Efficiency evaluation of Greek equity funds

This study assesses the relative performance of Greek equity funds employing a non-parametric method, namely Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Specifically, we evaluate the funds’ total productivity change using the DEA-based Malmquist Index. Our results reveal significant losses in funds’ productivity for the period of 2003–2009, which calls for the attention of domestic policy makers and market regulators. Significant implications for the investors’ fund selection process arise from our analysis since we are able to identify potential sources of operational inefficiencies. Employing a panel logit model we document a significant negative relationship between the probability of being efficient and funds’ size, a finding which may be related to the microstructure of the domestic stock market. Furthermore, we provide evidence against the notion of funds’ mean-variance efficiency.     

Capacity Constraints and Hedge Fund Strategy Returns

Hedge funds have generated significant absolute returns (alpha) in the decade between 1995 and 2004. However, the level of alpha has declined substantially over this period. We investigate whether capacity constraints at the level of hedge fund strategies have been responsible for this decline. For four out of eight hedge fund strategies, capital inflows have statistically preceded negative movements in alpha, consistent with this hypothesis. We also find evidence that hedge fund fees have increased over the same period. Our results provide support for the Berk and Green (2004) rational model of active portfolio management.     

Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the use of tick-by-tick data for intraday market risk measurement. We propose a method to compute an Intraday Value at Risk based on irregularly spaced high-frequency data and an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. A log-ACD–ARMA–EGARCH model is used to specify the joint density of the marked point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for three stocks actively traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Compared to traditional techniques applied to intraday data, our methodology has two main advantages. First, our risk measure has a higher informational content as it takes into account all observations. On the total risk measure, our method allows for distinguishing the effect of random trade durations from the effect of random returns, and for analyzing the interaction between these factors. Thus, we find that the information contained in the time between transactions is relevant to risk analysis, which is consistent with predictions from asymmetric-information models in the market microstructure literature. Second, once the model has been estimated, the IVaR can be computed by any trader for any time horizon based on the same information and with no need of sampling the data and estimating the model again when the horizon changes. Backtesting results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active in the market.     

Fiscal and monetary policy co-ordination: A differential game approach

In this paper the interaction between the Treasury and the central bank is examined in the case of both cooperative and non-cooperative behaviour. Differential games are used in the framework of a continuous-time econometric model of the Italian economy. The Nash and the Stackelberg non-cooperative equilibrium solutions are computed, and the case for cooperation is analysed by considering the Nash and the Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining models. It is shown that, in the Italian case, the government has a stronger bargaining position than the central bank. A comparison is then made between the different solutions to show that the drawbacks that emerge from non-cooperation are not simply those depending on the players' payoffs. Other features are in fact considered which constitute a further argument for policy co-ordination.