创新的农民与农民的创新——对一次农民奋斗创新奖评选结果的浅析

创新活动是农民发展生产、摆脱贫困的重要途经.依据对一次农民奋斗创新奖评选活动所产生的样本资料的分析可以看出,农民具有很强的自主创新意识,但会受到济环境变迁、市场条件变化、外部信息来源以及基础设施条件的影响.创新型农民是农业"现代化"过程事的中坚力量,是农村发展的仙源性动力,因此鼓励、发现和支持农村青年在本地的创业行为.     

Improving risk classification and ratemaking using mixture-of-experts models with random effects

In the underwriting and pricing of nonlife insurance products, it is essential for the insurer to utilize both policyholder information and claim history to ensure profitability and proper risk management. In this paper, we apply a flexible regression model with random effects, called the Mixed Logit-weighted Reduced Mixture-of-Experts, which leverages both policyholder information and their claim history, to categorize policyholders into groups with similar risk profiles, and to determine a premium that accurately captures the unobserved risks. Estimates of model parameters and the posterior distribution of random effects can be obtained by a stochastic variational algorithm, which is numerically efficient and scalable to large insurance portfolios. Our proposed framework is shown to outperform the classical benchmark models (Logistic and Lognormal GL(M)M) in terms of goodness-of-fit to data, while offering intuitive and interpretable characterization of policyholders' risk profiles to adequately reflect their claim history.