Land Allocation between Food and Energy

Many countries are promoting biofuels as a substitute for scarce oil. This paper develops a dynamic model of land allocation between food and energy and shows how the model can be calibrated using standard optimization techniques. Some possible implications of the trade-offs between food and energy are discussed. Specifically, we show that the effect of mandates is mainly felt through increased land conversion, which increases indirect carbon emissions Crude oil prices do not decrease significantly because of leakages.     

The reception of Marx in France: La Revue Socialiste (1885–1914)

Abstract

The aim of the present article is to provide context to reading, interpreting and using Marx from 1885 to 1914 in La Revue Socialiste, the main journal of socialist movements in France. The article first states some quantitative elements on the absolute and relative importance of the references to Marx and the words “Marxism” and “Marxist” in the journal. The central editorial line of the review – to restore a French descent to socialism and to try to found a socialism not exclusively “Marxist” – is then analysed. This line is maintained over time, with variations, in different national and international contexts. Finally, three key economic themes defining the relation to Marx in the journal are presented. Based on this quantitative and qualitative analysis, a brief conclusion stresses some of the most specific aspects of the socialist reception of Marx in France before WWI.     

Are Women Less Capable in Managing Crops? Insights from Cotton Production in Northern China

Women’s performance in agriculture matters, as women are becoming increasingly involved in agricultural production worldwide. Many studies have demonstrated that women-led farms perform less well as a result of less access to production factors, but no studies focus on how women perform without this constraint. This study fills that gap by analyzing the case of cotton cropping, which is known for its high labor requirements, high production inputs, and need for technical knowledge. Using primary data collected in northern China over the 2006–9 period, it uses the concept of “Daily Crop Management” (DCM) and identifies DCM farms managed by women whose husbands were engaged in off-farm activities on a long-term basis. The study finds that one-third of all farms were female-DCM farms, that these were smaller than those of their male counterparts but had equal access to production factors and achieved equal if not better technical and economic performances.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Ruin probabilities and optimal capital allocation for heterogeneous life annuity portfolios

A large part of the actuarial literature is devoted to the derivation of ruin probabilities in various non-life insurance risk models. On the contrary, very few papers deal with ruin probabilities for life insurance portfolios. The difficulties arise from the dependence and non-stationarity of the annual payments made by the insurance company. This paper shows that the ruin probability in case of life annuity portfolios can be computed from algorithms derived by De Pril (1989) and Dhaene & Vandebroek (1995). Approximations for ruin probabilities are discussed. The present article complements the works of Frostig et al. (2003) who considered whole life, endowment, and temporary assurances, and of Denuit & Frostig (2008) who considered homogeneous life annuities portfolios. Here, heterogeneous portfolios (with respect to age and/or face amounts) are studied. Particular attention is paid to the capital allocation problem. The total amount of reserve is shared among the risk classes in order to minimize the ruin probability. It is then fair to charge a higher margin to the risk classes requiring more capital.     

Labour productivity and rice production in Bangladesh: a stochastic frontier approach

During the NCAA basketball tournaments from 2002 to 2005, men's games produced 27% more upsets than women's games. To test whether these unpredictable results were due to gender differences, we conduct logit analysis to explain upsets by gender and other potentially significant variables, including differences in competing teams’: (i) RPI scores, (ii) percentage of freshmen, (iii) percentage of seniors, (iv) top scorer's total points and, (v) top three scorers’ total points. These analyses suggest that gender plays a significant role in explaining predictability.