中国经济未老先富——中国经济中长期展望

我的讲话内容主要是对中国经济中长期的看法,短期由于各种调控,股价上下波动很正常,但是从中长期趋势看是向上走的,我主要从以下几个方面进行论述:一是将中国现在的情况和日本七十年代进行对比,发现有很多相似之处,其中包括最重要的方面是产业和出口结构的升级当然还有消费结构的升级;另外,中国和日本也有很多不同的地方,这决定了中国的走势和幅度和日本相比可能有所不同;最后,经济增长主要是生产率的推动.     

中国的利率和汇率问题

2005年全球经济面临失衡,一方面是美国巨额的贸易赤字,一方面是发展中国家积累了大量的贸易顺差,尤其是中国持续的双顺差.全球经济失衡,中国经济也不平衡,那么中国自身不平衡的问题到底在哪里?宏观经济政策,尤其是利率、汇率政策该如何尽可能化解失衡带来的风险?     

论我国消费信贷发展的制约因素及对策

实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，进一步扩大内需，是近年来我国财政、金融政策的热点，本拟就如何发展我国消费信贷方面进行探讨。     

Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Counts

This paper examines the effect of environmental policies on technological innovation in the specific case of renewable energy. The analysis is conducted using patent data on a panel of 25 countries over the period 1978–2003. We find that public policy plays a significant role in determining patent applications. Different types of policy instruments are effective for different renewable energy sources. Broad-based policies, such as tradable energy certificates, are more likely to induce innovation on technologies that are close to competitive with fossil fuels. More targeted subsidies, such as feed-in tariffs, are needed to induce innovation on more costly energy technologies, such as solar power.     

The response of the Dollar/Yen exchange rate to economic announcements

The paper examines the impact of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements on the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. We find that these announcements are responsible for most intraday and day-of-the-week volatility patterns in this market and we identify the most important announcements. The initial reaction to a major 8:30 announcement begins around 8:30:10 and lasts until about 8:30:50. A partial price correction is normally observed between 8:31 and 8:32. Price movements after 8:32 are basically independent of those observed earlier although volatility continues to be higher than normal until about 8:55.     

Leveraging internal and external experience: exploration,exploitation, and R&D project performance

Although one tenet in the alliance literature is that firms learn from prior experience, we posit that any potential learning effects depend on the type of experience. In particular, we hypothesize that alliance exploitation experience has positive effects on R&D project performance, while alliance exploration experience has negative effects. We further posit that an internal exploration competence allows firms to leverage their external exploitation experience more fully. In contrast, when firms combine internal exploitation experience with external exploration experience, the negative effects on R&D project performance become more pronounced. To test this integrative model of organizational learning, we leverage a unique and detailed dataset of 412 R&D projects in biotechnology conducted by large pharmaceutical companies between 1980 and 2000. Using a competing risk event history model predicting successful product approval versus project termination, we find support for our theoretical model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bribery and firm survival in Vietnam: Moderating effects of market competition,credit, and institutional constraints

This paper examines the relationship between bribery and firm survival when facing different levels of market competition, credit constraints, and other institutional limitations. Using panel data from surveys of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Vietnam over a 10-year period and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model approach, we provide empirical support for the “greasing-the-wheels” hypothesis of firm survival. Effects are found to be more pronounced for formally registered and larger firms, explained by their greater bargaining power vis-à-vis public officials. Moreover, bribery as a “risk-of-exit” reducing strategy is found only for firms not institutionally or financially constrained and for firms operating in sectors with low levels of competition.