Further investigation of the uncertain trend in US GDP

The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in US GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995 Ben-David, D and Papell, DH. 1995. The great wars, the great crash, and steady growth: some new evidence about an old stylized. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36: 453–75. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) found evidence in favour of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1991 Maddison, A. 1991. Dynamics Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long-Run Comparative View, Oxford: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar]). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000 Murray, CJ and Nelson, CR. 2000. The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46: 79–95. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) correctly criticized this finding arguing that the Maddision data are plagued with additive outliers (AO), which bias inference towards stationarity. Hence, they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time-span post-WWII sample. In this article we re-visit the Maddison data by employing a test that is robust against AO's. Our results suggest the US GDP can be modelled as trend stationary process     

Non-monotonic pricing kernel and an extended class of mixture of distributions for option pricing

We derive closed form European option pricing formulae under the general equilibrium framework for underlying assets that have an \(N\) -mixture of transformed normal distributions. The component distributions need not belong to the same class but must all be transformed normal. An important implication of our results is that the mixture of distributions is consistent with a “what appears to be abnormal” non-monotonic (asset specific) pricing kernel for the S&P 500 and that the representative agent has a “logical” monotonic decreasing marginal utility. We show that a mixture of two lognormal distributions is sufficient to produce this result and also implied volatility smiles of a wide variety of shapes.     

Inflation targeting in Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to examine the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework as it is applied in the case of Brazil since its adoption in June 1999. For this purpose we first summarize the macroeconometric model utilized by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) in its pursuit of the IT framework. While the focus of this paper is on Brazil, we also examine the experience of other countries with IT (in particular, the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China), both for comparative purposes and for evidence of the extent of success of this ‘new’ economic policy pursued by other IT countries. In addition, we compare the experience of Brazil with IT and with that of non‐IT countries. In the context of non‐IT countries, we ask the question of whether it makes a difference in the fight against inflation whether a country has adopted IT or not. Finally, we examine some features of the Brazilian experience with IT regime.     

Trends of the human resources management model in Brazilian companies: a forecast according to opinion leaders from the area

This paper is the result of research carried out to identify trends of the human resources management model in Brazilian organizations. In order to do this, we employed a research methodology known as Delphi, which consists of gradually adjusting the perceptions of specialists. Respondents were selected using criteria that characterized them as opinion leaders in human resource management.

Having consulted more than 160 people, we observed that themes such as the management of competences, corporate education and encouragement for organizational learning will be gradually assimilated by companies. One of our main conclusions is that the change process in human resources has ceased to be reactive. Data relating to changes that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s showed that the function concentrated on internal restructuring, on reducing the number of specialist employees, on encouraging the outsourcing of operational processes and on establishing a new model for looking after in-house customers.     

Adolph Wagner’s economic thought in Brazil: money and public finance in the turn of the 20th century

This paper addresses the dissemination of German economist Adolph Wagner’s ideas in Brazil. It shows that his monetary thinking, inspired by Thomas Tooke and the Banking School, as well as his ideas on public finance, particularly the law of increasing state spending, were assimilated by two Brazilian economic thinkers: Rui Barbosa and Vieira Souto. The way these policymakers incorporated Wagner’s ideas into their texts and the arguments with which they chose to engage show the kind of economic discourse they were shaping in Brazil. This analysis reveals the different functions that the original ideas could perform in another national context.     

Implied volatility sentiment: a tale of two tails

We propose a sentiment measure jointly derived from out-of-the-money index puts and single stock calls: implied volatility (IV-) sentiment. In contrast to implied correlations, our measure uses information from the tails of the risk-neutral densities from these two markets rather than across their entire moneyness structures. We find that IV-sentiment measure adds value over and above traditional factors in predicting the equity risk premium out-of-sample. Forecasting results are superior when constrained ensemble models are used vis-à-vis unregularized machine learning techniques. In a mean-reversion strategy, our IV-sentiment measure delivers economically significant results, with limited exposure to a set of cross-sectional equity factors, including Fama and French's five factors, the momentum factor and the low-volatility factor, and seems valuable in preventing momentum crashes. Our novel measure reflects overweight of tail events, which we interpret as a behavioral bias. However, we cannot rule out a risk-compensation rationale.     

Can sustainable investments outperform traditional benchmarks? Evidence from global stock markets

To contribute to overcoming global sustainability challenges, investors have been increasingly interested in making sustainable investments and incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria into their portfolio selection decisions and managerial activities. However, these investors and other agents interested in sustainable investment need updated and robust information to support their decision making. We analyzed the performance of several Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSIs) and compared them with their respective market benchmarks from 2013 to 2018. The indices comprise the following regions and countries: the world, the Asia‐Pacific, Europe, emerging markets and the US. The analysis was conducted based on both classic and modern portfolio metrics. The results suggest that sustainable investment performance is still heterogeneous worldwide, but there is a promising opportunity for investors to obtain superior risk‐adjusted returns in certain regions while incorporating sustainable investment practices. The findings are of utmost importance to financial market practitioners, business managers, academics and other stakeholders interested in promoting investments, corporate practices and scientific knowledge to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

The Impact of Distance (External) and Organizational Factors (Internal) on the Knowledge Chain of Multinational Corporations: South Africa as a Host Country

The geographic dispersion of multinational corporations (MNCs) implies that while it gives them access to new and different knowledge from diverse localities, it also adds to the costs and complexities of managing that knowledge and its effective dispersal across geographies. The purpose of this article is to examine how knowledge is transferred within MNCs and provide a framework for this process, particularly focusing on the role that distance (external) and organizational (internal) factors plays therein. A qualitative study is utilized, focusing on two technology companies from different cultural home countries and the technology transfer process with their South African subsidiaries. We find that the standardization of knowledge impacts the creation and diffusion of knowledge; expatriates impact on the creation, diffusion, and adoption; and, finally, relevance and localization impact on the adoption and utilization of knowledge. We present a conceptual framework around trust and rationalization as regards transferring knowledge within MNCs and find some evidence of the impact of distance, particularly cultural, on the methods employed in this transfer. The article illustrates the practical ways in which MNCs organize their internal resources and overcome various dimensions of distance in ensuring knowledge transfers. By choosing companies from such divergent home countries (one industrialized and one newly industrialized, with very different cultural settings) and examining their knowledge transfers with their South African subsidiaries, we are able to unpack various dimensions of distance and how organizational mechanisms affect this process. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Profitability and social impacts of reduced impact logging in the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil — A case study

Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the Tapajós National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajós. This paper evaluates the Project's profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003, was coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United Kingdom's Department of International Development (DFID) working through and approved by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuária Ltda, a private logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.