Context-Dependence of Auditors' Interpretations of the SFAS No. 5 Probability Expressions*

Abstract. Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 5 requires accrual of contingent losses which are deemed probable. This disclosure criterion is intended to be applied uniformly across a variety of contexts. We performed an experiment which examined whether audit managers' interpretations of the SFAS No. 5 probability expressions are influenced by one contextual feature, event base rate. Counter to the intention of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), interpretations of the expression probable were positively associated with event base rate. Résumé. Le SFAS n^o 5 exige l'imputation à l'exercice des pertes éventuelles qui sont jugées «probables». La règle ainsi établie veut que ce critère de présentation d'information soit appliqué uniformément dans des contextes très divers. Les auteurs procèdent à une expérience dans le cadre de laquelle ils examinent si la façon dont les responsables de mission interprètent la gamme de probabilités, au sens du SFAS n^o 5, est influencée par une caractéristique contextuelle, la fréquence relative de l'événement. Contrairement au résultat visé par le FASB, les interprétations du terme «probable» sont en relation positive avec la fréquence relative de l'événement.     

Diagnosing Asset Pricing Models Using the Distribution of Asset Returns

This paper develops a set of diagnostic tests which can shed light on why a particular model is failing and indicate what steps might be taken to make the model consistent with asset returns. Theoretical bounds on the moments of a stochastic discount factor are derived as a function of the moments of observed asset returns. Particular attention is paid to restrictions on moments other than the variance. These bounds can also be used to measure the information about the distribution of the discount factor contained in the moments of various asset returns. As an application of this methodology, bounds on the discount factor are estimated using size-based portfolios, and the results are used to analyze the small firm effect. Empirical results indicate, for the period 1926–1975, that moments of the returns of small firms contain information about the discount factor that is not contained in the moments of the returns of large firms and/or a proxy of the aggregate wealth portfolio. However, this difference disappears when more recent data is included.     

Social Capital,Trust, and Firm Performance: The Value of Corporate Social Responsibility during the Financial Crisis

During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, firms with high social capital, as measured by corporate social responsibility (CSR) intensity, had stock returns that were four to seven percentage points higher than firms with low social capital. High‐CSR firms also experienced higher profitability, growth, and sales per employee relative to low‐CSR firms, and they raised more debt. This evidence suggests that the trust between a firm and both its stakeholders and investors, built through investments in social capital, pays off when the overall level of trust in corporations and markets suffers a negative shock.     

It's SHO Time! Short-Sale Price Tests and Market Quality

We examine the effects of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)-mandated temporary suspension of short-sale price tests for a set of Pilot securities. While short-selling activity increases both for NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed Pilot stocks, returns and volatility at the daily level are unaffected. NYSE-listed Pilot stocks experience more symmetric trading patterns and a slight increase in spreads and intraday volatility after the suspension while there is a smaller effect on market quality for Nasdaq-listed Pilot stocks. The results suggest that the effect of the price tests on market quality can largely be attributed to distortions in order flow created by the price tests themselves.     

Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns around the Clock

The U.S. dollar appreciates in the run-up to foreign exchange (FX) fixes and depreciates thereafter, tracing a W-shaped return pattern around the clock. Return reversals for the top nine traded currencies over a 21-year period are pervasive and highly statistically significant, and they imply daily swings of more than one billion U.S. dollars based on spot volumes. Using natural experiments, we document the existence of a published reference rate determines the timing of intraday return reversals. We present evidence consistent with an inventory risk explanation whereby FX dealers intermediate unconditional demand for U.S. dollars at the fixes.     

Hidden costs of consumption

Consumers often underestimate the costs resulting from their consumer decisions. This is especially the case when purchasing durable consumer goods, but also for recreational activities, for which e.g. athletic equipment is bought. A similar situation exists when pets are kept. This disregard for the costs of subsequent use connected with the purchase of household appliances is problematic for consumers. In a study on the usage life of consumer goods¹ in the household, it was recognized that many consumers do not pay attention to these subsequent costs. The decisive consumer problem was not the durability of consumer goods, nor their tendency to become defective, but the resulting costs of the purchase, the operating costs of household appliances. On one hand, the working expenses are not considered at the time of purchase and their effect is not included in the purchase decision. On the other, the operating costs vary greatly, depending on the chosen type and model of appliance and, of course, on the specific form of utilization. In this paper, the question of the durability of consumer goods is first discussed with the help of empirical work. Then the hidden resulting costs, i.e. operating costs or costs of usage of consumer goods, are described. The resulting costs of keeping pets are also discussed. In the final part, the question of objective help for the consumer making purchase decisions is discussed.     

Feeding the British: convergence and market efficiency in the nineteenth-century grain trade

This paper traces the evolution of the international market for wheat, from an emerging market structure after the repeal of the corn laws to a mature market characterized by efficient arbitrage after the introduction of the transatlantic telegraph and the growth of trade. Efficiency is documented using traditional price gap accounting as well as error correction modelling. Markets which traded directly with each other as well as markets which did not trade with each other were integrated. The traditional bilateral focus in market integration studies has been extended to a multivariate approach, which generates new insights into the pattern of diffusion of price shocks in the international economy. Shocks in the major importing nation, Britain, dominated in the emerging market phase, while shocks in the major exporting economy, the United States, dominated international price movements at the end of the nineteenth century.