Table of Contents Volume 29 2002

Volume Contents

Table of Contents Volume 29 2002     

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their position in relation to each other and to voter preferences and to help them predict the final outcome of the election. In this study we take advantage of the theoretical foundation on voter behavior from the political science literature and the recent methodological advances in choice modeling to develop a Nested Logit Factor Model of voter choice which we use to predict the final outcome of two stage elections and gain insights about the underlying political landscape. We apply the proposed model to data from the first stage and predict the final outcome of two stage elections based on the inferences made from the first stage results. We demonstrate how our proposed model can help politicians understand their competitive position immediately after the first round of actual voting and test its predictive accuracy in the run-off election across 11 different state governorship elections.     

Is the Patent System an Even Playing Field? The Effect of Patent Attorney Firms

The patent system underpins the business model of some of the fastest-growing companies. Used appropriately, it should support frontier technologies and nurture new firms. Used perniciously, it can stifle innovation and protect established technological behemoths. We analyze patent examination decisions at the American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese patent offices and find evidence that patent attorneys have a surprisingly significant role in the patent system. Our results suggest that some forces within the examination system maintain the uneven playing field by allocating monopoly rights to inventors with better access to influential attorneys, rather than leveling it by favoring inventors with better, nonobvious ideas. Attorney quality is most important, vis-à-vis invention quality, in less codified and more rapidly changing technology areas such as software and ICT.     

Wage inequality between and within groups: trade-induced or skill-bias technical change? Alternative age models for the UK

According to recent econometric studies, technical progress is the main source of the increasing skill premium in the UK and the US. However, it is not yet clear if technical progress is skill-bias or sector-bias and, most importantly, if the use of foreign technology has a role to play. By using alternative AGE models for the UK economy, I show that both trade-induced sector-bias technical change and skill-bias technical change can explain the stylised facts of the UK economy: tertiarisation; deindustrialisation; openness to foreign markets; increased skill premium; rise in wage inequality within the skilled; and unskilled labour groups. However, the model with sector-bias technical change due to trade performs better, because it can also explain two other important stylised facts: the decline of the wage rate of unskilled workers; and the large increase of imported capital goods.     

The relationship between HRM avenues of political influence and perceived organizational performance

This article explores the relationship between the human resource management function's access to avenues of political influence and perceived organizational performance. We examine responses from 441 Australian senior HRM managers who participated in an online survey of a national HRM professional association. Drawing from political influence theory, we develop a model and related hypotheses to investigate the impact of opportunities for the HRM function to manage and control the shared meaning of HRM on perceived organizational performance. Although there was no evidence of a moderating effect of avenues of HRM political influence, CEO support and organizational support for HRM predicted perceived organizational performance. HRM representation on the board of directors appears to serve a symbolic function only. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in response to the identified importance of CEO and organizational support. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Distribution-free test procedures in two-way layouts; a concept of rank-interaction

Summary  In this paper the concept of 'rank-interaction' is introduced and a distribution-free method for testing against the presence of 'rank-interaction' is suggested in the case of a two-way layout (classification) with m (> 1) observations per cell. Roughly speaking rank-interaction can be understood as the phenomenon at which the ranks of the levels of some relevant variable are different for different classes of the other factor. The exact null distribution of the test statistic has been computed in some cases. The asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis has been derived. A test suggested by J.V. B radley in his book 'Distribution-free Statistical Tests' [2] is discussed. In the opinion of the authors it is doubtful whether the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis, as given by B radley , is correct. The test of B radley was intended to be sensitive to the presence of interactions defined in the usual way and hence not only to 'rank-interaction'. The same applies to methods proposed by some other authors. We claim that situations exist where one should test against rank-interaction and not against the usual more general alternative.     

Corporate governance quality: Trends and real effects

This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution during the 1994–2003 period in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on growth and productivity of the economy and its corporate sector. Our investigation yields three main findings. First, corporate governance quality in most countries has overall improved, although in varying degrees and with a few notable exceptions. Second, the data exhibit cross-country convergence in corporate governance quality with countries that score poorly initially catching up with countries with high corporate governance scores. Third, the impact of improvements in corporate governance quality on traditional measures of real economic activity—GDP growth, productivity growth, and the ratio of investment to GDP—is positive, significant and quantitatively relevant, and the growth effect is particularly pronounced for industries that are most dependent on external finance.