What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trade dynamics in Cape Town township informal foodservice – a qualitative and supply chain study

The township cash economy of fast food, takeaways, and prepared meals is collectively termed ‘informal foodservice’. An analysis of a five-township ～3800 microenterprise census, and qualitative supply chain investigation of 50 informal foodservice retailers and 75 consumers revealed a well-established although deeply informal trade predominated by women preparing takeaway foods and conducting street braai (BBQ). The business demonstrates high dependence on the immediate place of operations which includes local input suppliers and selling to a narrow pool of trade from immediate (walking scale) neighbourhoods. Supply chains are short, linked to formal agriculture and wholesale sectors. Informal foodservice is heavily utilised by local residents on a regular basis who spend up to R218 per week on products (potentially 30% of income) from these outlets. These enterprises make a substantial contribution towards satisfying local food demand whilst serving an important social protection and neighbourhood relationship function.     

Category characteristics' effects on brand extension attitudes: A research note

Prior studies on attitudes towards brand extensions focus mainly on the effects of the perceived fit between the brand extension and the extension category. This exploratory paper contributes by describing two studies of how the following four extension category characteristics affect consumers' attitudes towards brand extensions: (1) the awareness set size; (2) the perceived similarity among existing brands; (3) the perceived category familiarity; and (4) overall category attitudes. Results from two studies suggest that consumers evaluate brand extensions more favorably when the awareness set size is small or when their attitude towards the extension category is favorable. Consequently, brand managers must analyze the extension category carefully when developing brand extensions.     

On a class of loans with a systematic amortisation schedule

Abstract

In this paper we show that a single set of formulas will characterise a wide range of standard loans. This makes it possible to describe these loans in a compact manner and facilitates the design of computer programs calculating their characteristics. The characterisation includes the entire amortisation schedule before and after tax and the duration and convexity measures.     

The effect of integration policies on the time until regular employment of newly arrived immigrants: Evidence from Denmark

We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in effects of participation in active labour-market programmes. Post programme effects on the hazard rate to regular employment are significantly positive for wage subsidy programmes, but not for other types of programmes. For language course participants, improvement in language proficiency has significant and substantial positive effects on the hazard rate to employment.     

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?*

We develop a system that provides model‐based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out‐of‐sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast outperforms Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to outperform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.     

Noncompliance and the effects of the minimum wage on hours and welfare in competitive labor markets

This paper shows that increases in the minimum wage rate can have ambiguous effects on the working hours and welfare of employed workers in competitive labor markets. The reason is that employers may not comply with the minimum wage legislation and instead pay a lower subminimum wage rate. If workers are risk neutral, we prove that working hours and welfare are invariant to the minimum wage rate. If workers are risk averse and imprudent (which is the empirically likely case), then working hours decrease with the minimum wage rate, while their welfare may increase.     

Uniform and nonuniform staggering of wage contracts

This paper provides a model that can account for the almost uniform staggering of wage contracts in some countries as well as for the markedly nonuniform staggering in others. In the model, short and long contracts as well as long contracts concluded in different periods are strategic substitutes, which provide a powerful rationale for staggering. We show that for realistic parameter values, there is a continuum of possible equilibria with various degrees of staggering of long contracts. If the contracting cost is not too large, then the lowest possible degree of staggering decreases with the contracting cost and increases with monetary uncertainty.