Two months in the life of several gilt-edged market makers on the London Stock Exchange

We investigate the micro structure of the UK gilt market studying the behaviour of several gilt-edged market makers on the London Stock Exchange. Through a structural model of the price process we can test different microstructural hypotheses, concerning information asymmetries, transaction and inventory carrying costs, and market liquidity. Our results suggest that inventories do not alter the price process in the gilt market. Moreover, in contrast to customer orders, inter-dealer transactions possess an information content. Transaction costs in the inter-dealer market are also substantially smaller than those for external customers.     

Social Change: Measurement and Theory*

Societal change, which takes a variety of directions and forms and in no way can be assimilated or reduced to a single dimension, is often accompanied by a perception of insufficient understanding and lack of control. There is a frustrated need for mastering complexity and instability, separating the voluntary from the involuntary, the intended from the unintended, opportunities from risks, getting to the real causes and dominating the uncertain implications of social change. Social change catches us unprepared and confused. In this context statistics are generally considered a fundamental instrument of knowledge, but also part of the problem! In the public debate and in the specialized literature, the ability to measure social phenomena through current statistics and indicators is increasingly questioned. Data-it is claimed-are lacking, particularly longitudinal data; their quality (accuracy, relevance, timeliness, comparability, etc.) should be improved; indicators do not provide early warning signals, policy performance evaluation, and a precise indication of outcomes. Statistics cannot be used as a reliable and timely basis for decision making by individuals, organizations, governments, and for understanding these decisions. In some cases, statistics have been accused of giving a misleading and false picture of reality: do we measure the real extent of social exclusion and unemployment? Do we fully capture the quality of life and the degradation of the environment? Mismeasurement has been deemed by some commentators as being responsible for the wrong focus in inflation and stabilization policies, science and technology, unemployment and poverty. The productivity paradox, the informal economy, failure to measure welfare and the quality of urban life are instances where statistics do not seem to provide complete and satisfactory answers to the demand for information and knowledge. Our paper illustrates how, quite independently of measurement techniques and data production processes, the inadequacy of the conceptual framework may explain mismeasurement in relation to complex (multidimensional) and dynamic social phenomena. It is then to social theories, explanations and interpretations that statisticians need to turn, in order to come to grips with the new challenges in social measurement. We will develop this thesis looking at a few cases where measurement issues can be connected to both theoretical and empirical difficulties. The statistical gap which reveals itself in the mismeasurement or difficult measurement of social phenomena is closely interconnected with the social science gap. Only close collaboration between statisticians and social scientists can bring about continuous advancement in social science and quality improvement in social statistics.     

Homoclinic bifurcation and global indeterminacy of equilibrium in a two-sector endogenous growth model

This paper considers an endogenous growth model that belongs to the same family as the Lucas model. In the Lucas model an external effect appears in the physical-goods sector, whereas in our model, it appears in the educational sector. In our model, this external effect yields multiple balanced growth paths. Our model undergoes a homoclinic bifurcation and exhibits global indeterminacy of equilibrium.     

The Perception of Inequality of Opportunity in Europe

Does the way in which scholars measure inequality of opportunity correspond to how people perceive it? What other factors influence individual perception of this phenomenon? To answer these questions, we must first clarify how scholars define and measure inequality of opportunity. We discuss the possible mechanisms linking objective measures to subjective perception of the phenomenon, then propose a measure of perceived inequality of opportunity, and finally test our hypothesis by merging data from two sources: the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (2011) and the International Social Survey Programme (2009). We suggest that the prevailing perception of the degree of unequal opportunity in a large sample of respondents is only weakly correlated with its objective measure. We estimate a multilevel model considering both individual‐ and country‐level controls to explain individual perception of unequal opportunity. Our estimates suggest that the two most adopted measures of inequality of opportunity have no clear role in explaining its perception. Conversely, other country‐level variables and personal experiences of intergenerational social mobility are important determinants of how inequality of opportunity is perceived.     

Productivity and profitability analysis of large Italian companies: 1998–2002

The determinants of profitability and productivity for large Italian companies operating in industrial sectors are investigated in this paper. Data were taken from one of the most important Italian business surveys, and furthermore two cross-section surveys for the years 1998 and 2002 are compared. The results highlight the importance of financial management and organisational complexity in order to explain the development of profitability and productivity ranking during 1998–2002. This paper identifies the important enterprise behaviour in terms of the variables considered. Large Italian companies remain competitive in the more traditional sectors (e.g. mechanics, textiles, etc.). In general, the Italian enterprises are not dynamic enough to compete in the most technological and innovative sectors. Moreover, there is the necessity for greater investments in order to foster the national economy.

Carry Trade Returns with Support Vector Machines

This paper proposes a novel approach to directional forecasts for carry trade strategies based on support vector machines (SVMs), a learning algorithm that delivers extremely promising results. Building on recent findings in the literature on carry trade, we condition the SVM on indicators of uncertainty and risk. We show that this provides a dramatic performance improvement in strategy, particularly during periods of financial distress such as the recent financial crises. Disentangling the measures of risk, we show that conditioning the SVM on measures of liquidity risk rather than on market volatility yields the best performance.     

R&D spillovers and employment: evidence from European patent data

In this paper we investigate the role of patents in the relationship between R&D activity, spillovers and employment at the firm level. A reduced-form labour demand equation is estimated. Our analysis is based upon a dataset consisting of 879 R&D-intensive manufacturing firms worldwide for which information was collected for the period 2002–2010. We use data from all EU R&D investment scoreboard editions issued every year until 2011 by the JRC-IPTS (scoreboards). Since the innovation output of the industrial strategy of every firm is the number of patents, the main contribution to the existing literature is to investigate also the impact of patents/R&D ratio and patents/spillovers ratio on employment level. The empirical results suggest a significant impact of R&D spillover effects on company employment although the results differ substantially according to the spillover stock, which may considerably affect policy implications.     

Inflation Aversion and Exit Probabilities in the Monetary Unions

The paper considers a monetary union composed of two representative countries characterized by different inflation aversions. The model derives Nash equilibria after a country-specific shock in which the countries have a costly option to abandon the common currency. The main results are that the higher the inflation aversion of the country affected by the shock, the lower its exit probability. The higher the inflation aversion in both countries, the lower the probability that the country not directly hit also abandons the monetary union (contagion).