Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?

A stylized fact of European unemployment dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. This has led to a major reconsideration of the natural rate paradigm. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Germany and France. When the moving natural rate model is tested against the alternative of a unit root process, the unit root hypothesis is resoundingly rejected.     

Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?

Inflation rates in a number of developed countries follow a common trend over the past five decades: inflation starts out low in the 1950s, rises for a time before peaking in the 1970s, and then falls back to initial levels. Interestingly the behaviour of trend inflation in India broadly exhibits such a pattern. This similarity in the behaviour suggests that any explanation of inflation ought to apply across countries. To this end we construct a reduced-form inflation model for India that encompasses various well-known policy mistake theories as special cases. The restriction imposed by each of these theories on the behaviour of inflation is tested empirically. Reduced-form estimates lend support to all these theories. Although the reason for the inflation bias differs from one theory to the other, the mechanism at the heart of these theories are in fact quite similar. They all lay responsibility for inflation with the nature of monetary institutions. We use these results to interpret India's inflation experience over the past five decades and discuss the implications for institutional reform.     

Hispanic coupon usage: The impact of strong and weak ethnic identification

The fragmentation of mass markets and its economic importance has dramatically increased the need to better target and understand ethnic markets. This article argues that the strength of ethnic identification, which measures the strength to which a person feels tied to the culture of origin, is a key variable in understanding the impact of ethnicity on responses to marketing mixes. The major hypothesis driving this study therefore states that, when the strength of ethnic identification is high, the ethnic consumer will respond to marketing the way their parents' culture does. This study analyzes Hispanic consumers and demonstrates that Weak Hispanic identifiers are quite different from Strong Hispanic identifiers in their coupon usage, and that Weak Hispanic identifiers are more like the dominant culture. Specifically, this study shows that cultural reasons may overshadow economic reasons in explaining coupon usage and brand loyalty.     

Do product reviews really reduce search costs?

The literature on online product reviews is based on the fundamental premise that reviews impact search costs and also affect consumers’ confidence in their purchase decisions. However, this proposition has not been proven in the literature. To this end, we conducted an experiment using an eye-tracking machine to measure the impact of online editorial and customer reviews on consumer’s information search costs and on decision confidence. Search costs in this study are defined in terms of time costs and cognitive effort costs. We find that when present, both editorial reviews and customer reviews separately reduce both search time and cognitive effort considerably, but not when present together. We also find that the presence of both types of reviews increases decision confidence considerably, but do not lower search costs. These results suggest that ecommerce firms can benefit from the presence of either or both editorial and customer reviews through either lower search costs, or higher decision confidence. We conclude with several managerial recommendations for ecommerce firms.     

An escalation of commitment perspective on allocation-of-effort decisions in professional selling

Salesforce compensation theory assumes that given proper design of the incentive structure, salespeople will rationally allocate effort to maximize returns to their firm and themselves. However, faced with large sunk investments over long selling cycles, salespeople continue to commit resources to opportunities with little or no chance of being won, to the exclusion of viable leads. This article theoretically explores and empirically tests this over-investment effect under four potentially moderating conditions using a large multinational corporation’s industrial salesforce. The findings from this field study indicate that escalation of commitment is more likely to occur in non-strategic accounts and accounts not involving channel partners. In addition, salespeople with lower ability demonstrate greater escalation of commitment. The study indicates that without targeted managerial intervention, salespeople will over-invest precious selling resources in unprofitable, unwinnable opportunities.     

The fluent online shopping experience

Consumers increasingly use various Internet-enabled devices for online shopping; thus, a critical topic for both research and practice is the visual characteristics of the information presented in this medium. This study builds on fluency theory within an environmental psychology framework. Specifically, this research examines how consumers' perceived fluency of the verbal online information affects their perceived cognitive effort and positive affect within a choice context. The experimental results show that (1) perceptual fluency affects both cognitive effort and positive affect experienced during online shopping and (2) cognitive effort and positive affect influence judgments about the perceived decision quality of the choice made. This research is notable in its simultaneous (as opposed to consecutive) examination of the relationship among the three dimensions of processing fluency (perceptual fluency, positive affect, and cognitive effort) and their impact on consumers' choice satisfaction with an online shopping task.     

Conserving biodiversity of community forests and rangelands of a hot arid region of India

Community forests/rangelands, called Orans and Gauchars in the western arid part of India, constitute a significant proportion of the total geographical area of the region. Given the economic importance of these areas from time immemorial, the local people took special care to protect and sustainably utilize these common property resources. However, these forests and rangelands have suffered severe degradation in the recent past. Rehabilitation of Orans and Gauchars needs proper planning and execution of a technically feasible package, tailored to suit their unique edaphic, climatic, vegetation, social and legal status. Keeping in view the vast potential of these areas to sustain large scale livestock farming for overall economic upliftment of the local population, there is an urgent need to rehabilitate these degraded areas in an efficient and cost-effective manner. Salient problems faced by these natural assets of western Rajasthan and strategies for their rehabilitation have been discussed in the paper.     

Remittance receipts and allocation: a study of three African countries

Remittances may influence household expenditures, poverty rates, development and investments in the receiving country. Using World Bank survey data from Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, the influence of remitters’ and recipients’ characteristics on remittance amounts and allocation is examined. Effects of the remitter–receiver characteristics on remittance amounts are generally similar between countries. Such similarities imply a potential similar effect of policies in these countries. Age, household income, frequency of communication, family relations with remitter and country the recipient resided in influence remittance allocation. Recipients in Ethiopia and Uganda are more likely to allocate remittance towards savings than those in Kenya.     

Comparing market areas using kernel density estimation

From a managers’ point of view it is useful to know whether or not a market area has changed over time, and whether two market areas are different. In this paper we propose, using the kernel density estimation method, to estimate the density of a market area and show how the estimated market area densities may be compared for differences using Bayesian cross-validated likelihood methods. The proposed methodology is highlighted using two applications. One application involves comparison of lunch and dinner markets of a restaurant and the other application involves identifying the optimal area for a direct mail program.     

PERFORMANCE OF MURPHY'S TEST FOR TWO OUTLIERS IN A LINEAR MODEL

Abstract. In JOSHI and LALITHA (1986) a test for two outliers in the same direction in a linear model is discussed. Here the performance of this statistic is studied. For this, the exact non–null density function of the random variables involved in defining the statistic is obtained. Then a measure of performance is defined and it is applied to the case of a random sample from a normal distribution, as in this case the above said statistic reduces to the well known Murphy's test statistic. These values are then compared with the power values obtained by HAWKINS (1978).