a relatively general New Keynesian model.     

What Should Be Our Human Capital Investment Policy?

This paper considers the magnitude of the human capital investment required to offset the increase in the inequality in labour earnings in the US economy since 1979. It considers the ineffectiveness of government training policies, the effectiveness of private sector training and the conflict between economic efficiency and the work ethic. It also considers revisions of the tax code. The importance of the distinction between the long view and the short view in analysing human resource policies is emphasised. JEL classification: J24, I28, H40.     

Evaluation of market efficiency for supplementary accounting disclosures: The case of pension assets and liabilities*

Abstract. This paper examines the extent to which stock prices fully reflected the off-balance-sheet item net over- (under-) funded pension liabilities during the four-year period 1979–82. The evidence suggests that the market was informationally inefficient and that it displayed a general underreaction relative to the net pension liability. Significant excess returns could have been earned by using the net pension liability as an instrument for portfolio selection. The empirical analysis fails to identify the existence of confounding variables such as beta risk, size, or industry effects. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent dans quelle mesure le cours des actions a reflété l'évolution du poste net hors bilan de l'excédent (ou du déficit) de provisionnement de la dette au titre des régimes de retraite, pendant la période de quatre ans écoulée entre 1979 et 1982. Les constatations des auteurs laissent supposer que le marché était inefficient sur le plan informationnel et qu'il a enregistré une réaction générale mitigée à la dette nette au titre des régimes de retraite. L'utilisation de la dette nette au titre des régimes de retraite comme critère de sélection de portefeuilles aurait permis d'obtenir des rendements excédentaires importants. L'analyse empirique ne parvient pas à déterminer l'existence de variables contradictoires telles que le risque Beta, la taille ou les effets du secteur.     

Manufacturing Industry and the Balance of Payments Adjustment: The United Kingdom Case

The thesis of this essay is that it is unlikely that economic growth in the UK during the rest of the 1990s will be balance-of-payments constrained in any significant sense. Our conclusion is that manufacturing industry does not and will not play a unique role in Britain's economic future. These propositions are not to be confused with two distinct and related ones. The first is that the fact that the balance of payments need not be seen as a constraint does not rule out the possibility of other problems associated with the balance of payments such as we have seen in the recent past. Secondly, the fact that manufacturing industry is not in any sense a unique part of economic activity in no way lessens its importance as a major and significant sector. This paper is in no sense a critique of manufacturing industry.