Repoliticization Through Search and Rescue? Humanitarian NGOs and Migration Management in the Central Mediterranean

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the search and rescue (SAR) activities carried out by three NGOs (MOAS, MSF and Sea-Watch) in the Central Mediterranean, and asks whether and in how far non-governmental SAR contributes to the repoliticization of the EU maritime border. The article first introduces the concept of depoliticization/repoliticization, as well as that of humanitarianization. Two sections summarize the development of the SAR regime and the governmentalization of international waters in the Strait of Sicily from the Cap Anamur case to 2016, and from late 2016 to recent days. Against this backdrop, the article analyses the different political positions taken by MOAS, MSF and Sea-Watch, their operational activities, as well as their cooperation and relations with the other actors involved in SAR. The three NGOs react differently to the contradictions that are typical of humanitarian non-state action. MOAS keeps a neutral political profile, whereas MSF and Sea-Watch regard their SAR activities as part of a political, not only humanitarian commitment. While the convergence of delocalized state sovereignty and humanitarian reason leaves hardly any room for manoeuvre, MSF and Sea-Watch try to question and contrast governmental policies and practices, as well as to turn international waters into a political stage from which they can make their voice heard and on which they can play the watchdog role.     

The Comprehensive Assessment: What lessons can be learned?

Analysing the database made available by the European Central Bank and by the European Banking Authority, we evaluate the Comprehensive Assessment (CA) (Asset Quality Review and Stress Test (ST)) of banks carried out in 2014. In a nutshell, the main results are: (i) risk-adjusted capital ratios are negatively related to the Asset Quality Review shortfall, but not to the ST shortfall, whereas the leverage ratio plays a significant role in both cases; (ii) the CA predominantly concentrated on traditional credit activity rather than on banks’ financial assets and (iii) the CA seems to be characterized by double standards. The Asset Quality Review was severe with banks operating in non-core countries, while medium-sized banks were either riskier or were treated severely in both exercises. The analysis leads to a puzzle: comparatively, the assessment per se led to significant adjustments for solid banks and large shortfalls for weak banks. The puzzle can be resolved by referring to the legacy of the country’s former supervisory activity and to the low level of capitalization of weak banks mostly in peripheral countries.

Abbreviations: ADJ_AQR: adjustment due to the AQR; ADJ_ST: adjustment due to the ST adverse scenario; AQR: asset quality review; bps: basis points (1?bp is equal to 0.01%); bn: billion; CA: comprehensive assessment; CET1: common equity tier 1; CR: coverage ratio; CRD/CRR: capital requirements directive/capital requirements regulation; CVA: credit valuation adjustment; EBA: European Banking Authority; ECB: European Central Bank; LM test: Lagrange-multiplier test; NPE: Non-performing exposure; RWA: risk-weighted asset; SF_AQR: shortfall due to the AQR; SF_ST: shortfall due to the ST adverse scenario; SREP: supervisory review and evaluation process; SSM: single supervisory mechanism; ST: stress test; tr: trillion (one thousand of billions)     

Bank competition and regional differences

We estimate banks' conduct for Italian regions, then regress the behavioural parameters on selected indicators of local banking market structure and macroeconomic performance. This allows to identify some factors explaining why banks exhibit different patterns of conduct across regions.     

Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?

There is a debate on whether some forms of financial flows offerbetter protection against crises than others. Using a largepanel data set that includes advanced, emerging, and developingeconomies during 1970–2003, this article analyzes thebehavior of several types of flows: foreign direct investment(FDI), portfolio equity investment, portfolio debt investment,other flows to the official sector, other flows to banks, andother flows to the nonbank private sector. Differences acrosstypes of flows are limited with respect to volatility, persistence,cross-country comovement, and correlation with growth at homeor in the world economy. However, consistent with conventionalwisdom, FDI is the least volatile form of financial flow, whenthe average size of net or gross flows is taken into account.The differences are striking during "sudden stops" in financialflows (defined as drops in total net financial inflows of morethan percentage points of GDP compared with the previous year).In such episodes, FDI is remarkably stable, and portfolio equityseems to play a limited role. Portfolio debt experiences a reversal,though it recovers relatively quickly, and other flows (includingbank loans and trade credit) experience severe drops and oftenremain depressed for a few years.     

Testing the Links between Institutional Integration and Trade Deepening: Clues from Europe

This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years. It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.

Theory and Practice of Contagion in Monetary Unions: Domino Effects in EMU Mediterranean Countries

This paper analyzes strategic interactions and contagion effects in the peripheral countries of a monetary union. Using game theory and cost-benefit analysis, the paper determines the set of equilibrium solutions under which country-specific shocks are transmitted to other member countries giving rise to contagion. Numerical simulations, obtained by a simple calibration of the model on some key Mediterranean countries of the Euro Zone, show the probabilities of contagion from Greece, Spain and Italy.     

Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty

The size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for arable crops is estimated. The impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision-making structure of the European Union (EU) arable crop producers under nonlinear mean-variance risk preferences. A system of output supply, input demand, and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of Italian specialized arable crop farms. The simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers' output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects.     

An inverse demand analysis with introduction of quality effects: an application to Spanish consumption of fruit and vegetables

This article analyzes consumer preference for fruit and vegetables when, by using time series with socioeconomic characteristics of households, there can be seemingly unobserved quality effects, which are increased by aggregation. The changes in Spanish demand for fresh and processed fruit and vegetables over the period 1987–2000 are discussed. Following previous tests and analyses, quantities are taken as predetermined and prices as matching the offer conditions. Thus, quality effects (based on the nutritional and/or health value of the product) are estimated from the error terms associated with the functions of the unit values. Quality variables are introduced as taste shifters in the inverse demand system (Laitinen–Theil model). The results show the positive effects of quality differences on the normalized price for the group of products through own‐quality flexibilities, and the negative effects between fresh and processed products through cross‐quality flexibilities.     

ROBUST PORTFOLIOS AND WEAK INCENTIVES IN LONG‐RUN INVESTMENTS

When the planning horizon is long, and the safe asset grows indefinitely, isoelastic portfolios are nearly optimal for investors who are close to isoelastic for high wealth, and not too risk averse for low wealth. We prove this result in a general arbitrage‐free, frictionless, semimartingale model. As a consequence, optimal portfolios are robust to the perturbations in preferences induced by common option compensation schemes, and such incentives are weaker when their horizon is longer. Robust option incentives are possible, but require several, arbitrarily large exercise prices, and are not always convex.     

关于宏观经济政策的若干反思

大稳健时期让宏观经济学家和政府决策者误以为大家已熟练掌握了宏观经济政策运用,本次危机显然对此观点提出了挑战。为此,国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家对危机前的宏观经济政策进行了重视审视,分析了主要共识,指出其中存在的失误,以及哪些危机前的框架原则当前仍能适用,并尝试建立新的宏观经济政策框架。建议应该对通货膨胀目标进行重视审视,协调运用货币政策和监管政策,统一通货膨胀目标制与汇率政策,更广泛地提供流动性,注意积蓄财政政策空间,设计更好的财政自动稳定机制。