Career interrupted? The case of the self-directed expatriate

This paper examines the role of individual agency and the perceived value of international experience for self-directed expatriation as an increasingly common career choice. Drawing on a study of British expatriate academics, it reports that themes relating to both agency and structure come into play. Although individual desire for adventure, life change and family concerns were key incentives to expatriate, participants believed that their subsequent international experience would provide a distinct advantage in the academic marketplace. The internationalization of higher education was a key theme in these perceptions. The paper also presents practical recommendations regarding expatriate academics and other self-directed expatriates.     

Doing business in South Africa

This survey of the South African business environment outlines the major transformations the country has experienced since 1994. The economy has been restructured, which enhanced fiscal and monetary discipline as well as domestic and global competitiveness. The general business climate has been improved, but continued progress requires (1) prioritization of social issues such as HIV/AIDS, employment, and crime and (2) accelerated privatization, market reforms, and clarity about black economic empowerment. Such changes may stimulate inflation‐rate reduction, foreign exchange stability, and an increase in foreign direct investment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Trade Union Approaches towards the ICE Regulations: Defensive Realism or Missed Opportunity?

Reflecting debates about whether statutory workforce‐wide consultation arrangements are likely to undermine or underpin trade union representation, unions' approaches towards the UK's Information and Consultation of Employees Regulations 2004 have been ambivalent and their engagement with the legislation limited. Evidence from longitudinal case studies in 25 organizations suggests that the introduction of information and consultation bodies did not have the effect of marginalizing trade union representation and collective bargaining, and in some cases reinforced unions' standing within the organization. The article highlights the implications for union strategies and legislative reform, and suggests a research agenda.     

Going Off Script: How Managers Make Sense of the Ending of Their Careers

The extant retirement literature primarily focuses on factors that influence the decision to retire and the generic retirement decision‐making process. While these approaches have extended our understanding of retirement decision‐making, we propose a sensemaking perspective that orients our attention towards the subjective meanings people attach to the factors that trigger the retirement decision, rather than simply the factors themselves. Accordingly, we see the retirement decision‐making process as bounded by situational constraints and rooted in identity work. Based on interviews with 48 retired Canadian executives and managers, we use thematic narrative analysis to identify six types of end‐of‐career narratives. Drawing on these narratives, we present a model of identity work that distinguishes between retirement decision‐making factors that are perceived as identity opportunities and those that are perceived as identity threats. Our findings contribute to scholarly understanding of subjective meanings and identity considerations in the process of ending one's career.     

Cost of capital and earnings transparency

We provide evidence that firms with more transparent earnings enjoy a lower cost of capital. We base our earnings transparency measure on the extent to which earnings and change in earnings covary contemporaneously with returns. We find a significant negative relation between our transparency measure and subsequent excess and portfolio mean returns, and expected cost of capital, even after controlling for previously documented determinants of cost of capital.     

Developing Mortality Improvement Formulas

Abstract

Longevity improvements have contributed to widespread underfunding of pension plans and losses in insured annuity portfolios. Insurers might reasonably expect some upside from the effect of lower mortality on their life business. Although mortality improvement scales, such as the Society of Actuaries Scale AA, are widely employed in pension and annuity valuation, the derivation of these scales appears heuristic, leading to problems in deriving meaningful measures of uncertainty. We explore the evidence on mortality trends for the Canadian life insurance companies, data, using stochastic models. We use the more credible population data to benchmark the insured lives data. Finally, we derive a practical, model-based formula for actuaries to incorporate mortality improvement and the associated uncertainty into their calculations.     

Measuring Basis Risk in Longevity Hedges

Abstract

In examining basis risk in index longevity hedges, it is important not to ignore the dependence between the population underlying the hedging instrument and the population being hedged. We consider four extensions to the Lee-Carter model that incorporate such dependence: Both populations are jointly driven by the same single time-varying index, the two populations are cointegrated, the populations depend on a common age factor, and there is an augmented common factor model in which a population-specific time-varying index is added to the common factor model with the property that it will tend toward a certain constant level over time. Using data from the female populations of Canada and the United States, we show the augmented common factor model is preferred in terms of both goodness-of-fit and ex post forecasting performance. This model is then used to quantify the basis risk in a longevity hedge of 65-year old Canadian females structured using a portfolio of q-forward contracts predicated on U.S. female population mortality. The hedge effectiveness is estimated at 56% on the basis of longevity value-at-risk and 81.61% on the basis of longevity risk reduction.     

Markovian Approaches to Joint-Life Mortality

Abstract

Many insurance products provide benefits that are contingent on the combined survival status of two lives. To value such benefits accurately, we require a statistical model for the impact of the survivorship of one life on another. In this paper we first set up two models, one Markov and one semi-Markov, to model the dependence between the lifetimes of a husband and wife. From the models we can measure the extent of three types of dependence: (1) the instantaneous dependence due to a catastrophic event that affect both lives, (2) the short-term impact of spousal death, and (3) the long-term association between lifetimes. Then we apply the models to a set of jointlife and last-survivor annuity data from a large Canadian insurance company. Given the fitted models, we study the impact of dependence on annuity values and examine the potential inaccuracy in pricing if we assume lifetimes are independent. Finally, we compare our Markovian models with two copula models considered in previous research on modeling joint-life mortality.     

Loss Reserves and the Employment Status of the Appointed Actuary

Abstract

Property/casualty (P/C) insurers are required to establish loss reserves for unpaid losses at the time that the loss has occurred or is reasonably expected to have occurred. We examine factors that may impact the accurate setting of loss reserves. These include the level of rate regulation faced by the insurer and the incentives to underestimate or overestimate reserves to improve financial ratios or improve solvency scores, to reduce earnings, to defer taxes, or to smooth earnings volatility in order to meet shareholder expectations. The employment status of the Appointed Actuary, that is, whether the Appointed Actuary is an employee of the firm or a consultant, may also impact reserve accuracy. Using a variety of regression models with data from 1995 to 2010, we examine the impact of these factors on the accuracy of reserves posted by Canadian P/C insurers. Our results provide no evidence of systematic differences in the magnitude or direction of loss reserve errors between insurers that use company actuaries versus those that use consultant actuaries. However, we find that for both consultant and company actuaries positive reserve errors are associated with increases in global stock market returns and decreases in unanticipated inflation. The insurance market cycle impacts reserve errors for company actuaries and not consultant actuaries. As well, our results indicate that as the proportion of short-tailed business increases in a company, consultant actuaries are more likely to over-reserve. Similar to many previous studies using U.S. data, we do not find strong evidence regarding insurers’ incentives to deliberately overstate or understate reserves: Loss reserves are relatively unbiased estimates of the true losses paid. Thus these findings should be welcome news to the actuarial profession in Canada and to the prudential regulator: The Appointed Actuary, regardless of employment status, provides objective and unbiased estimates of insurers’ largest liability.