Risks and the financing of PPP: Perspectives from the financiers

Public private partnerships (PPP) are an established model for most governments internationally to provide infrastructure-based services, using private finance. Typically the public authority will sign a contract with a special purpose vehicle (SPV), which, because of the holistic nature of PPP, in turn sub-contracts the finance, design, construction, maintenance and soft services to companies that are often related to its shareholders. Thus there is a considerable network of linked organisations that together procure and provide the PPP project.While there is an increasing body of research that examines these PPP projects, much of it is interview or case study based so that the evidence is drawn from a small number of interviews or cases in specific sectors. It also focuses on the public sector procurer and the private sector contractor in the network of organisations. Although it has been recognised that the perceptions of the financiers may vary from those of other key PPP players there is much less research that focuses on the financiers.In this paper we report the results of a postal questionnaire survey, administered to 109 providers of senior debt and equity, from which the response rate was just less than 40%. We supplement these findings with a small number of illustrative quotes from interviewees, where the cited quote represents a commonly held view. We used SPSS and Nvivo to analyse the data.The findings show that when assessing PPPs financiers perceive a very wide range of risks as important, and that it is important to them that many of these risks are either insured or allocated to sub-contractors. When considering participating in PPPs, financiers agree that working with familiar partners on familiar projects and in familiar sectors is important, which may raise barriers to entry and undermine competitive processes.     

Influence of national and engineering culture on team role selection

Engineering education is an emerging field of research. Due to its applied nature, recent theoretical developments have been followed by empirical evidence and interdisciplinary research. The present study attempted to describe the team roles assumed by members of project teams composed of young engineering students. The study was conducted in Pakistan by using the Belbin Team Role Self Perception Inventory. It was found that young Pakistani engineers assumed the roles of implementer, coordinator, shaper and team worker. This study attempts to understand role choices through the framework of national cultural dimensions proposed by Hofstede and engineering education culture offered by Godfrey and Parker. The study strongly recommends that engineering curriculum should incorporate activities which could foster creativity among engineers. Moreover, engineering students should be motivated to innovate through collaboration in a problem and project based environment, which is seriously lacking in engineering education of Pakistan.     

Role of banks in financial inclusion in India

Financial inclusion is emerging as a new paradigm of economic growth that plays major role in driving away the poverty from the country. It refers to delivery of banking services to masses including privileged and disadvantaged people at an affordable terms and conditions. Financial inclusion is important priority of the country in terms of economic growth and advanceness of society. It enables to reduce the gap between rich and poor population. In the current scenario financial institutions are the robust pillars of progress, economic growth and development of the economy. The present study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion on growth of the economy over a period of seven years. Secondary data is used which has been analyzed by multiple regression model as a main statistical tool. Results of the study found positive and significant impact of number of bank branch and Credit deposit ratio on GDP of the country, whereas an insignificant impact has been observed in case of ATMs growth on Indian GDP.     

Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large U.S. scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias leads to the underestimation of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year for the products examined.     

A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate

We propose a forward-looking method to estimate the path for the federal funds target rate. We utilize six-month out probabilities of inflationary and disinflationary pressures, along with a labor market index, to estimate the fed funds rate. We further suggest that due to the changing nature of economies and impending risks to the economic outlook, a time-varying method (consistent with the nature of risks) would help decision makers to improve effective decision making. Our econometric results suggest disinflation (or disinflationary pressure), not inflationary pressure, best explains fed funds rate movements from the 1990s forward. Based on June 2016 data, there is a 55 percent chance that the inflation rate would stay below 1.5 percent during the next six months. The recent higher disinflationary pressure probability may be one reason the FOMC has repeatedly lowered its path for the fed funds rate. Unfortunately, the low-inflation zombie is real.     

Is Predicting Recessions Enough?

We propose an ordered probit framework to simultaneously predict the probabilities of recession, weaker recovery, and stronger recovery. Our approach helps identify (a) whether the next phase is a recession, (b) when the recovery period starts, and (c) whether the recovery would be a weak or strong one compared to historical standards. We believe our approach would help policy makers decide when would be appropriate to (1) start expansionary policies (higher probabilities of recession), (2) continue expansionary policies (higher probabilities of weaker recovery), or (3) turn to neutral/contractionary policies (higher probabilities of stronger recovery). The ordered probit model shows the probabilities of recession staying above 50 percent during all five recessions in our simulated out-of-sample analysis of 1980:Q1–2016:Q1. The probabilities of weaker recovery are consistent with actual periods of below trend growth. Based on 2016:Q1 data, the model suggests a meaningfully higher chance of continuing below trend growth. One key result is that the probability of weaker growth has been persistently higher than the other two scenarios for the past several years. These higher probabilities of weak growth are consistent with the accommodative monetary policy stance of the past eight years.     

Measuring a boom and bust: The Sydney housing market 2001–2006

The Sydney housing market peaked in 2003. The period 2001–2006 is, therefore, of particular interest since it captures a boom and bust in the housing market. We compute hedonic, repeat-sales and median price indexes for five regions in Sydney over this period. While the three approaches are in broad agreement regarding the timing of the turning point in the housing market, some important differences also emerge. In particular, we find evidence of sample selection bias in our hedonic and repeat-sales data sets (with the former focusing more on better quality dwellings and the latter more on lower quality dwellings). These sample selection biases could in turn cause bias (in opposite directions) in our hedonic and repeat-sales indexes. Median indexes may likewise be biased as a result of an apparent decline in the average quality of dwellings sold in the latter part of the sample. We also find evidence of convergence in prices across regions during the boom and divergence in the subsequent bust.     

Robust estimation of the simplified multivariate GARCH model

In this paper, robust M-estimation of multivariate GARCH models are considered. The simplified GARCH model is chosen that involves the estimation of only univariate GARCH models, and hence easy to estimate, and does not put additional constraints on the model. The results of Monte Carlo simulations showed that accurate estimates of conditional correlations can be obtained using these robust estimators when the errors are heavy-tailed. We also investigate the forecasting performance of the class of robust estimators in predicting value-at-risk using various evaluation measures and collect empirical evidences of the better predictive potential of estimators such as LAD and B-estimator over the widely-used quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the estimation and prediction of multivariate GARCH models. Applications to real data sets are also presented.     

Do Big-Four affiliates earn audit fee premiums in emerging markets?

The paper investigates whether Big-Four affiliated (B4A) firms earn audit premiums in an emerging economy context, using Bangladesh as a case. The joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees is also examined using a sample of 122 companies listed in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. Our findings reveal that although the B4A firms do not generally earn a fee premium in Bangladesh, they charge higher audit fees for clients not purchasing non-audit services. This suggests that the B4A firms may actually lower audit fees to attract non-audit services, and cross subsidizes audit fees through non-audit-services fees. The lack of a B4A premium implies that there is lack of quality audit in emerging markets. We also document that audit and non-audit service fees are jointly determined in Bangladesh. Thus, we provide evidence of joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees in an emerging economy context.