Where Are Saskatchewan Farmland Prices Headed?

An adaptive expectation model is employed to estimate Saskatchewan farmland values based on land rent. The estimated model is then used to forecast future agricultural land values, given a number of commodity price scenarios. The model illustrates the importance of expectations in the farmland purchase decision. Furthermore, it explains why swings in land prices tend to lag behind what current financial conditions would suggest. Nous avons utilisé un modèle adaptable de détermination des attentes pour déterminer la valeur des terres agricoles de la Saskatchewan à partir du prix de location. Le modèle estimatif est ensuite utilisé pour prévoir la valeur future des terres agricoles, compte tenu ?un certain nombre de scénarios ?évolution des prix des produits. Le modèle montre ?importance des attentes des gens dans les décisions ?achat de terres agricoles. Il explique en outre pourquoi les variations observérs dans les prix des terres ont tendance à marquer un certain retard par rapport à ce que les conditions financières existantes devraient laisser prévoir.     

Een criterium voor het kiezen van een proefopzet

A characterization of D-optimality is given together with several examples where D-optimal designs are computed.     

Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates*

When variables are correlated in time-series studies, it is often difficult to determine which is cause and effect, and in what sense. This paper applies multivariate time-series tests of causality to Australian wage, price, minimum wage award, labour demand and strike (working days lost) variables for 1953-76. The results provide tentative support for a model in which strikes are exogenous:the size of Arbitration Commission awards is determined by strikes (suggesting that a trade union capture theory of Arbitration Commission regulation may apply):money wages are determined by minimum wage awards; and the demand for labour variable (measured in this paper by the ratio of actual to potential output) is determined (in a negative relationship) by money wages.     

Dichotomous decisions based on dichotomously scored items: a case study

In a course in elementary statistics for psychology students using criterion-referenced achievement tests, the total test score, based on dichotomously scored items, was used for classifying students into those who passed and those who failed. The score on a test is considered as depending on a latent variable; it is assumed that the students can be dichotomized into the categories “mastery” (with scores on the latent variable above a cutting score), and “no mastery” (with scores below the cutting score on the latent variable). Two problems are considered: (a) How many students are classified incorrectly? Using the binomial error model a procedure is described for computing the classification proportions: p(mastery, passed), p(mastery, failed), p(no mastery, passed), and p(no mastery, failed), (b) What is the optimal cutting score on a test? Using a loss function a procedure for computing the optimal curring score is described.     

A proposed Procedure for Facilitating the Analysis of Lease-Purchase Decisions by Consumers

Advertising extolling the advantages of leasing an automobile is increasing, leading many consumers to ask whether leasing makes sense as an alternative to ownership. This paper sets forth a simple procedure which professional financial advisors and educators can use to help consumers make this decision. The procedure can be applied to any buy-lease decision. In what follows, key variables in the buy-lease decision are identified, and an example using actual data is presented to illustrate the procedure.