Mean-variance hedging with oil futures

We analyze mean-variance-optimal dynamic hedging strategies in oil futures for oil producers and consumers. In a model for the oil spot and futures market with Gaussian convenience yield curves and a stochastic market price of risk, we find analytical solutions for the optimal trading strategies. An implementation of our strategies in an out-of-sample test on market data shows that the hedging strategies improve long-term return-risk profiles of both the producer and the consumer.     

A pragmatic service typology: capturing the distinctive dynamics of services in time and space

Many service classifications have provided helpful yet partial perspectives on the heterogeneity of services. This paper reconciles and integrates different earlier classifications into a new holistic typology of the service economy which is based on detailed statistical service sectors. Moreover, the paper assesses the empirical value of this taxonomy to capture the diversity of services development in time and space. A regional analysis of employment data in Germany provides evidence that knowledge intensive as well as business services follow very different sectoral and spatial dynamics than operational and consumer services. This typology yields differential insights in longitudinal and comparative regional analysis of the service economy.     

The co-occurrence of self-observed norm-conforming behavior,reduction of zero observations and remaining measurement quality

Norm-violating behavior is characterized by clear social norms which prescribe the non-occurrence of that behavior. From the theoretical framework of Allport it is derived that specifically norm-conformation is consistent, while violating norms is expected to be inconsistent and more circumstantial. This is in contrast to test-theoretic approaches of delinquent behavior that assume that various norm-violating responses form a consistent answer pattern that is scalable and reliable. In this study we study the inter-correlations, scalability and reliability of norm-violating responses and their relation with the reduction of zero observations. In concordance with Allport’s view it is expected that different norm-violating self-report items have limited interrelatedness and are limited in scalability and reliability in the norm-violating sub-population. The NLSY98 self-report data show that a large majority of respondents (69 %) conform systematically to all ten different norms, while only nine percent admits more than two different violations. The results show that in subsamples of norm-violating respondents, the correlations between items become closer to zero, dependent on the amount of zero reduction. Furthermore, both Loevinger’s H coefficient of scalability and scale reliability become unsatisfactorily low, when 35 % or more strict norm-conforming subjects are removed.     

Expectation formation and regime switches

Economic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expectation formation has hardly been explored in this context. We report about a laboratory experiment whose participants judgmentally forecast three time series subject to regime switches. The participants make forecasts without context knowledge and without support from statistical software. Their forecasts are only based on the previous realizations of the time series. Our interest is the explanation of the average forecasts with a simple model, the bounds & likelihood heuristic. In previous studies it was shown that this model can explain average forecasting behavior very well given stable and stationary time series. We find that the forecasts after a structural break are characterized by a higher variance and less accuracy over several periods. Considering this transition phase in the model, the heuristic performs even slightly better than the Rational Expectations Hypothesis.     

Putting Ethics on the Agenda for Real Estate Agents

This article uses sociological role theory to help understand ethical challenges faced by Norwegian real estate agents. The article begins with an introductory case, and then briefly examines the strengths and limitations of using legal definitions and rules for understanding real estate agency and real estate agent ethics. It goes on to argue that the ethical challenges of real estate agency can be described and understood as a system of conflicting roles with associated rights and duties, in particular sales agent, intermediary and adviser sub-roles. The arguments are developed using exploratory findings from a survey of Norwegian real estate agents and from several focus groups. The article then suggests the use of various intranet tools as a kind of action research aimed at putting ethics on the real estate agents’ agenda, working to develop a collective conscience and collective self- criticism among the agents, and, in doing so, building bridges between academic research and the practical working world of the agents.     

Belief-free price formation

We analyze security price formation in a dynamic setting in which long-lived dealers repeatedly compete for the opportunity to trade with short-lived retail traders. We characterize equilibria in which dealers’ pricing strategies are optimal irrespective of the private information that each dealer may possess. Thus, our model’s predictions are robust to different specifications of the dealers’ information structure. These equilibria reconcile, in a unified and parsimonious framework, price dynamics that are reminiscent of well-known stylized facts: excess price volatility, price to trading flow correlation, stochastic volatility and inventory-related trading.     

From carry trades to curvy trades

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of currency portfolios, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry returns fail to explain curvy trade returns.     

Using Panel Data on Income Satisfaction to Estimate Equivalence Scale Elasticity

In this paper, the equivalence scale elasticity will be estimated by using individual panel data on income satisfaction from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP). Satisfaction or happiness data have been more frequently used by economists in recent years to analyze individual well-being. The approach differs from other subjective approaches as respondents are requested to evaluate current income rather than income in hypothetical situations. The estimated scale elasticity is higher compared to those from other subjective approaches based on German data. In addition, panel data enable different scale use by the respondents to be controlled. It can be shown that elasticity decreases when unobserved fixed-effects are controlled for.     

A review of integrated QCA and statistical analyses

Systematically combining quantitative and qualitative research approaches offers the potential for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of social scientific phenomena. With their strong opportunities for building, qualifying, and testing social scientific theories, methodological integrations thus enable researchers to make substantive contributions that would not have been possible with one method alone. In this article we demonstrate how the integration of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and conventional statistical analysis offers researchers new opportunities for contributing to the social sciences. Whereas statistical analysis is variable-oriented and relies on correlational analysis to make comparisons across cases, QCA is based on set theory, is case oriented, and relies on Boolean algebra to make comparisons between cases. Drawing on the literature on the interdependency between theoretical contribution and methodology, we review studies that integrate QCA and statistical analysis to explain how the specific combination of these two approaches allows researchers to strengthen the theoretical contribution of their research. From our review we identify common challenges and provide solutions for integrating QCA and statistical analysis.