Conservatism correction for the market-to-book ratio and Tobin’s q

We decompose the market-to-book ratio into two additive components: a conservatism correction factor and a future-to-book ratio. The conservatism correction factor exceeds the benchmark value of one whenever the accounting for past transactions has been subject to an (unconditional) conservatism bias. The observed history of a firm’s past investments allows us to calculate the magnitude of its conservatism correction factor, resulting in an average value that is about two-thirds of the overall market-to-book ratio. We demonstrate that our measure of Tobin’s q, obtained as the market-to-book ratio divided by the conservatism correction factor, has greater explanatory power in predicting future investments than the market-to-book ratio by itself. Our model analysis derives a number of structural properties of the conservatism correction factor, including its sensitivity to growth in past investments, the percentage of investments in intangibles, and the firm’s cost of capital. We provide empirical support for these hypothesized structural properties.     

Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade

We use a computable general equilibrium model in an explanation of the recent rapid growth in Australia's trade, particularly intra-industry trade. Relative to previous studies of trade growth based on multiple regression analysis, our approach allows us to: (i) work at a detailed industry level; (ii) use primary variables to represent changes in technology and preferences rather than proxies; and (iii) use a framework based on explicit microeconomic foundations. We find that most of the growth in Australia's trade relative to GDP is explained by changes in technology and preferences.     

The Government/Democrats' package of changes in indirect taxes

Australia is faced with a comprehensive package of changes to its indirect tax system, including the introduction of a GST. The Government's only quantitative analysis in formulating the package employed PRISMOD, an archaic input-output price model. PRISMOD sheds dim light on a very limited range of policy-relevant variables. This article explains how PRISMOD works; this is of continuing relevance because PRISMOD results are a benchmark in negotiations concerning the price effects of the tax package. Then an assessment of the package is made using MONASH, a comprehensive dynamic general equilibrium model. Overall, the conclusions are negative: the package is welfare-reducing and unnecessary.     

You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity

Simulations with dynamic, single country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.     

Body scanning as a new anthropometric measurement tool for health‐risk assessment

The study explored the accuracy of body measurements gathered from trained observers employing a tape measure compared with those generated by the 3D body scanner. Tape measurements of body circumferences are routinely used for assessing future risk to health, as increased circumference of the waist vs. hip is associated with greater chronic disease rates later in life. Findings indicated that significant differences existed between circumference measurements calculated by the body scanner and those which were gathered from a tape measure. This research indicates that utilization of the body scanner as an anthropometric measurement tool for the assessment of health risk has tremendous benefits.     

Bubbles: Some Perspectives (and Loose Talk) from History

Bubbles are a topic of great importance and great controversy.This paper discusses alternative perspectives on the economicmeaning and origin of bubbles. Drawing on historical approachesto bubbles, this article sets out a taxonomy of approaches usedto explain the nature of bubbles. The paper also considers issuesconnected with the scientific thinking surrounding bubbles.     

Presidential Address: Liquidity and Price Discovery

This paper examines the implications of market microstructure for asset pricing. I argue that asset pricing ignores the central fact that asset prices evolve in markets. Markets provide liquidity and price discovery, and I argue that asset pricing models need to be recast in broader terms to incorporate the transactions costs of liquidity and the risks of price discovery. I argue that symmetric information‐based asset pricing models do not work because they assume that the underlying problems of liquidity and price discovery have been solved. I develop an asymmetric information asset pricing model that incorporates these effects.     

A simultaneous probit model of crime and employment for black and white teenage males

This study examines the relationships between the employability and criminality of white and black male teenagers. A disequilibrium model of employment and crime is formulated and estimated as a simultaneous probit equation system. Our results show that black teenagers who are employed engage in fewer criminal activities. Thus, it appears that blacks view employment and crime as alternative income-generating activities. On the other hand, the criminal behavior of white male teenagers is unaffected by their employment status. The evidence that we provide indicates that whites tend to use employment as a cover for crime or to moonlight in crime. The differences in the behaviors of whites and blacks can be explained, in part, by different legitimate opportunity structures for whites and blacks. One of the more important policy implications is that job opportunities targeted to high risk, black teenage populations will have the additional beneficial effect of reducing crime rates.     

Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application

We describe a simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for Australia's MONASH model but the approach applies to a wide range of CGE models. The method is automated in the RunMONASH Windows software, putting CGE modelling under rational expectations within the reach of non-specialist modellers. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results under rational expectations are compared with results under static expectations. The application and supporting software can be downloaded. Results from the application are interpreted in terms of elementary economic mechanisms.