Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure,SOX, and Other Analyst Regulations Reduce Security Mispricing?

Between 2000 and 2003 a series of disclosure and analyst regulations curbing abusive financial reporting and analyst behavior were enacted to strengthen the information environment of U.S. capital markets. We investigate whether these regulations reduced security mispricing and increased stock market efficiency. After the regulations, we find a significant reduction in short‐term stock price continuation following analyst forecast revisions and earnings announcements. The effect was more pronounced among higher information uncertainty firms, where we expect security valuation to be most sensitive to regulation. Analyst forecast accuracy also improved in these firms, consistent with reduced mispricing being due to an improved corporate information environment following the regulations. Our findings are robust to controls for time trends, trading activity, the financial crisis, analyst coverage, delistings, and changes in information uncertainty proxies. We find no concurrent effect among European firms and a regression discontinuity design supports our identification of a regulatory effect.     

习近平关于社区治理重要论述的理论定位与实践向度

习近平关于社区治理的一系列重要论述是改革开放以来我国社区建设实践的理论升华,是国家治理视域下基层社会治理与社会建设的理论总结,是"以人民为中心"导向下"民生为本"的社区治理范式创新,为新时代社区治理提供了理论引领与行动指南。习近平关于社区治理的重要论述包含:坚持党建引领的治理原则,激发共建共治共享的内生动力,夯实群众性自治制度的治理基础,协同自治、德治与法治的治理策略等多维实践向度。习近平总书记对社区疫情风险治理做出的重要指示进一步丰富和发展了城乡社区治理的理论与实践。     

Land Value: Seven Major Questions in the Analysis of Urban Land Values

A review of the literature on land and its value reveals seven sources of ambiguity: 1) a precise definition of the type of land under investigation is frequently absent, 2) the temporal, and 3) the spatial aspects of the land value attributes might be inconsistently specified, 4) the relevance of the valuation methods used is often overlooked, 5) the separate land value is a mere by‐product of the total property value as a rule, and thus lacks proper focus, 6) the different agents involved in land markets are not always taken into account, and finally, 7) the explanations for the unpredictable aspects of land value are sporadic. This article explores each of these areas of ambiguity.     

The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate

In this paper, we test whether firms properly adjust for risk in their capital budgeting decisions. If managers use a single discount rate within firms, we expect that conglomerates underinvest (overinvest) in relatively safe (risky) divisions. We measure division relative risk as the difference between the division's asset beta and a firm‐wide beta. We establish a robust and significant positive relationship between division‐level investment and division relative risk. Next, we measure the value loss due to this behavior in the context of acquisitions. When the bidder's beta is lower than that of the target, announcement returns are significantly lower.     

Efficient Management of Insecure Fossil Fuel Imports through Taxing Domestic Green Energy?

A small open economy produces a consumer good as well as renewable (green) and fossil fuel based (brown) energy. It imports fossil fuel at an uncertain price and suffers from carbon emission damages. Unregulated competitive markets are shown to be inefficient. The implied market failures are due to the agents' attitudes toward risk, to risk shifting, and the uniform price for both types of energy. Under the plausible assumptions that consumers are prudent and at least as risk‐averse as the producers of brown energy, the risk can be efficiently managed by placing a tariff on fuel imports (which is equivalent to taxing carbon emissions in the model at hand) and taxing green energy. The need to tax green energy contradicts the widespread view that subsidization of green energy is an appropriate means to enhance energy security in countries depending on risky fossil fuel imports.     

ECONOMICS OF THE "CRITICAL USE" OF METHYL BROMIDE UNDER THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL

We analyze the economics of granting temporary exceptions to the phaseout of methyl bromide (MeBr) under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The protocol allows such exceptions based on technical or economic "feasibility" through a critical use exemption (CUE) process. Data compiled under the protocol make it possible to set forth criteria for the exceptions based on estimation of the benefits of compliance in terms of "willingness to pay" to abate the externality, as well as costs to the users creating the externality. We estimate a political willingness to pay and show that market and supply effects would reduce losses to MeBr users below estimates of such losses provided in CUE nominations. This suggests that the phaseout of MeBr can proceed with considerably fewer CUEs than requested by the parties. (JEL Q1 , Q2 , Q3 , H8 )