Asset management in the German insurance industry: the quality of interest rate forecasts

Chopra and Ziemba (J.?Portf. Manag. 19: 6?C11, 1993) show that for asset only allocations the return forecasts are more important than assumptions about the variance-covariance matrix of the returns. Following Basse et al. (ZVersWiss 96: 617?C648, 2007) the same holds true for the asset liability management (ALM) of insurance companies. Given the high quotas of bonds in the real as well as optimized insurance portfolios, interest rate forecasts are of exceptional importance. Therefore this paper examines some of these estimates for the European market using techniques of time series analysis. A?set of criteria for the evaluation of the forecasts is presented. While some results seem to be quite favorable for forecasters, others indicate that none of the analyzed forecasts seems to provide relevant information about the future development. There is lot of evidence showing that interest rates are very difficult to predict. Some hints clearly point towards herd behavior among forecasters.     

External funding of major capital projects in the UK Higher Education sector: issues of demand,supply and market timing?

The aim of this paper is to consider the sources of finance used to support major capital expenditure in the UK Higher Education sector and to reflect on any differences between traditional corporate finance theory and practice in the UK university sector. Utilising both HESA data returns and published annual accounts, an in-depth analysis using a logit structure is carried out on data from the top 63 UK universities over the period 2014–2017, to establish the range of funding sources adopted for major capital projects, all set within the context of the UK macro environment and a period of low interest rates. The research also carries out a survey of funders to understand the decision criteria used by lenders active in the Higher Education sector and a survey of university finance directors to determine the use of the funds, the reasons behind past lending decisions and to ascertain likely future demand for finance to fund major capital projects.     

Market perceptions of discretionary accruals by debt renegotiating firms during economic downturn

This study addresses how a stock market prices earnings components around a sudden and severe economic downturn. In particular, the study examines the market valuation of discretionary accruals for debt renegotiating Malaysian firms during the Asian financial crisis. Our analysis shows that negative discretionary accruals for debt renegotiating firms are associated with higher market values of equity and are not related to the firms' future earnings. These findings are consistent with investors placing a positive value on the probability that negative accruals increase the likelihood that concessions can be extracted from lenders during renegotiation. In contrast, discretionary accruals for a control sample of non-debt renegotiating firms are not significantly associated with stock prices but are positively associated with future earnings.     

The Aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, the article analyzes the aftermathof civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses oncases where the end of conflict marks the beginning of relativelylasting peace. The analysis considers 41 countries involvedin internal wars over the period 1960–2003. To providea comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, a rangeof social areas is considered: basic indicators of economicperformance, health and education, political development, demographictrends, and conflict and security issues. For each indicatorthe post- and pre-war situations are compared and their dynamictrends during the post-conflict period are examined. The analysisis conducted in both absolute terms and relative to controlgroups of countries that are similar except for conflict. Thefindings indicate that even though war has devastating effectsand its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end ofwar marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvementare achieved.     

Do S&P 500 index options violate the martingale restriction?

The study tests Longstaff's martingale restriction on S&P 500 index options over the period 1990–1994. Assuming the S&P index follows a lognormal distribution results in systematic violations of the martingale restriction, the implied index value from options consistently overestimating the market value. Adopting a generalized distribution, allowing for nonnormal third and fourth moments, produces economically insignificant rejections of the martingale restriction. A simulation analysis supports the empirical results from the lognormal model in the presence of nonnormal skewness and kurtosis. Overall, the results support the conclusion that the no-arbitrage assumption coupled with the generalized distribution offers a good working model for S&P index options over the period studied. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 499–521, 1999     

The Effects of Compensation Structures and Monetary Rewards on Managers’ Decisions to Blow the Whistle

Recent research indicates that compensation structure can be used by firms to discourage their employees from whistleblowing. We extend the ethics literature by examining how compensation structures and financial rewards work together to influence managers’ decisions to blow the whistle. Results from an experiment indicate that compensation with restricted stock, relative to stock payments that lack restrictions, can enhance the likelihood that managers will blow the whistle when large rewards are available. However, restricted stock can also threaten the effectiveness of whistleblowing systems without the presence of large financial rewards for whistleblowing. Thus, the large potential rewards for whistleblowing enacted by the Dodd–Frank Act appear timely as firms are moving toward compensation agreements that include greater proportions of restricted stock.     

Setting and vetting strategy: Bridging the chasm between CEOs and boards

One of directors’ key fiduciary duties is to set the firm’s direction and then vet the strategy proposed by the CEO. Despite this, McKinsey reports that the majority of directors feel they do not understand their firm’s strategy, and even if they do understand it, they do not feel they have the desired impact on their firm’s strategy. This article argues that this shortfall stems from a failure to cross the chasm between CEOs and directors. We propose a framework to bridge this gap and assist board members to better understand and vet their firm’s strategy.     

Evaluating Service Marketing in Airline Industry and Its Influence on Student Passengers' Purchasing Behavior Using Taipei–London Route as an Example

This article reports an empirical study into airline consumer purchase behavior on a major global route between the United Kingdom (UK) and Taipei. It focuses on the factors influencing airline choice for a sample of 60 Taiwanese students based at UK Universities and traveling on five airlines: British Airways, Cathay Pacific Airways, China Airlines, EVA Airways, and Royal Dutch Airways. Several stages of data gathering were undertaken and a well‐established analytical framework for services marketing was used to identify gaps between the desired and received service. The main findings suggest that service quality, including in‐flight entertainment, cabin crew attitude, and seating comfort, can be as important as, or more important than, price in student purchase decisions for long‐haul flights. Other important factors in carrier choice included student discounts, baggage allowances, and airline safety record.