Optimal simple rules and the lower bound on the nominal interest rate in the Christiano–Eichenbaum–Evans model of the US business cycle

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (NBER wp 10724, 2004b) analyzes the optimal, simple and implementable monetary policy rules in a medium-scale macromodel, as the one proposed by Christiano et al. (J Polit Econ 113:1–45, 2005). In doing so, they use a sensible, but somewhat arbitrary constraint to account for the lower bound condition on the nominal interest rate. In this work, we check the robustness of their main results to such a criteria. We find that the optimal policies are actually absolutely robust to the easing of this criterion for all the different cases considered.

Increasing Returns,Learning-By-Doing And Neural Networks ∗

In this paper we draw an analogy between the process of learning-bydoing and the learning process which develops in a neural network context. The bridging tool we refer to is a dynamic production function whose only variable input is labour. By concentrating on the ‘neural network production function’ we show that the learning process can lead to increasing returns. The simulations show that when learning is characterized by an upper limit. returns are increasing for some time, while in the long run they go back to the level where they are constant.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH INTO RETAIL PRICES

We study exchange rate pass‐through and its determinants using scanner data on fast moving consumer goods sold by 1,041 outlets in the United Arab Emirates between 2006 and 2010. The data are augmented with country of origin information. Our main finding is that exchange rate pass‐through varies more across retailers within regions than across regions, and in particular that pass‐through increases with retailer market share. We also find that exchange rate pass‐through is negatively correlated with both product quality and the elasticity of substitution of the product category and positively correlated with the frequency of price adjustment.     

Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline

There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price elasticities of − 1.5 to − 0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories - namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants - will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets.     

Intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurial intentions

We draw on cross-cultural theory and the Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness project to develop a model for the transmission of entrepreneurial intentions within families in different cultures. Using data on more than 40,000 individuals from 15 countries, we show that beyond the transmission of entrepreneurial intentions from parents to children, grandparents – either directly or “indirectly” via the parents – impact the offspring's intentions. Moreover, we find that parents' and grandparents' influences partly substitute for one another. The strength of these effects varies across cultures. Our results provide a more detailed picture of the intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurial intentions.     

Robust Small Area Estimation under Spatial Non‐stationarity

The effective use of spatial information in a regression‐based approach to small area estimation is an important practical issue. One approach to account for geographic information is by extending the linear mixed model to allow for spatially correlated random area effects. An alternative is to include the spatial information by a non‐parametric mixed models. Another option is geographic weighted regression where the model coefficients vary spatially across the geography of interest. Although these approaches are useful for estimating small area means efficiently under strict parametric assumptions, they can be sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose robust extensions of the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor. In particular, we introduce robust projective and predictive estimators under spatial non‐stationarity. Mean squared error estimation is performed by two analytic approaches that account for the spatial structure in the data. Model‐based simulations show that the methodology proposed often leads to more efficient estimators. Furthermore, the analytic mean squared error estimators introduced have appealing properties in terms of stability and bias. Finally, we demonstrate in the application that the new methodology is a good choice for producing estimates for average rent prices of apartments in urban planning areas in Berlin.     

Adolescents’ perceived brand deprivation stress and its implications for corporate and consumer well‐being

Stress can impact various aspects of a person's well‐being. While some researchers have suggested that consumption‐related activities may cause stress, no research has yet explored such stress among vulnerable, younger consumers. To better understand this phenomenon, the concept of adolescents’ perceived brand deprivation stress (BDS) is introduced as a state of tension perceived negatively by a young consumer when he or she does not have specific brands from a particular product category. In a series of three studies with adolescents aged 11–17 years, a reliable and valid measure of BDS is developed and a framework encompassing antecedents and consequences of it is tested. This research demonstrates that an adolescent's peer group compared to the media exerts the strongest influence on BDS which is also affected by product involvement and age. In turn, stress influences both brand purchase intentions and psychosomatic illnesses, with the latter being reduced by consumer self‐confidence. The studies show that BDS is real, but seemingly problematic for only a small portion of vulnerable adolescents. The findings suggest that marketers should be cautious when targeting young consumers and that educational programs aimed at developing consumer skills and confidence in adolescents are advisable.     

Truth or precision? Some reflections on the economists’ failure to predict the financial crisis

The failure of professional economic forecasters to predict the financial crises has led many to question the credibility of modern economics as a reliable foundation for economic policy. If economists were unable to foresee so big a crisis, how can they be trusted to cure or prevent it? Several accounts of this failure exist. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be drawn from the wisdom of a short list of past and present economists: Hayek, Neville Keynes, Mankiw, Tinbergen, Maynard Keynes and Lucas. The glue to keep such an odd bunch together is the distinction between truth and precision provided by science historian Ted Porter.     

The effect of context attractiveness on product attractiveness and product quality: the moderating role of product familiarity

Prior research has investigated a number of drivers of consumers’ perceived product attractiveness, such as a product’s shape and color. The context, in which a product is presented, has so far been largely neglected in examining consumers’ aesthetic appraisal of products. Drawing on social cognition theory, this research investigates how the attractiveness of the visual context (e.g., websites, advertisements) influences consumers’ perceptions of product attractiveness and product quality for familiar versus unfamiliar products. Results of two experimental studies show that consumers perceive unfamiliar products as more attractive and, consequently, of higher quality when products are placed in an attractive context than when they are placed in an unattractive context. No differences in consumers’ perceived product attractiveness and perceived product quality exist for familiar products. The findings extend our theoretical knowledge of product aesthetics and provide managers with insights into the effective communication of their offerings’ attractiveness.     

An independent central bank faced with elected governments

The literature argues that the benefits of an independent central bank accrue at no cost to the real side. In this paper, we argue that the lack of correlation between monetary autonomy and output variability is due to the proactive role of fiscal policy when faced with rigid monetary objectives. Few of the attempts to measure these correlations actually allow for a changing fiscal role. Yet, when an independent authority handles monetary policy, fiscal and wage/social protection policies remain instruments in the hands of elected governments. We find that, so long as the two authorities pursue their goals independently of each other, a conflict arises that becomes stronger as preferences diverge. We also find that the establishment of a conservative central bank encourages more divergent preferences among the public (as reflected in the government that is elected). The election of more interventionist governments then makes it harder for either authority to reach its own preferred objectives, unless cooperation is possible.