Segmented trend modelling of the US GNP series

Structural changes in economic time series are modelled as piecewise linear trends. A statistical method is considered to estimate and select the number and location of trend-breakks simultaneously. The method is applied to the GNP series of the US.     

Personalization has a Price,Controllability is the Currency: Predictors for the Intention to use Personalized eGovernment Websites

Content personalization on government websites provides individuals with a personal selection of information. In this study, we determine the role of trust in a government organization, trust in the technology, and perceived controllability on the intention to use content personalization for eGovernment websites. A total of 1141 participants were presented with scenarios describing a nonpersonalized webpage and one of four approaches to online content personalization, followed by an online survey. Results were analyzed by means of structural equation modeling. Perceived controllability is the most important antecedent of the intention to use online content personalization for eGovernment; trust in the technology also has a considerable influence. Trust in the government organization plays a minor role. The adaptable approach to online content personalization has the highest likelihood of citizen acceptance. When designing personalized eGovernment information services, designers should instill a feeling of controllability over the coming about of tailored content and trust in the technology.     

全球热钱做多中国

中国经济去年增长速度高达10．6％．再加上人民币存在大幅升值空间的诱惑，使得中国市场对于海外资金的吸引力．正处于持续增长之中。不过在这良好势头的背后．一股股暗流资金对中国市场的作用．是好是坏，却值得高度重视与警惕。     

Ethics Problems and Problems with Ethics: Toward a Pro-Management Theory

The move towards having more teaching of business ethics comes in part from a tendency to view managers negatively, drawing on anti-management theories that are presently popular in business schools. This can lead to a misdiagnosis of the causes of contemporary business problems. Teaching business ethics can, however, be ineffectual and counter-productive. Education in ethical philosophy can lead managers to be indecisive, sceptical or to rationalize poor conduct. The ethics of academics become salient and lapses in them undercut their claims to authority. The philosophical viewpoint that stresses free choice runs contrary to the social science mission to reveal the causes that determine human behaviour and provide solutions to problems. Pro-management theory offers a more positive appreciation of managers, with its three components of structural functionalism, strategic functionalism and stewardship. Lex Donaldson is Professor of Management in Organizational Design in the Faculty of Business of the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. He has a PhD from the University of London. He is the author of seven books on organizational theory, organizational structure and management. In addition, he has written numerous articles and chapters. His articles have appeared in journals such as Academy of Management Journal, Academy of Management Learning and Education, Academy of Management Review, Administrative Science Quarterly, Journal of Management Studies, Organizational Dynamics, Organization Science and Organization Studies.     

WOODWARD, TECHNOLOGY, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE — A CRITIQUE OF THE UNIVERSAL GENERALIZATION

This paper critically reviews the recent controversy over the relationship between technology, organizational structure and performance which was stimulated by the work of Woodward. An overview of the discussion is offered and an original evaluation offered on the basis of the latest contributions. This involves a detailed critique of the contribution of Zwerman. The conclusion is that the original Woodward thesis, as stated in the set of propositions for which systematic evidence was presented, should now be viewed as having been disconfirmed by the subsequent research.     

2007年并购前景

对于今年的全球并购活动，想不满意都难。来自Dealogic的数据显示．2006年．全球并购交易总额有望达到3．87万亿美元，较2005年增长29％，较2000年的前一个创纪录水平也高出16％。     

Default options and training participation

This article analyzes whether defaults affect the choice for courses followed at work. In addition, we analyze whether the size of the default effect varies with employees’ personality and skill-deficiencies. We perform an experiment in which workers are hypothetically offered three courses which they can accept or exchange for other courses. Randomizing the default package of courses, we identify the default effect. Default courses are chosen approximately three times more often than other courses. They are chosen more often if people have skill-deficiencies in these courses, suggesting that people consider the default to be an advice. Women choose default courses more often than men. Women with less self-confidence and men with lower cognitive skills choose the default courses more often.     

Wage Effects of On‐the‐Job Training: A Meta‐Analysis

A meta‐analysis is used to study the average wage effects of on‐the‐job training. This study shows that the average reported wage effect of on‐the‐job training, corrected for publication bias, is 2.6 per cent per course. The analyses reveal a substantial heterogeneity between training courses, while wage effects reported in studies based on instrumental variables and panel estimators are substantially lower than estimates based on techniques that do not correct for selectivity issues. Appropriate methodology and the quality of the data turn out to be crucial to determine the wage returns.     

The applicability of the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia for patients with sub-acute neck pain: a qualitative study

The purpose of this study was to qualitatively evaluate patients understanding and interpretation of the wording used in test items of the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK). The TSK was developed to measure fear of movement in patients suffering from low back pain. The TSK is being increasingly used for other pain conditions. Patients with sub-acute neck pain experience problems while completing this questionnaire. The aim of this study was to elicit these problems. The study was conducted within the framework of a randomised controlled trial. The Three-Step Test Interview (TSTI) was used to collect data on the thoughts or considerations of respondents while completing the TSK. In the analysis, each transcribed interview was divided into three segments. The thoughts and considerations were then analysed and categorised per item. During the TSTI two problems were identified. One concerned the meaning of specific words used, like “dangerous” and “injury”. The other problem was that several implicit assumptions within some items make it difficult for respondents to answer these items. It was concluded that in the development and validation of questionnaires like the TSK, not only quantitative psychometric properties are important, but also qualitative research has an important contribution to enhance applicability.