Predicting Household Poverty: A Methodological Note with a Kenyan Example

Household surveys provide data that is used for identifying and measuring the poverty status of households and individuals. However, carrying out such surveys is expensive, especially in poor developing countries. Thus it is important to make maximum use of the available survey data in developing countries, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa, where such data are expensive to collect and analyse. This paper develops a simple method for using poverty indices derived from survey data for a given year, to predict poverty rates for subsequent periods without having to conduct a new household survey. We illustrate the workings of the method with data from Kenyan household surveys for 1994 and 1997.     

Facilitating Global Organizational Learning in Product Development at Whirlpool Corporation

The challenges of leveraging learning about product development in a global company are complex. Whirlpool Corporation is addressing these challenges, using a multidimensional strategy that couples work in advanced products and product development with organization development and training. Deborah Durate and Nancy Snyder describe how Whirlpool has implemented training, best practices conferences, and programs focused on enhancing the performance of product development teams to facilitate learning after product development efforts and to leverage that learning on a global basis. Programs and processes are described, and lessons learned as well as guidelines for development are offered.     

Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues

Abstract.  The interest in the application of market discipline to regulate the financial industry has boomed recently due to the proposed New Capital Accord. This paper reviews the potential role market discipline can play in financial regulation. We start with a discussion of the rationale for financial regulation and with a brief history of the current regulatory mechanisms. Next, a definition of market discipline as a regulatory mechanism is advanced. We evaluate the disciplining power various market participants have. Finally, we argue that more external risk management disclosure is a condition sine qua non in order to enable market discipline as a regulatory mechanism. In this respect, the Basle Committee has taken the right approach.     

How Does a Development Moratorium Affect Development Timing Choices and Land Values?

This paper investigates how a development moratorium affects choices of development timing and land values in a framework where both the value of developed property evolves stochastically and the development costs are fully irreversible. We assume that a regulator initially announces that land is not allowed to be developed during a finite period of time in the future. A developer, thus, must decide whether to develop land before the timing ordinance is imposed, or after it expires. The development moratorium reduces the developer’s option value from waiting and, thus, accelerates development. We also use simulation analysis to demonstrate how the other factors that relate to the demand and supply conditions of the real estate market affect this accelerating effect.     

HOUSEHOLD AND ENTERPRISE SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION IN THE UNITED STATES: A MARKET TRANSACTIONS VIEW

Contrary to conventional macro theory, it is not the consumption function in terms of either the permanent income or the life-cycle theory of saving that has furnished the saving for enterprise capital formation in the United States. Household sector accounts indicate that household gross saving, correctly measured, did not exceed household gross capital formation in the United States over the period since 1947. Furthermore, historical data on enterprise saving and capital formation in the United States, and cross-section tax return data of U.S. corporations indicate that the gross saving for many enterprise sectors has been equal to or greater than their gross capital formation. There are exceptions, however: these same sources indicate that public utilities have borrowed substantially to finance their capital formation. Finally, it is argued that employer pension and insurance reserves held by financial institutions for future benefit payments represent retained income of a nature similar to undistributed profits, and that these constitute a source of saving in the economy.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

Determinants of Canadian bilateral aid allocations: humanitarian,commercial or political?

Abstract.  In this paper we examine the determinants of the allocation of Canadian bilateral aid over the period 1984–2000. We draw on models of donor behaviour that allow us to incorporate humanitarian, commercial and political considerations – the 'trinity of mixed motives'– that affect Canadian aid. We find that allocations are moderately altruistic. Recipient country human rights and membership in the Commonwealth and La Francophonie also affect aid flows. Most strikingly, our results suggest that Canadian aid flows became less altruistic over this period and commercial motives became increasingly important. JEL Classification: H50, O10