A quantitative perspective of Porter's industry forces framework for investment analysis

Porter's industry forces framework is an important tool for external analysis of firms, but its qualitative nature presents numerous limitations to be used in investment analysis. This study introduces a quantitative perspective of the framework using financial information proxies. This allows investors to gauge the external factors quantitatively and to gain enhanced framework usability. In order to test its validity, the correlation movements of our quantitative perspective have been analysed. For demonstration of enhanced usability, our quantitative perspective, alongside machine learning models, was used to predict business performances. The empirical results indicate that our quantitative perspective of the framework corroborates with its original definition and that it exhibits enhanced usability than the original framework.     

Does local political support influence financial markets? A study on the impact of job approval ratings of political representatives on local stock returns

Using data on job approval ratings of governors, U.S. senators, and the president, we find that firms located in states with high approval ratings outperform firms located in states with low approval ratings by .64% per month. Furthermore, this relationship is stronger when investors are actively involved in politics, when local politicians are closer to the center of political power, for small firms that have a larger proportion of local investors, and for financially strong areas where investors are ready to execute investments in local stocks. Overall, our study shows that investors’ political sentiment is important in determining stock returns.     

South Korea’s outward direct investment and its dyadic determinants: Foreign aid,bilateral treaty and economic diplomacy

This study investigates the factors that affect South Korean outward foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries. Most previous studies focus on monadic factors and do not consider how and to what extent bilateral relationships between South Korea and the host countries affect the investment decisions of Korean firms. The current study finds that interstate factors such as South Korea's international investment treaties with and official development assistance to host countries have positive effects on FDI to these countries, while presidential visits have strong and statistically significant effects on FDI only in countries located in non-Asian regions, especially the African continent. The findings suggest that the effects of bilateral relations on South Korea's FDI vary depending on the geographic location of the host country.     

Industry Shock Expectations,Interindustry Linkages,and Merger Waves: Evidence from the Hospital Industry

It is well known that mergers often occur in waves, and this paper develops a new mechanism for merger waves: expectations over industry shocks. We develop a simple test of this explanation and use it to explore the role of expectations in the context of the 1990s hospital merger wave. Managed care such as Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) started to become popular in the late 1980s and ultimately became an important player in the health insurance market. Our empirical analysis shows that the expected increase in the popularity of HMOs was partly responsible for the hospital merger wave of the 1990s: hospitals feared that the “innovation” of managed care in the downstream insurance market would penetrate the upstream hospital market and responded to this belief by merging. Our results show the importance of incorporating expectations and interindustry linkages into the understanding of merger waves.     

The role of brand schemas,information transparency,and source of message on apparel brands' social responsibility communication

In today's complex business environment, apparel brands are communicating about their socially responsible (SR) practices through marketing messages to create a niche for themselves and show their SR efforts. However, SR aspects of products are difficult to verify by consumers. To help brands effectively communicate their SR efforts, this study assessed how consumers process an apparel brand's SR messages based on their prior experiences with that brand (brand schemas). Information transparency on messages and source of messages were tested as external cues to influence consumers' brand schemas and SR message evaluations in a mixed method repeated measures online experiment using a national US consumer sample. Results from regression-based conditional process analyses indicated that increased congruity of consumers' schemas to the fact that brands are SR led to more favorable attitude toward brands' SR messages. Also, presence of high information transparency on SR messages influenced consumers' schemas positively, and in turn, they evaluated messages more favorably. However, consumers were not influenced by whether messages were made by brands or third-party organizations. The study results show the importance of brand schemas and information transparency on apparel brand communications, helping both apparel brands and educators create effective SR-related marketing strategies.     

Short-term forecasting of Japanese tourist inflow to South Korea using Google trends data

We utilize the Internet search data from Google Trends to provide short-term forecasts for the inflow of Japanese tourists to South Korea. We construct the Google variable in a systematic way by combining keywords to minimize mean squared or mean absolute forecasting errors. We augment the Google variable to the standard time-series forecasting models and compare their forecasting accuracies. We find that Google-augmented models perform much better than the standard time-series models in terms of short-term forecasting accuracy. In particular, Google models show better out-of-sample forecasting performance than in-sample forecasting.     

Residents’ attitudes toward future tourism development in terms of community well-being and attachment

This study explores residents’ attitudes toward future tourism development based on their community well-being (CWB) and community attachment. Focusing on the case of Gamcheon Culture Village in Busan, South Korea, which was developed during an urban regeneration project in 2009, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted. The main findings of this study are: (1) CWB is supported by five variables including income effects, social participation, safety service, infrastructure service, and environmental effect; (2) not only does CWB influence community attachment but attachment also effects residents’ attitudes; and (3) the most effective variable of CWB is income effect, and safety service for community attachment. These results can help to provide effective strategies to encourage residents to have positive attitudes about further tourism development in a community-based tourism destination.     

Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.