Time series momentum and moving average trading rules

We compare and contrast time series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules so as to better understand the sources of their profitability. These rules are closely related; however, there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors, yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.     

Is consumer psychology research ready for today’s attention economy?

ABSTRACT

Attention has become an area of major interest in marketing research as a dependent or moderating variable. In this article, we argue for respondent attention as a pivotal part of any consumer psychology research protocol and highlight the risks of not incorporating realistic attention components into research design. We propose four areas where this approach can help the external validity of consumer psychology research. Our recommendations include accounting for variability in the baseline attention levels; smart use of distractions; allowing for variability in attention over the task and avoiding attention leading/assumptive questions.     

Gender differences in formal credit approaches: rural households in Vietnam

In Vietnam, women have poorer access to formal credit than men. This article determines the extent to which borrowing constraints restrict women’s access to formal credit and identifies the socioeconomic characteristics that determine formal credit discrimination. The study used secondary data from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) published in 2013–14, and analysis was undertaken by econometric approaches such as logistic and multiple linear regression models and propensity score matching methods. The results show that among those participants who successfully obtained credit, approximately 85 per cent of women obtained less credit than men; and the amount of credit that women obtained was also less (on average, approximately 1.8 per cent less). Gender, number of years of schooling, marital status, participation in agricultural activities, off‐farm employment, and ownership of agricultural land for a male‐headed household positively influenced discrimination in obtaining credit and the amount of credit obtained. Moreover, the propensity score matching results found that the average increase in the credit obtained by males was 220,000 Vietnamese Dong (VND) and this is mainly due to discrimination in favour of men. The results suggest that policy action is needed to avoid discrimination in credit disbursement on the basis of gender.     

What determines outstanding corporate debt mix? Evidence from fractional multinomial logit estimation

This study employs the fractional multinomial logit setting proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) to examine factors driving the choice among nonbank private (144A) debt, bank loans and public debt made by 988 nonfinancial firms during 1993–2007. We document that the majority of firm-level factors have persistent effects on corporate outstanding debt mix across economic conditions. We also highlight the importance of macroeconomic variables on firms’ borrowing decisions as predicted by Diamond (1991). Finally, we document a substitution effect among debt financing sources due to credit rating downgrades, which is inconsistent with Rauh and Sufi (2010).     

Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users

With Monte Carlo experiments on models in widespread use we examine the performance of indirect inference (II) tests of DSGE models in small samples. We compare these tests with ones based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio, LR). We find that both tests have power so that a substantially false model will tend to be rejected by both; but that the power of the II test is substantially greater, both because the LR is applied after re-estimation of the model error processes and because the II test uses the false model’s own restricted distribution for the auxiliary model’s coefficients. This greater power allows users to focus this test more narrowly on features of interest, trading off power against tractability.     

Government expenditure,external and domestic public debt,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between government expenditure, tax on returns to assets, public debt, and growth in an endogenous growth model. Public debt is composed of two components, domestic debt and external debt. We show conditions for existence, uniqueness, and multiplicity of the steady states. More precisely, existence of steady state requires a sufficiently high productivity and a sufficiently low tax on returns to assets. We also provide the effects of an increase in the tax rate on returns to assets on the steady state. In particular, the relation between public spending and the tax rate has a bell shape. Domestic debt unambiguously increases with tax whereas external debt displays an inverted U‐shaped curve. A high tax rate leads to a reallocation of public debt in favor of domestic debt (to the detriment of external debt). The effect of taxation on consumption (and production) also displays a nonlinear pattern when the output elasticity of capital is lower than unity (the effect is monotonously increasing if this elasticity is unity). We also derive the conditions under which a tax increase can boost or reduce the balanced growth rate.     

Reinforcing customer loyalty through service employees’ competence and benevolence

The present study aims to investigate how service employees’ competence and benevolence can influence customer loyalty. A hierarchical multiple regression with interaction analysis was performed on data collected from 1296 customers in a financial service provider. The results show a significant interaction between competence and benevolence in their influence on customer loyalty. These results reinforce the idea that benevolence can be used to enhance the effect of competence on customer loyalty. The managerial and research implications of the reported study are discussed.     

Are two brands better than one? Investigating the effects of co-branding in advertising on audience memory

Co-branded advertising, where advertisements feature two partnered brands from different categories, should ideally benefit both brands. We test this assertion by studying the effect of featuring a second brand in advertisements on ad and brand name memorability, and the role of category context on which brand is recalled. Our test covers online display advertisements for consumer-packaged brands paired with charity and retailer brands in three markets (USA, UK, and Australia). Independent sample comparisons across 54 brand pairs show that advertising two brands has a neutral effect on ad memorability and negative effect on brand memorability. Furthermore, the advertisement’s category context determines which of the brands is recalled. Our findings support a competitive interference theory of dual-brand processing, whereby the two brands compete for attention resources. The results have implications for the return on investment from advertising expenditure, which will vary substantively depending on whether the costs of advertising are shared or borne by one brand in the pair.     

Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability

We examine the relationship between the role of trade finance availability and the export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). In developing our hypotheses, we draw upon insights derived from “new” internalisation theory (international business literature) and international trade finance (international economics literature). We empirically test these hypotheses using survey data compiled from subsidiary managers in six ASEAN countries, supplemented with host-country level data. We conceptualise, empirically test, and establish that the subsidiary-level capability in combining and utilising internal and external debts is an important subsidiary-specific advantage to support export intensity. We find that subsidiaries employ intra-firm loans from MNE internal capital markets and, to some extent, bank loans from external financial institutions to boost their export intensity. Subsidiaries may have concerns about foreign exchange risks, but the use of appropriate foreign exchange risk management is positively associated with export intensity. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and practice.