Tax on emissions or subsidy to renewables? Evaluating the effects on the economy and on the environment

We examine the relationship between the economy and the environment in a model where production uses nonpolluting renewable and polluting nonrenewable resources. There is policy intervention through a tax on emissions and a subsidy to renewables extraction/production. Results show that both instruments are able to decrease emissions intensity of output. However, when used together, the desired effect is higher. Empirically it is shown that the subsidy achieves higher renewables intensity and although present emissions per output are similar for both instruments, the subsidy achieves lower future levels.     

Combination forecasts of tourism demand with machine learning models

The main objective of this study is to analyse whether the combination of regional predictions generated with machine learning (ML) models leads to improved forecast accuracy. With this aim, we construct one set of forecasts by estimating models on the aggregate series, another set by using the same models to forecast the individual series prior to aggregation, and then we compare the accuracy of both approaches. We use three ML techniques: support vector regression, Gaussian process regression and neural network models. We use an autoregressive moving average model as a benchmark. We find that ML methods improve their forecasting performance with respect to the benchmark as forecast horizons increase, suggesting the suitability of these techniques for mid- and long-term forecasting. In spite of the fact that the disaggregated approach yields more accurate predictions, the improvement over the benchmark occurs for shorter forecast horizons with the direct approach.     

R&D intensity,economic growth and firm-size growth: theory and practice

This article proposes a theoretical knowledge-driven horizontal research and development (R&D) endogenous-growth model to explain, for 10 innovative countries, the co-movement of the respective R&D intensity, economic growth and firm-size growth, by exploring short-medium-run and long-run growth effects. Bearing in mind some recent literature, we improve the R&D technology, by considering that R&D is more labour intensive through time as complexity increases, that the diffusion of designs is affected by coordination, organizational and transportation costs, and that a potential entrant will come up with the right idea is reduced because of the presence of a larger number of entrants. We show that when the economy is not initially in a steady state, it can take a saddle path towards the unique and locally saddle-path stable interior steady state. Both transitional-dynamics and steady-state behaviours of our theoretical model are then consistent with, respectively, the time-series and the cross-sectional evidence.     

Beta spatial linear mixed model with variable dispersion using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood

We propose a beta spatial linear mixed model with variable dispersion using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. The proposed method is useful for those situations where the response variable is a rate or a proportion. An approach to the spatial generalized linear mixed models using the Box–Cox transformation in the precision model is presented. Thus, the parameter optimization process is developed for both the spatial mean model and the spatial variable dispersion model. All the parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Statistical inference over the parameters is performed using approximations obtained from the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. Diagnosis and prediction of a new observation are also developed. The method is illustrated with the analysis of one simulated case and two studies: clay and magnesium contents. In the clay study, 147 soil profile observations were taken from the research area of the Tropenbos Cameroon Programme, with explanatory variables: elevation in metres above sea level, agro‐ecological zone, reference soil group and land cover type. In the magnesium content, the soil samples were taken from 0‐ to 20‐cm‐depth layer at each of the 178 locations, and the response variable is related to the spatial locations, altitude and sub‐region.     

The reform of the EU budget: Finding new own resources

The following paper addresses the ongoing debate on the questions of the composition and fi nancing of the European Union’s common budget. The authors argue in favour of a significant enlargement of the budget, together with a profound reform of its composition and financing.     

The effects of multinationals on host economies: A CGE approach

This paper offers a new perspective regarding the effects on a host economy of the entry of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, through a version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model extended to incorporate MNEs. The analysis is applied to the Czech Republic, a country that has received substantial inflows of foreign direct investment in the last few years. A special attention has been paid to the issue of profit repatriation. We find that the negative effects of profit repatriation are sizeable, and might even offset the positive impact of the entry of MNEs.     

Salesperson’s accent as a globalization issue

This study provides a test for the ability of Tajfel’s theory to explain how the relationship between salesperson accents and country affect consumer purchase intentions. The theory predicts that the most influential salesperson will be the person who speaks with the standard accent for a particular country. Consistent with Tajfel’s theory, this study concluded that for an American audience, the most influential salesperson would be an individual who represents the standard for the United States—an American‐English‐accented salesperson. However, the results of a Mexican study in four Mexican cities indicated that both a Mexican‐Spanish‐ and an American‐English‐Spanish‐accented salesperson had a similar impact on consumer purchase intentions. The implications for a multinational firm’s salesforce management strategy are discussed. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach

Intervening in the FX market implies a complex decision process for central banks. Monetary authorities have to decide whether to intervene or not, and if so, when and how. Since the successive steps of this procedure are likely to be highly interdependent, we adopt a nested logit approach to capture their relationships and to characterize the prominent features of the various steps of the intervention decision process. Our estimations based on Japanese data from 1991 to 2004 indicate that the Bank of Japan: (i) mainly reacted to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to fundamentals and (ii) tended to favour secrecy when its credibility was low. We also provide new insights on the so-called secrecy puzzle by modeling explicitly the risk for a secret intervention to be detected. Our results have important implications in terms of exchange rate policy, such as the emergence of a trade-off between intervention size, communication policy and secrecy. Our results tend to provide some explanation for the observed persistence of ineffective intervention policy during some sub-periods.     

Urban food markets and their sustainability: the compatibility of traditional and tourist uses

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of urban food markets as tourist icons in the current competitive race to create attractive cities. Food markets attract a large number of consumers, both local and tourists. However, their impact on the city and its dynamics should be treated to establish measures to ensure sustainable (compatible) uses for both kinds of users. This calls for the establishment of a system of indicators to determine what level of sustainability food markets are at and facilitate decision-making for the agents involved in their management.     

Public export credit insurance in the Netherlands: An input–output approach

This study assesses the contribution of the Dutch public export credit insurance facility (ECIF) to Dutch GDP and employment. Unlike previous studies concerning export credit insurance, which generally adopt the gravity model of trade, we adopt an input–output approach. The results show that the contribution of economic activity insured by the public ECIF to GDP averages 0.24% annually. This concerns value added generated both by exporters and by their domestic suppliers in the value chain. The contribution to employment shows an average of 0.27%, accumulating to 95,000 jobs (FTE) over 5 years. The estimated contribution of the public ECIF to the Dutch economy should be considered an upper boundary of its true contribution. Therefore, we examine the extent to which the above economic gains would be realised if the facility was unavailable using highly disaggregated trade data. The basic idea is that if certain products are only exported to certain destinations with the aid of the public ECIF, then this indicates a high degree of additionality. The inconclusiveness of our results underlines the difficulties in assessing the degree of additionality.