External Imbalances and the Extensive Margin of Trade

We quantify the role of the extensive margin in the recent trade dynamics of selected countries that are running large and persistent trade imbalances. We find that the role of the extensive margin is quite substantial, although it varies in significance across the countries in the sample. Finally, we highlight differences in behaviour between the fixed‐varieties and varieties‐adjusted terms of trade.     

Testing Competing Models of the Leisure Constraint Negotiation Process in a Corporate Employee Recreation Setting

Four models of leisure constraint negotiation (independence, buffer, mitigation, reduction) based on competing views of how constraint, negotiation, and motivation are interconnected and influence participation were tested using regression and structural equation modeling procedures. Full-time employees ( N = 186, X age = 36.7 years, 64.5 percent females) of four companies with similar work site recreation services completed a survey measuring participation in work site physical recreation activities, constraint on participation, negotiation resources, and motivation to participate. Strong support was found for the constraint - effects - mitigation model. Though constraints decreased the level of participation, they also triggered greater use of negotiation resources, which counteracted their negative effects. Stronger health and enjoyment motives also resulted in employees increasing negotiation efforts. The results support several of the constraint negotiation propositions developed by Jackson, Crawford, and Godbey (1993) and a theoretical model that clarifies the role of motivation and distinguishes between the negotiatory and facilitatory functions of negotiation resources.     

The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns

We study asset pricing in economies featuring both risk and uncertainty. In our empirical analysis, we measure risk via return volatility and uncertainty via the degree of disagreement of professional forecasters, attributing different weights to each forecaster. We empirically model the typical risk-return trade-off and augment these models with our measure of uncertainty. We find stronger empirical evidence for an uncertainty-return trade-off than for the traditional risk-return trade-off. Finally, we investigate the performance of a two-factor model with risk and uncertainty in the cross section.     

Matching,Reallocation and Changes in Earnings Dispersion*

The ‘fractal’ nature of the rise in earnings dispersion is one of its key features. In this paper, we offer a new perspective on the causes of changes in earnings dispersion, focusing on the role of labour reallocation. We set out a framework showing that job and worker reallocation affects earnings dispersion. We quantify this using a data set comprising almost the universe of workers and employers in Maryland. The changing allocation of workers to jobs played a significant role in explaining movements in the dispersion of earnings.     

Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Advertising: Theory and Application to Generic Commodity Promotion Programs

Profits from generic advertising by a producer group often come partly at the expense of producers of closely related commodities. The resulting tendency toward excessive advertising is exacerbated by check-off funding. To analyze this beggar-thy-neighbor behavior we compare a scenario where different producer groups cooperate and choose their advertising expenditures jointly to maximize the sum of profits across the groups, and a scenario where they optimize independently. In an illustrative example using 1998 data for U.S. beef and pork, the noncooperatively chosen expenditure on beef and pork advertising is more than three times the cooperative optimum.     

Transitional Progress and Business Challenges

Eight Central European and Baltic countries have joined the European Union in May 2004. Transitioning economies need to develop a business environment with a healthy financial sector to realize economic growth. This paper uses two classification methods, the discriminant analysis and taxonomic measure, to investigate the possibility of the South Eastern European and Commonwealth of Independent transitional countries to develop an enterprise and business environment that is compatible with the newest European Union (EU8) members. This paper found that the EU8 countries are correctly classified as having transitioned successfully in their business development. Bulgaria and Croatia have transitioned closely to the EU8. However, Romania, Ukraine, and the Commonwealth of Independent countries are not close to the EU8 in achieving a compatible business environment.      

Information Uncertainty and Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift

Abstract:  We examine whether rational investor responses to information uncertainty (IU) explain properties of and returns to the post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) trading anomaly. Consistent with a rational learning explanation, we find that: (1) unexpected earnings (UE) signals that are characterized as having greater IU have more muted initial market reactions; (2) extreme UE portfolios are characterized by securities with higher IU than non-extreme UE portfolios; and (3) within the extreme UE portfolios, high IU securities are more prevalent and earn larger abnormal returns than low IU securities. Further tests show that prior evidence of greater PEAD profitability for higher idiosyncratic volatility securities is explained by the greater information uncertainty associated with these securities.