Efficiency wages, trade unions, and employment

This paper integrates union bargaining into an efficiency modelwith imperfect monitoring of worker performance. The model isused to examine the effects of an increase in the benefit replacementratio on wages, employment, and effort. It is shown that, incontrast to both standard shirking and trade union models, theseeffects are all ambiguous. In particular, if unions have somebargaining strength, a higher replacement ratio may reduce wagesand increase employment Whenever employment is increased thelevel of effort falls.     

Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU

We present the simulations of fiscal adjustment policies to the Maastricht criteria in the European economies based on a rational-expectations model of the G7 economies. We find that an effort to achieve the fiscal criteria inflicts pronounced recessions on the European economies. Furthermore, the fiscal and the inflation criteria lack consistency. A return to fixed exchange rates in Europe worsens the results of fiscal retrenchment in Europe. All of this implies that a hard interpretation of the criteria is neither a desirable nor a credible strategy for EMU.CEPR     

Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications

We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short‐run forecast to the expected loss of a long‐run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or multivariate information sets, and covariance stationary or difference stationary processes. We propose a simple estimator, and we suggest resampling methods for inference. We then provide several macroeconomic applications. First, we illustrate the implementation of predictability measures based on fitted parametric models for several US macroeconomic time series. Second, we analyze the internal propagation mechanism of a standard dynamic macroeconomic model by comparing the predictability of model inputs and model outputs. Third, we use predictability as a metric for assessing the similarity of data simulated from the model and actual data. Finally, we outline several non‐parametric extensions of our approach. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.