Long memory at the long run and at the cyclical frequencies: modelling real wages in England, 1260–1994

This paper examines historical data on daily real wages in England for the time period 1260–1994 by means of new statistical techniques suitable for modelling long memory both at the long run and the cyclical frequencies. Specifically, it uses a procedure due to Robinson ((1994) Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses. J Am Stat Assoc 89:1420–1437) which is based, for the cyclical component, on Gegenbauer processes. We test for the presence of unit (and fractional) roots at both the zero and the cyclical frequencies, and find that the root at the zero frequency plays a much more important role than the cyclical one, though the latter frequency also has a component of long memory behaviour. It also appears that the trending (zero frequency) component is nonstationary while the cyclical one is stationary, with shocks having permanent effects on the former, but transitory effects on the latter. Similar conclusions are reached when allowing for a break in 1875 (the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution).

Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil's plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO₂ emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon.     

Does consideration matter to China’s split share structure reform?

We investigate the share market response to China’s split share structure reform and find average negative daily return around the government announcement on 29 April 2005. However, there is a turnaround at individual companies’ decision to implement the reform where we find positive and significant average daily return, contingent on the type of consideration. We attribute this change in market sentiment to the company’s announcement that the reform will involve the payment of consideration to holders of tradable A‐shares. Our results also show that holders of tradable A‐shares earn significant abnormal daily returns when companies propose to pay in cash or warrants or combine any of these payment methods with bonus shares.     

Referrals in search markets

This paper compares the equilibrium outcomes in search markets with and without referrals. Although it seems clear that consumers would benefit from referrals, it is not at all clear whether firms would unilaterally provide information about competing offers since such information could encourage consumers to purchase the product elsewhere. In a model of a horizontally differentiated product market with sequential consumer search, we show that valuable referrals can arise in the equilibrium: a firm will give referrals to consumers whose ideal product is sufficiently far away from the firm's offering. We allow firms to price-discriminate among consumers, and consumers to misrepresent their tastes. We found that the equilibrium profits tend to be higher in markets with referrals than in markets without. Consumers tend to be better off in the presence of referrals when search costs are not too low, and under a certain parameter range, referrals lead to a Pareto improvement.     

Cross-validation of segments of credit card holders

This work presents the segmentation of credit cards holders of a Portuguese financial institution. It is focused on the evaluation of the obtained solution via cross-validation. The proposed approach specifically handles a large data set with mixed (numerical and categorical) variables. It provides the evaluation of the internal stability of the segmentation solution and helps in characterizing the segments. Furthermore, it provides classification rules for new credit card holders. Finally, this work presents the credit card holders' segment profiles, helping to support ongoing and future strategic decisions.     

Advantages of the social stamp for the biodiesel producer companies： The BSBIOS and OLEOPLAN cases

Biofuel has become an alternative source of energy in response to the change of the world＇s energy matrix. In Brazil, biodiesel has a highlighted status because it is obtained from different raw materials including animal or vegetable origins. In this context, trying to stimulate the social inclusion and the regional development, the federal government has been allowing some tax benefits through the Social Fuel Stamp （SCS） to the producer companies of biodiesel, since the purchasing of the raw material is from small farmers. Taking this into account, this article aims at the identification of the advantages perceived between the BSBIOS and the OLEOPLAN-two producer companies of biodiesel, located, respectively, in Rio Grande do Sul, in relation to the use of the social fuel stamp. In this case study, classified as a qualitative and of exploratory style, the data collection was done through the observation of informal conversations, visits in the companies named above, through interviews made with a pre-determined guide that allowed the application of the subject analysis technical. The analysis of the results is organized through the profile of these companies and by the identification of the advantages provided by the social fuel stamp. The results of this study show that the companies consider the social fuel stamp as fundamental and that it provides four advantages： the access to better financial conditions through the BNDES and other financial institutions; the right to compete in auctions for the biodiesel purchasing by the Petroleum National Agency, Natural Gas and Biofuel （ANP）; the exemption of taxes; and, the use of the logo of the stamp showing the social role of the company that does not represent a differentiated factor concerning the marketing strategy.     

Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the US and UK unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than zero in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level.     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area

This article estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates their linkages in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has stabilised. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, consistently with the idea that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate.     

User-generated content in the era of digital well-being: A netnographic analysis in a healthcare marketing context

The disruptive strength of digital technologies in healthcare has led to valuable changes in the search for information and the application of these technologies. The introduction of these technologies has altered, sometimes even inverting, the doctor–patient relationship. User-generated content on social media and online communities represents a form of disruptive cooperation that has huge potential benefits for the future growth of society. Using netnographic analysis of smart patients and data from an online survey of Italian oncologists and health professionals, this paper shows the impact of user-generated content on the pursuit of personal well-being. The linkages between new forms of knowledge, business, and innovation are highlighted. Based on an analysis of the emerging concept of systems medicine, this paper focuses on the dimension of participation. A data-driven approach is adopted, and the data, information, knowledge, and wisdom framework is used to explain how people employ user-generated content in their pursuit of well-being. Managerial perspectives and suggestions for future research developments are discussed.