MODELLING A REGIME‐SHIFTING BEVERIDGE CURVE

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship within a Markov regime‐switching environment in which the probabilities of curve‐shifting are determined endogenously by shift factors. Shift factors include structural factors such as labour market participation and net migration, while cyclical variables include GDP growth, the real rate of interest, and labour productivity. This approach enables us to estimate regime‐specific parameters and to assess the role played by these factors in influencing the transition probabilities of switching between regimes. Using New Zealand data, we show that increases in the participation rate have shifted the Beveridge curve inward, while increases in net migration have shifted the curve outward.     

Erratic strategic decisions: when and why managers are inconsistent in strategic decision making

While decision makers in organizations frequently make good decisions rooted in stable and consistent preferences, such consistency in outcomes is not always the case. In this study, we adopt a psychological perspective of judgment to investigate managers' erratic strategic decisions, which we define as a manager's inconsistent judgments that can shape the direction of the firm. In a study of 2,048 decisions made by 64 CEOs of technology firms, we examine how both metacognitive experience and perceptions of the external environment (hostility and dynamism) could affect the extent to which managers make erratic strategic decisions. The results indicate that managers with greater metacognitive experience make less erratic strategic decisions. The results also indicate that in hostile environments managers make more erratic strategic decisions. But contrary to our expectations, in dynamic environments managers make less erratic strategic decisions. Similarly, hostility and dynamism interact in their effect on erratic strategic decisions in that the positive relationship between environmental hostility and erratic strategic decisions will be less positive for managers experiencing high environmental dynamism than those experiencing low environmental dynamism. These results have important implications for strategic decision‐making research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Achievements and gaps in tef productivity improvement practices in the marginal areas of Northern Ethiopia: implications for future research directions

Tef is the most important crop in Ethiopia and is well-adapted to growing environments, but grain yields are low. The government is therefore promoting the adoption of improved varieties, inorganic fertilizers and new planting techniques. This study gathered information on the use of new agronomic practices and barriers to their adoption through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to 60 farmers or respondents from each of 4 districts of Tigray region in northern Ethiopia viz Laelay-Maichew, Medebay-Zana, Ahferom and Alamata. Data were coded and analysed using SPSS software. Except for animal feed and crop rotation, there were significant differences between districts in the relative importance of several criteria for different uses. Improved varieties were used by the majority of respondents in all districts and fertilizers in all except Alamata where severe moisture stress dictated the choice of variety and reduced fertilizer application. Weed control was mainly by hand except in Alamata where chemical control was common because of the predominance of broad-leaved weeds. Transplanting maximized the yield of tef, but a cost–benefit analysis showed that row sowing was more profitable. The study concluded that new varieties better adapted to the likelihood of reduced rainfall and that respond efficiently to fertilizer inputs need to be developed. Until suitable technologies are available, high labour costs would in part dictate some agronomic practices, even if this led to lower yields.