SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE UK AND EC PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

The political strength in the EC and UK of the belief that high levels of self-sufficiency make food supplies more secure is demonstrated and explained. The relationship is examined analytically and critically, taking particular account of the priority of food, adjustment costs, and linkages between agriculture and other sectors. The need for a policy of food security in Western Europe is discussed in relation to military, crop and trade uncertainties. Finally, the elements of a more rational policy, including measures of storage, procurement and production independence, are outlined.     

New Products and Financial Risk Changes

The historic focus of new products research has been on the ability of new products to enhance the profitability and competitive position of the innovating firm. In this article, Timothy Devinney shows that there exists an overlooked and potentially significant side effect associated with new product innovations: financial risk changes. He reports that significant financial risk changes occurred in approximately 50% of the new product announcements he examined. The magnitude of these financial risk changes translates into overestimates or underestimates of the firm's cost of capital by 17% to 18% and is strongly and positively related to the size of the firm and the firm's new product innovation activity.     

Poverty status and expenditure patterns: comparison between elderly and non-elderly households

The purpose of this study was to find out if significant differences exist in patterns of expenditures between elderly and non-elderly consumers, taking poverty status into account. Cluster analysis was used to identify expenditure patterns. Four different expenditure patterns were found. Elderly middle-income and affluent households were more likely to belong to service-using cluster than non-elderly poor households. Nonelderly households were more likely to belong to shelter-dominated cluster than elderly households. Poor households were more likely to belong to homebound cluster, while non-poor households were more likely to belong to car-centred cluster.     

Economic relations between the EU and East Asia: Past, present and future

Present economic linkages between the European Union and East Asia are relatively underdeveloped despite the fact that a number of EU member states have deep historical associations within the region. It is imperative that EU business engages itself more intensively in East Asia if Europe is not to become marginalised in an emergent “Pacific century”. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A02GP109 00002     

The Proactive Corporation: Its Nature and Causes

We argue that the stakeholder perspective on corporate social responsibility is in the process of being enlarged. Due to the process of institutional isomorphism, corporations are increasingly adopting organizational features designed to promote proactivity over mere reactivity in their stakeholder relationships. We identify two sources of pressure promoting the emergence of the proactive corporation -- stakeholder activism and the recognition of the social embeddedness of the economy. The final section describes four organizational design dimensions being installed by the more proactive corporations today -- cooperation, participation, negotiation, and direct anticipation.     

Using an approximate kiefer-weiss solution for testing insect population densities

Summary A sequential testing procedure called 2-SPRT for the meanμ of the negative binomial distribution with known exponentk is presented. For any fixedμ ₀(μ ₁<μ ₀<μ ₂), the 2-SPRT provides an asymptotic solution to the modified Kiefer-Weiss problem. Determination ofμ ₀ such that the test provides an approximate solution to the Kiefer-Weiss problem is described. The behavior of the 2-SPRT and the Sequential Probability Ratio Test is investigated using Monte Carlo methods. The error probabilities and the average sample numbers are compared. All the computations were carried out on the Alabama Supercomputer.     

VAR,ERROR CORRECTION AND PRETEST FORECASTS AT LONG HORIZONS

This paper focuses on the construction of forecasts over long horizons where a typical long-horizon forecast might span four years using 20 to 40 years’ data. It is argued that the presence of persistence in the form of unit or near-unit autoregressive roots poses substantial difficulties for long-horizon interval and point forecasting. These difficulties may not be overcome even by efficient pre-testing or model-selection procedures and might, in general, lead to point forecasts with large asymptotic root mean squared errors and undesirably wide prediction intervals.     

On invariant parametric covariance families

Summary In this note we characterize all linear transformations of random vectors which are invariant for a given parametric covariance family. Two one-dimensional covariance families are discussed in detail.